The "Bernie versus everyone else" vote totalling is not just silly, it's also contrary to the data.

[DanTex]

One gratifying moment on MSNBC was when they interviewed a voter who told them that she moved to Bernie because she kept seeing anti-Bernie people on MSNBC going after him with obviously disingenuous arguments like "he's not doing as well as 2016." As she, and everyone else, knows, it's a whole different situation when there are five or six candidates in the mix.

It's also silly when people add up all the votes of the other candidates and compare it to Bernie, as if supporters of all other candidates are die-hard anti-Bernies. That may be the case with the pundit class, but not with the voters.

If you look at polls, (e.g. Morning Consult), the second choices supporters of non-Bernie candidates distribute in a way pretty similar to the first choices. Both Biden and Warren supporters have Bernie as the most popular second choice. Even Bloomberg, the most conservative candidate in the field, his supporters break down as 30 Biden, 17 Bernie, 17 Pete, 12 Warren for second choice, hardly the anti-Bernie firewall that people pretend it is. And Mayor Pete, the other "anti-Bernie" has second choices that go 20 Bloomberg, 19 Biden, 17 Bernie, 17 Warren.

[TwilightZone]

1. That assumes that the dynamics of the race haven't changed.

That would be a faulty assumption. If the primary goal of those moderate voters was to get rid of Trump, they may coalesce behind another moderate candidate instead of Sanders should theirs withdraw, particularly if they believe that Sanders would lose in November.

The race isn't the same as it was a week or two ago.

[DanTex]

3. That poll I cited was Feb 4-9.

I doubt that the primary goal of any moderate voters has changed drastically in the last five days. The argument that "a socialist will lose" has been around for at least four years, it's not like anyone heard that for the first time a week ago.

[TheFarseer]

5. That's more pundit-think

You’re just assuming Bernie is the weakest candidate in a general election. The polls don’t support that assumption.

[TwilightZone]

9. No, it's understanding how the electorate thinks.

Last edited Wed Feb 12, 2020, 11:09 AM - Edit history (1)

If a significant portion of the Democratic base thinks Sanders is going to lose in November, they will gravitate toward someone they believe can keep him from being the nominee.

We may already be seeing that happening. Sanders underperformed in both IA and NH, Buttigieg and Klobuchar overperformed in NH (and Pete in IA), and Bloomberg is picking up significant support, including minority support, the latter somewhat unexpectedly. Biden and Warren are in serious trouble, after each lead the race earlier in the cycle.

The problem with trying to predict is that the electorate isn't a monolith and can change on a whim. General election polls taken when the primaries have just started mean little. National polls at this time mean even less -- this election will be determined by six or seven states. They also can't account for months of hammering by the GOP media machine.

[denem]

2. The Biden and Warren vote collapsed in NH,

but it did not go to Sanders. ABB - Anyone But Bernie is real.

[DanTex]

4. I'm talking about national polls, where Bernie is now leading with nonwhite voters.

And since nobody other than Biden had much support from nonwhite voters then, yes, it's pretty safe to say that Bernie's lead with nonwhite voters includes a lot of former Biden supporters.

[TexasTowelie]

6. It's also silly when people add up all the votes of the other candidates.

Does the accusation of silliness only apply when it is the field versus Bernie?

[DanTex]

7. I've only seen people do it to Bernie, as in "70% voted against Bernie", but yeah,

adding up the total of voters against any candidate, and assuming they would all vote against that candidate if it weren't a six person field, is equally silly.

[TexasTowelie]

8. There is a frequent poster in this forum that has aggregated the poll results for Sanders and Warren

then compared them to Biden's poll results for several months. I'm surprised that you missed those posts.

[TwilightZone]

10. Several posters have been combining Sanders/Warren numbers all cycle.

Usually indicating that they're proof of a shift in the base, etc.

[bearsfootball516]

11. It's hard to know exactly where a voters preferences go after their primary candidates drops

Until that candidate drops.

Biden is my first choice, but Sanders is a close second.