**Brand Spaking New Nevada Poll ** BS 25% JB 18% EW 13% TS 11% MP 10% AK 10% TG 0%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Sanders led the pack with 25 percent of respondents expressing support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden (18 percent) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (13 percent).

Businessman Tom Steyer (11 percent), former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (10 percent) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (10 percent) were clustered close behind.


https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/sanders-holds-lead-heading-into-nevadas-democratic-caucuses-poll-finds-1957583/

[Ilsa]

1. Here it is without initials:

Sanders led the pack with 25 percent of respondents expressing support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden (18 percent) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (13 percent).

Businessman Tom Steyer (11 percent), former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (10 percent) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (10 percent) were clustered close behind.

[highplainsdem]

2. You beat me to it.

Want to add that the polling started Tuesday, the day of the NH primary, and went through yesterday.

Favorability of the caniddates:

The entire field boasted solid favorability numbers among the respondents.

Sanders (71 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable) and Warren (71 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) had the highest favorability among the candidates. They were followed by Biden (68 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable), Steyer (64 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable), Klobuchar (62 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable) and Buttigieg (59 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable).

Favorability is particularly important during a caucus, as some voters may have to support their second or third choice if their ideal candidate does not get the support of 15 percent of caucusgoers at a particular site.

Voters' priorities:

A majority (56 percent) of the respondents said stopping President Donald Trump was their main motivating factor in the 2020 election. Passing Medicare for All was the second priority at 9 percent.

[squirecam]

3. Finally a NV poll

Even though it’s from the RJ. What is interesting is the favorables and unfavorables.

Sanders (71 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable) and Warren (71 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) had the highest favorability among the candidates. They were followed by Biden (68 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable), Steyer (64 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable), Klobuchar (62 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable) and Buttigieg (59 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable).

Amy seems to be the least “despised” candidate.

If this poll is accurate, it’s going to be an interesting caucus.

[highplainsdem]

4. The poll has a large MOE, 4.8%. Sanders' lead isn't outside the MOE for Biden, but is for

the others.

[squirecam]

5. If this poll is accurate

It’s bad new for Biden. He has the highest unfavorables. Which means he is less likely to gain support in the second round.

Biden needs to show up in NV pretty quick.

[highplainsdem]

6. Actually, it's good for Biden. A solid second place in a state where he's been outspent by the

Sanders campaign and out-organized by Warren, who's devoted a lot of resources to Nevada.

And Biden's unfavorable rating isn't much higher than those for Sanders and Warren, and his favorable rating is nearly as high.

The reason Klobuchar's unfavorable rating is so low is that she apparently has 21% of respondents saying they don't know anything about her, or enough about her to have an opinion.

For Sanders and Warren and Biden, the group with no opinion was between 4% and 6%.

[squirecam]

7. We will see

If Amy wasn’t viable, I’d caucus for Joe.

But I wonder how many other fellow Nevadans will have that opinion.

[highplainsdem]

8. Well, this is the most recent poll, and most of it was done after the NH primary.

[squirecam]

10. Yes

But there is a long stretch and a debate between now and then.

It’s not like debates have any impact.....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. This

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287517199

[Cuthbert Allgood]

25. Apparently Biden just needs to keep losing them all

since him not winning has always been a good sign. Unique strategy.

[emmaverybo]

30. No, not bad news for Biden. A second place finish moves him on to S.C. where I believe he

needs to deploy enough resources to maximize his chance to win. Steyer is making inroads with AA voters there and Bloomberg might also undercut Biden’s support throwing that race to Sanders
possibly. But a win in Nevada is not a green light for Sanders in the south, where he must prevail, and yet it does not remove a gateway to the south from Biden as long as he comes in second. Coming in first could certainly help him gain in S.C.

Glad you pointed out the MOE, hpd, showing Biden at this point competitive with Sanders. Interestingly, Sanders is stepping a bit back from M4All, his campaign’s key promise, in time to make an adjustment for the Culinary Union’s stance on healthcare.

They are playing hard to get, as I read their decision not to endorse.

[Demsrule86]

20. Nonsense...what three points difference between Biden and Klobachar who has no where to

go really...She, Warren (sad-my second choice) and Buttigieg are out by Carolina...latest would be super Tuesday. I would also add that other candidates have not face the attacks Biden has...so we shall see...but with such little AA vote the three candidates mentioned about have nowhere to go.

[tgards79]

28. He has a 68% favorable

No one is going to get near 68% on any round. He'll be fine in the second round if these numbers are anything close to correct, because he is the #2 choice overall. He's above the 15% threshold, most of the others are not.

[brooklynite]

11. Bernie 20% behind his 2016 tally.

Surge!

[squirecam]

12. It's the second round that matters

If this poll is accurate, everyone is bunched at the range where they might not be viable. Their second choices really matter.

[PufPuf23]

24. One cannot directly compare Democratic primaries 2016 to 2020

because 2016 essentially had two candidates, HRC and BS, versus the broad stable of Democratic candidates that have competed in campaigning and the debates in 2020.

But you know this.

At this point I expect Bloomberg to be the Democratic candidate for POTUS in the GE.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

26. You mean the primary that only has 2 people?

Odd that he wouldn't get the same percentage when there are, what, 7 people?

[brooklynite]

32. IOW a half of Bernie's 2016 support was simply people who didn't like Hillary?

Not admirers of his policies? Well, I won't argue with you there...

BTW, wasn't Bernie supposed to attract NEW voters?

[Cuthbert Allgood]

35. IOW there are more people in the primary so the votes are more spread out.

You do realize that Bernie vs everyone else is doing better than anyone else vs everyone else, right?

But, yeah, we now apparently live in a world on DU where winning is losing and losing is winning. 'Cause that makes sense.

[Dem2]

13. .

Is it spanking or spackling?

[brooklynite]

14. Let's See: MFA Yes: 38% MFA No: 58%

[squirecam]

15. The no vote

Will be split though.

[brooklynite]

16. That's not a good trend for the GE

[highplainsdem]

17. Jon Ralston thread on this poll, with some caveats:

Thread starts here, full text below:

Link to tweet

RJ (Adelson) poll finds Bernie ahead, Biden in second, six candidates in double digits:
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/sanders-holds-lead-heading-into-nevadas-democratic-caucuses-poll-finds-1957583/


Caveats:
1. GOP pollster (who said Laxalt would be gov) polling Dem electorate.
2. Small sample (413)
3. Caucuses notoriously hard to poll and with Iowa Effect, early voting and Bernie/Pete/Warren with best orgs, hard to tell.
4. Full impact (if any) of Culinary not in here.


Not saying poll is not correct for the time it was taken, but turnout model used by pollster is key to accuracy of any survey. And in all my years covering Nevada, this turnout is hardest to predict because of Iowa/early voting and tremendous turnout machines by some candidates.


I have repeatedly said Bernie is the favorite because he did well here in '16 and this time he has adults running the show. It's the real deal. But if Culinary revs up the machine and turns people out (with no guidance), what is that impact? Nobody knows.

[squirecam]

18. Always listen to Ralston

That is all.

[LeftTurn3623]

19. If this holds true

will Amy Klobuchar have the decency to drop out after Nevada? This would be another 4th or 5th place finish

If Joe gets a 2nd place finish here and wins SC he would be right back in the thick of things

This looks like the beginning of the end for Pete : (


Warren will finish a distance 3rd but somehow she will get the nomination finishing 3rd & 4th place and she should not drop out of the race

[judeling]

21. First real poll

This is great news for Amy. I mean great.
I am almost willing to project Amy as the second place finisher to Bernie right now. With a real shot at winning.

With this money has ceased to be a problem for her. I cannot tell you how jazzed I am right now.

Klobal Warming is real.

[LeftTurn3623]

22. and then the alarm goes off (just kidding)

I actually hope you are right - I would not mind Amy becoming the top person against Bloomberg & Sanders. I just do not see it happen but keep up the faith!

[judeling]

29. Nevada is a better fit for her then people understand

First if you consider her exits they are heavily weighted to late deciders. That is the classic Head before Heart profile. Those late deciders are not just undecided by any means.

She is even with Pete right now in that poll. Coming from around 4% to his 8%. That indicates real movement but more in her favor.

She is the Daughter of a union family, it a state that has shown a great willingness to vote for female candidates. She was a Harry Reid protégé.

She really does extremely well with those who go to church once a week or more. That will play very well even in the Mormon north.

No I really feel good about her chances there. I will say right now that if she does manage to finish a strong Second to Bernie or eek out a win the "Moderate" lane will collapse around her very fast.

[squirecam]

33. If this poll is accurate

And everyone “ties” for third with 10-12% of the vote, then no, there is no reason to drop out.

Amy just got a ton of money.

No one is going to just quit because people want them to. As long as they have money and equal support in the vote, there is no incentive to leave before Super Tuesday.

[BusyBeingBest]

23. Elizabeth Warren has a chance. Amy caught up with Pete. Interesting.

Also, Tom Steyer is an annoying distraction at this point.

[squirecam]

34. I though he explained his background pretty well

At the LULAC forum. As for his aspirational goals, he doesn’t have the legislarptive experience to implement them.

[wisteria]

27. I despise Caucuses. I believe there is early in person voting here though.

Go Joe!

[squirecam]

31. Yes

It starts next week.