Has Bernie Sanders Hit His Ceiling?

[MineralMan]

Yes, he got the most voted in New Hampshire, but still less than 30%. There seems to be a peak percentage that he can't break through in this race, and New Hampshire is probably the most receptive to his candidacy of all of the states.

There's Mayor Pete, right behind him, with almost the same percentage, and he actually came in first in Iowa.

If Bernie's ceiling is 30%, others are going to gain on him as lesser candidates drop out and their supporters move to other candidates. Many of the candidates who aren't doing so well are pretty moderate in their politics. Will their followers switch to supporting Bernie, or someone else.

Even many of Elizabeth Warren's supporters have indicated that they would pick Biden to support, or maybe a different moderate candidate.

Bernie Sanders is going to have to prove that he can garner more than 30% of voters in the primaries, or he won't become the nominee at the convention. On the second round of voting, a realignment will take place and it likely won't be in Bernie's favor.

[PTWB]

1. Has Joe Biden found the floor or can he still fall a little further? Negativity helps no one.

Look, Bernie isn't the ideal candidate for more than a few reasons. His supporters are often less than civil and prone to gloating. But people need to get past 2016 quick, fast and in a hurry if we're going to dethrone Trump in November.

Let's all build up our candidates, even the less-than-ideal ones, not tear them down.

[MineralMan]

5. Although Joe Biden's face is at the bottom of my post,

that does not mean that I am only interested in his candidacy.

I'm not being negative about Bernie Sanders. I'm looking at numbers. My goal is to win in November. We will do that by selecting a nominee who attracts more than 30% of Democratic delegates at our nominating convention.

Do not mistake my looking at numbers with attacking anyone. I am not doing that.

I asked a question. You did not answer it.

[onetexan]

17. agree. While BS may have done well in IA & NH, those 2 states do not represent the rest of America

which is highly diverse. IA & NH are not. I'm also concerned about his ability to attract AA voters and his poor heart. We cannot have a nominee with a bad ticker. What's up with the delayed health report? If he's nominated in March it will guarantee a second term for the Idiot.

[MineralMan]

27. In less than three weeks, we'll be hearing from many

states who have more balance populations, including your state and MN, my state.

We are going to know a great deal about where things are going on March 4. I will probably have the answer to the question I posed on that date, I think.

[BusyBeingBest]

14. +1000

[Cha]

88. But you just did it.

[DanTex]

2. Umm, I'd wait until the field gets down to less than 6 candidates before we talk about "ceilings".

Bernie's currently leading in national polls. Biden is next, and among Biden supporters, Bernie polls highest as their second choice.

The whole "centrists versus Bernie" being pushed by MSNBC pundits doesn't square with the polling data.

[DaDeacon]

16. Thank you !!!

The whole "centrists versus Bernie" being pushed by MSNBC pundits doesn't square with the polling data.

[squirecam]

21. Then explain why Biden voters in NH

Went to Amy and Pete.....

[Hassin Bin Sober]

42. Biden still got 9%. Not all Biden voters went to Amy and Pete

[squirecam]

44. Don't dodge.

Explain why those voters leaving Biden went to Amy and Pete instead of Bernie if “most” Biden voters second choice was Bernie.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

47. They weren't Biden voters in the first place if they voted for someone else with Biden on the ticket

[squirecam]

51. Your post makes no sense.

If Biden was their first choice, and they ditched him for their second choice because his campaign was flailing, why did they go to Pete and Amy instead of their “second” choice Bernie.

[PatSeg]

63. I voted for Biden in New Hampshire

If I'd had a second choice it would have been Klobuchar. I'm afraid my last choice would have been Bernie. I can't see most Biden supporters moving to Bernie. The Biden supporters I know are vehemently opposed to Bernie as the nominee, so I don't see them moving to Bernie except in a general election.

[Nanjeanne]

3. Well he brought in more young people in NH than ever before and got more young votes

than the next 4 candidates combined. And he has increased is POC support significantly from 2016 - so I’m going with No.

[mopinko]

26. that's not what i saw.

nh has a new law blocking the college kids, and the youngest demo yesterday was down from '16.
iirc-12% this time compared to 19% in '16.

that aint bringing in new voters. nor is it making sure your voters can vote.

[Nanjeanne]

37. Oh well if you saw it by all means please post the statistics. I could be wrong. Im

just going by the statistics i saw like these

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/new-hampshire-primary-live-results-democrats-make-final-push-n1134096/ncrd1135361#liveBlogHeader

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/new-hampshire?xid=ec_crm_nh_d

It’s absolutely true NH GOP suppressed the college vote. Think how much better Sanders would have done if they hadn’t.

So please correct them with your info. It would be interesting to compare results.

[mopinko]

50. i'm not seeing # of voters by age anywhere in your links. just %.

i am going by what msnbc was reporting last night.

[ehrnst]

76. Where are the numbers that support your claim that

"Bernie brought in more young people in NH than ever before and got more young votes than the next 4 candidates combined?"

They are not in the links you provided.

You need to establish that your claim true before asking someone to prove it false.

[Cha]

89. Snaps!

[Demsrule86]

49. The young vote was down...as it always is.

[Gothmog]

86. FactCheck Posts Sanders Spins Young Voter Turnout in Iowa

sanders is trying to preserve the myth of his magical voter revolution and is claiming that there was increased turnout. This claim was fact checked and found to be false

Link to tweet

Sen. Bernie Sanders claimed there was a “huge voter turnout” among young caucusgoers in Iowa this year, saying the turnout was “even higher than Obama’s extraordinary victory in 2008.” In fact, about 10,300 fewer young voters turned out this year than in 2008.....

It’s true that an estimated 24% of this year’s Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa were 29 years old or younger — a higher percentage than in 2008 (22%) and 2016 (18%), according to Edison Research, which conducts entrance polls at the Iowa caucus sites for major news organizations. But far more people participated overall in 2008, including more young people.

“In 2016, participation in the Iowa caucuses was around 170,000 voters,” Edison Research said in a blog post prior to the Iowa caucus.

“But in 2008, turnout for the Democratic caucuses in Iowa reached record levels; 239,000 voters came out to participate in the caucuses that year.”

That means about 52,580 people ages 17 to 29 participated in the Iowa caucus in 2008 — which is far more than came out this year.
As the Washington Post reported, 176,000 people participated in the Democratic caucuses in Iowa, which means about 42,240 of the Democratic caucusgoers were 29 years old or younger. That’s about 11,640 more than participated in 2016 — when Sanders was also a presidential candidate — but it’s about 10,300 fewer younger voters than in 2008.

So, Sanders’ claim that young voter turnout among Iowa Democrats “was even higher than Obama’s extraordinary victory in 2008” is pure spin.

[Cha]

90. OMG!!!

Thanks!

[Gothmog]

91. I found this article to be helpful

[BlueWI]

4. Starting the concern trolling early?

Truly, we have no idea what's going to happen in the primaries. So why speculate now?

[MineralMan]

11. We are beginning to see the returns from actual primaries,

not just from polling. So, I'm looking at those results alongside polling results.

Numbers matter. Truly they do.

If you are calling me a troll, you're incorrect about that.

[LanternWaste]

30. The numbers do not support your premise.

Accuracy and data analysis matters more than prophecy.

Truly it does.

[MineralMan]

70. I'm not going to discuss this with you.

If you think about it, you'll understand why.

[Mike 03]

77. "Why speculate?" This forum is 80% speculation. It's the Primaries Forum.

We're all trying to speculate as to the identity of the nominee.

[BlueWI]

84. Not all of us are speculating.

Some of us support our candidate of choice and watch the returns come in, especially the week before NV and SC, and congratulate the primary winners.

Or we can do all the speculating in one post:

Did Biden reach his ceiling? Did Klobuchar? Did Warren? Did Buttigieg? etc.

How was that?

[oldsoftie]

6. Bernie should've EASILY won NH; its his neighboring state. Pete's on his heels.

Warren falling; Biden weaker than expected. Bloomberg/Klobuchar?

[totodeinhere]

81. If we nominate Bloomberg it's over in my opinion. The last thing voters will want is another

billionaire, and one who has embraced racist policies in the past at that.

[oldsoftie]

83. Right now, Bloomberg leads trump by more than any other candidate.

[Cal Carpenter]

7. The morning consult poll belies most of your assumptions.

Bernie ranges from 17 to 35% in being second choice for all candidates.

[judeling]

18. In Stock Market terms it is a resistance level

He has hit it several times. That doesn't mean he doesn't break through it.

[TwilightZone]

35. So, 65-83% prefer other candidates as their second choices?

I don't think that makes the point you meant it to make. The math would seem to indicate that as candidates drop out, more of their support would go to other candidates than will go to Sanders.

If it becomes a two-person race, for example, and the second person picks up 65-83% of the support from all the other drop-outs, Sanders won't win.

[Ace Rothstein]

40. If it becomes a two-person race then you'll likely have to start looking at 3rd and 4th choices.

Not sure we have any data on that and you can't assume it will all go against Sanders.

[TwilightZone]

58. Sure, but we can guess that roughly 2/3 of them will.

Third and fourth choices would only matter if the second choice doesn't come into play. Those lower-ranked choices may also change as the race changes. If it looks like it's going to be Sanders vs. one other candidate, voters who may have had Sanders third or fourth may coalesce behind his remaining opponent instead, so Sanders doesn't get the nod.

That's why I find it rather odd that Sanders' strategy seems to be to alienate supporters of some of the other candidates. If this quickly becomes a two-person race, he's going to need them to win.

YouGov did do a ranked-choice poll, and Economist's analysis of it a couple of weeks ago indicated a similar situation. They had Biden as the recipient, but it may end up being someone like Bloomberg.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/02/01/under-ranked-choice-voting-left-wing-purism-would-aid-joe-biden

[Nanjeanne]

38. Oh dear. That won't play well!

[FoxNewsSucks]

8. Has there been enough veiled Sanders-bashing?

Or will Biden's people continue with these kinds of threads that do nothing but stir division?

[Locrian]

19. its yet another post along the lines of a horse race mentality

zero on the issues....

[Demsrule86]

55. Issues don't matter at this point. Any Democrat who can win is fine with me...

But sanders wont win. So I like Biden . But i will support Bloomberg if Biden doesn't win. Trump must go. I see a huge loss if Sanders is the nominee .Maybe we lose the house too. Sure I will vote for any nominee- before you ask.

[dchill]

9. I think we're about to find out.

[at140]

10. Bernie seems to be hitting the ceiling, and Biden seems to be

falling below his floor. Pete & Amy were the big winners yesterday.

[MineralMan]

13. Yes. Joe Biden seems to be falling back.

If he doesn't do very well in Nevada and South Carolina, I will probably select a different candidate for the question about who I would vote for today. For now, I'm sticking with Biden, until I see some results from states that look more like the nation, demographically.

However, looking at the numbers is also interesting, even when we only have them from lily-white states so far.

[at140]

25. Yes, as Biden said, 99.5% of blacks have not voted yet.

So Nevada and SC are getting extremely interesting.

[Ace Rothstein]

12. Warren supporters outside of DU go to Bernie in the greatest numbers from the polls I've seen.

If Bernie is the delegate leader going in to the convention and someone else comes out as the nominee, the party is done.

[at140]

28. Probably correct because...

both have similar agenda and splitting the votes. But Bernie is late 70's and recent heart attack patient.
While Warren has the energy of a 39 year old. And it is a very long campaign. So...………

[George II]

15. I notice some responses immediately pivoted to Biden. I would take those as "yes" in response!

[DaDeacon]

20. The answer to your question is No...

As the field gets smaller candidates will have larger percentage wins.

[MineralMan]

23. You'd think so, wouldn't you?

You could be right. And certainly some candidate's numbers will go up as other candidates drop out. My question remains a valid one. Only more numbers from future events will answer it.

[MineralMan]

22. Well, some of us have a candidate showing at the bottom of

our posts. I suppose people see that and assume that we have a fixed point of view about all of this.

It's not true. The question that image answers is "Who would you vote for today."

The future is not today.

So, if I ask a question that is based on actual numbers in polls and, now, in completed primary campaign events, some people think I'm attacking their favorite candidate. I am not. I am asking a very logical sort of question.

I could also have asked whether Pete Buttigieg has hit his ceiling, but his numbers are going up recently, so I can't really speak to that.

I could ask about Bloomberg's polling numbers, which are rising fast, and about where they are going.

Sanders is the current leader, though, so I asked my question about him.

So far, I have already been called a troll in this thread. Hmm....

[totodeinhere]

82. No, it's just that if Bernie is at his ceiling what does that say about Joe?

Would we rather nominate someone who has got the most votes so far or someone who is doing well to crack 10% after having been called the front runner for the past few months.

[Act_of_Reparation]

24. I think whether Joe Biden has hit his floor is the more important question.

If not, can Buttigieg or Klobuchar or Bloomberg muster the votes to meet Bernie at this supposed ceiling of his?

[MineralMan]

29. Well, Mayor Pete has done quite well in IA and NH, I'd say.

Don't you agree? He's right up there with Bernie in those two lily-white states. Now we move on to states with more balanced demographics. Joe Biden seems to be faltering, that's true. But, his supporters aren't moving toward Sanders, really. We'll see what happens next, and then, we'll get a much broader look in three weeks.

[Act_of_Reparation]

31. Yes, he's done well so far.

I don't really find his schtick all that inspiring, but it seems to be working.

[LanternWaste]

32. What specifically leads you to believe that the first two steps in a marathon

What objective data specifically leads you to believe that the first two steps in a marathon indicate anything more than the first two steps?

"seems to be a peak percentage that he can't break through in this race..."
Again, you're predicating your entire sentiment on a small sampling of only the first two races. That seems (at best) irrational and lazy thinking.

[MineralMan]

34. Well, here's the thing: I'm looking both at polling and actual results.

In none of those has Bernie gone over 30%. New Hampshire should be a very good state for him, you'd think, yet he garnered only 26% of the vote there, closely followed by Pete Buttigieg at 24% and Amy Klobuchar trailing along at 20%. Add the second and third place finishers numbers together. They're not dissimilar in their political stances, so, it's fair to do that.

So, my question is actually based on a lot of samples, not just the first two primary events.

I think it is a valid question. Others disagree. That's fine with me, since more numbers will be forthcoming shortly.

We'll find out the answer to my question before too long, I think. In about three weeks, specifically. We can revisit this then.

[empedocles]

33. No matter what happens to BS in the primaries, BS will likely repeat his 2016

history - or do even more damage.

[ProfessorPlum]

36. No

[MineralMan]

39. Well, I guess that settles that, then.

[ProfessorPlum]

56. see https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1224105238656946176

Link to tweet

[TwilightZone]

59. Donations don't directly translate to votes.

I would have thought we had learned that last cycle, but apparently not.

[ProfessorPlum]

79. true . . . ish. I think people that donate to a campaign are likely to vote for it

though, overall.

I think the lesson from last cycle is that a status quo candidate won't beat His Lardship.

[Gothmog]

87. The Revolution Has Not Yet Arrived

There is no magical voter revolution https://politicalwire.com/2020/02/12/the-revolution-has-not-yet-arrived/

Ryan Lizza: “Sanders overpromised and underdelivered. He has premised his campaign on nothing less than sparking a political revolution in which disaffected and first-time voters — especially young ones — pour into American politics to carry him to the White House. It didn’t happen in Iowa, and it didn’t happen in New Hampshire.”

“Sanders dominated the state in 2016, winning every county. Buttigieg and Klobuchar ripped holes through that map everywhere, turning color-coded maps from 2016 that showed a Sanders rout into a patchwork of colors.”

[jcmaine72]

41. 15.8% and 8.4%

If Bernie has to prove he can garner more than 30% of the vote in any primary to be taken seriously I'd hate to be in Joe Biden's bedroom slippers this morning.

[MineralMan]

45. It's true. Biden hasn't fared all that well in the first two states.

I'm sure he's considerably worried about that, as he should be. He has dropped down a lot in IA and NH. Perhaps he will pick up in the next two states and on Super Tuesday. We'll see.

Why didn't I mention him? Because he dropped down into single digits and got no delegates in NH. I was talking about Bernie Sanders, who came out as #1 in New Hampshire. I noticed that he still hasn't broken the 30% level of support anywhere. So, I am wondering about that. He has two other candidates behind him who also got 20% or more of the vote. That should be a little alarming for him, I'd think, especially in his neighboring state.

So, I asked a question that seems pertinent to the situation.

Joe Biden is a different matter. He's not leading. I'm talking about the leaders. If he becomes a leader again in the future, then I'll resume wondering how he will do. Meanwhile, Mike Bloomberg, another moderate, seems to be stealing support from Biden.

Isn't it interesting - primary season?

[HarlanPepper]

57. The fixation on Biden is fascinating given he's by far the least threatening to Bernie

But hey y’all go on fighting the last war.

[jcmaine72]

68. Odd that you're raising this issue in one of the countless threads here

fixating on Bernie.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

43. Biden got 9% and received zero delegates.

[MineralMan]

46. Yes. That's true. So, he's not all that interesting right now, is he?

He's going to have to do a lot better than that in upcoming primaries, isn't he?

[melman]

48. LOL

[MineralMan]

52. Why are you laughing?

He's got two moderate Democrats right on his tail, and in a state that neighbors his own. I'll bet he expected to do better than that.

[honest.abe]

53. There are a huge number of Democrats who will never switch to Bernie.

He has burned too many bridges and many just dont trust him not to mention the potential disaster for Democrats with Sanders as our nominee in a general election. I cannot see Sanders ever getting a majority of the Democratic vote in this primary.

[MineralMan]

54. You could be right.

That he has two moderate Democrats closely behind him in NH, both with 20% or more of the vote, is evidence of what you are saying. I think Sanders probably expected to do better and have a bigger lead over those behind him. Add up the votes for Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Interesting.

[Yavin4]

60. Bernie has a following, not a movement.

There's a big difference between the two. A following gives you a reliable chunk of voters and campaign donations. A movement throws fear into the establishment and forces reluctant pols to endorse you.

For example, Ron Paul had a very loyal following, but he did not have a movement behind him.

[denem]

61. Never bothered any Biden supporters that he had a 30% ceiling in the polls.

Biden never looked like a winner either.

[TwilightZone]

64. Biden's average peaked in the 40s.

His ceiling was about 17 points higher than where Sanders is now.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[denem]

65. Biden's been stuck bouncing off 30% since September.

[TwilightZone]

66. That doesn't make your assertion any more accurate.

It's simply false.

[denem]

67. It most certainly is ....

a ceiling a statistical term.

[Happy Hoosier]

62. Not quite....

I do think he will pick up some of Yang's folks, and if Liz continues to fall (<cry&gt , some of her supporters will go to him. Not me, but some.

His ceiling is well below 50%, though.

[customerserviceguy]

69. Sanders

certainly won a number of states in 2016, and if the center-left lane has too many contenders, he make eke out minor victories in a number of places. If Warren's cash dries up, he will surely pick up some of the support that would have gone to her.

And Biden is not looking like someone that people are going to, the "bandwagon" effect will be of more benefit to Klobuchar and Buttigieg. We will see if they have enough of a bounce from NH to keep the money flowing.

[Doremus]

71. Considering there are 3 top runners this time I'd say probably.

Doesn't take a Phi Beta Kappa.

[Tom Rinaldo]

72. With Biden now much weakened we really don't know who gets most "minority" votes

Until we at least hear from Nevada and SC we can't really be sure about anyone's ceiling. It could be Mayor Pete and Amy collectively scraping against their ceilings if they can't broaden their appeal to People of Color.

[Amimnoch]

73. Years ago. -nt

[MineralMan]

74. Well, that's a position with a good argument for it.

Truly.

[booley]

75. so lets look at some Data

Not sure if this is still accurate but it is the most up to date I can find.
What we need to look at are second choices. If so and so drops out who is most likely to get those voters?

So if say Warren drops out, 30% of her voters say they would go to Bernie instead. Only 15% would go to Buttigieg. And 19% to Biden.

IF Biden dropped out, Sanders would get 26%. Buttigieg would get 12%

No idea on how third choices would work out but you get the idea. Some here have pointed out that Sanders doesn't poll the same as he did in 2016. This is true. But the thing is it's pretty clear as some of these other candidates drop out,. Sanders can only go up and these voters go back to him. And he is set to go up more than anyone else. That's why a direct comparison to 2016 doesn't' work. The dynamics are not the same.

?w=575

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-second-choice-candidates-show-a-race-that-is-still-fluid/

Seriously, if you guys are going to do these "analysis" I wish you would try to follow the data. Even if you disagree with the data, then you still have to explain why you disagree with the data that fits the data.

[lunasun]

78. I guess it's true . The grass always looks browner on the other side

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287508096

[totodeinhere]

80. You are drawing a lot of conclusions from just two contests. Let see how Bernie does going forward

and we should see soon enough if he has hit his ceiling. And if I were you I'd being more worried about Biden. If Bernie has hit his ceiling what does it say about Biden's ceiling?

[Gothmog]

85. Bernie Sanders has some problems

Link to tweet

Turnout in New Hampshire did not significantly increase from 2016 to 2020, even though there was no competitive Republican primary to draw independent voters. Sanders has twice now failed to produce a promised wave of voters. Without such an influx of voters, his electability argument crumbles. He must either appeal to a greater share of Democrats and independents than other candidates (which currently is not remotely the case), or he must bring in a flood of new voters (which also is not happening). In short, his ceiling is still stuck around 25 percent, just as it has been from the onset of the race.

[Gothmog]

92. New Hampshire Turnout Wasn't Driven By Bernie's Base

Thee was no magical voter revolution https://politicalwire.com/2020/02/13/new-hampshire-turnout-wasnt-driven-by-bernies-base/

February 13, 2020 at 3:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 294 Comments
David Wasserman looks at Democratic turnout in New Hampshire towns won by the top Democratic candidates:

Pete Buttigieg: +26.5%
Amy Klobuchar: +25.2%
Bernie Sanders: +12.0%

His takeaway: Most of the increase in turnout was attributable to John Kasich/Marco Rubio types crossing over from 2016 Republican primary, not heightened enthusiasm of the progressive/Bernie Sanders base.

[Scurrilous]

93. Boink.

[Gothmog]

94. Bernie Sanders is powered by a loyal base, but results in Iowa and New Hampshire show the movement h

It appears that sanders has a hard ceiling of around 25%

Link to tweet

Yet the early returns show that Sanders's loyal army represents a limited slice of the party, accounting for just over a quarter of the vote in each of the first two states. And one of the central premises of his campaign — that it is built to activate legions of new voters and spur record turnout among young people — has not been realized.

Perhaps more troubling for Sanders are the signals that he is having difficulties expanding his appeal beyond his staunchest backers. Half the voters in Tuesday's Democratic primary in New Hampshire said his positions were too liberal, according to exit polls. He has struggled among older voters, who make up a significant part of the Democratic electorate, and in some suburban areas similar to places analysts say could be key in upcoming races. Critics also say hostility from his fervent followers makes some potential supporters feel unwelcome.

In the 2016 primary race, Sanders emerged as the single counterweight to the establishment favorite, Hillary Clinton, but this time the electorate is more fractured, with many who might have backed him four years ago now looking at a range of choices — and Democratic voters of all ideologies putting a premium on a candidate's perceived ability to defeat President Trump.

"If Sanders is counting on expanding the Democratic base to make the case for electability in the fall, that's just not happening so far," said David Wasserman, an analyst with the Cook Political Report. "If anything, the evidence shows the Democratic primary electorate has become more pragmatic than in 2016.".....

Even as some allies have sought to broaden his appeal, Sanders has drawn polarizing supporters who have complicated those efforts. There is podcast host Joe Rogan, who has drawn criticism over his comments about gender, race and sexuality. There is Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who booed Clinton at a Sanders event before later regretting her choice. And there is the army of supporters who often go aggressively after Sanders critics online.