Sanders Within Two Points of Trump--IN TEXAS

[NJCher]

Also see this:

Bernie Sanders leaps to first among Texas Democrats in latest UT/TT Poll

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders has doubled his support among Democratic voters in Texas and now leads the race for that party’s presidential nomination in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Sanders had the support of 24% of the self-identified Democratic primary voters in the poll, up from 12% in October. Sanders passed both former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the two leaders in the October 2019 UT/TT Poll. Early voting in the Texas primaries starts on Tuesday; election day — Super Tuesday — is March 3.

Link

[msongs]

1. in others words he is losing texas. nice spin tho nt

[Polybius]

17. The other candidates are losing to Trump too

But Bernie by less.

[Gothmog]

3. 'We'd be f--ed': Texas Dems sweat a Bernie Sanders ticket

We have made a great deal of progress that will go down the drain if a weak and unelectable candidate like sanders is on the top of the ticket. After the 2010 elections, there were 101 republicans members of the Texas state House compared to 49 Democrats. We flipped 12 state house seats in 2018 and need 9 more to take control of the Texas House. We flipped two Congressional seats (Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred). The DCCC is targeting 7 congressional seats. I have hopes that HJ Hegar could beat Cornyn. Texas would be a battleground state if Biden is the nominee

If sanders is the nominee, we can kiss Lizzie's and Colin's seats goodbye. sanders would be poison.

Link to tweet

“Sanders is a complete disaster and Warren is a complete-disaster-lite,” said Texas-based campaign consultant Jeff Hewitt, who has been working in Democratic politics since he served on Clinton-Gore’s campaign team in the 1990s. “At the end of the day, most of us want to win.”....

Hewitt said O’Rourke’s loss reveals that far-left ideas don’t bring out enough people to flip seats. “The idea that more people will come out to vote if a progressive is on the ballot, that’s fools gold,” he said....

Polls have offered little guidance. Biden is still a favorite among establishment figures and led a poll of Texas voters before Iowa but Sanders surged after the caucuses and Michael Bloomberg is on the rise.

Texas will eventually turn blue due to demographic trends but having sanders at the top of the ticket would set these efforts back

[NJCher]

4. yeah, I think that's kinda' the idea

typical, expected response.

Some people have to learn the hard way.

[Gothmog]

5. So it is okay to have a Speaker Kevin McCarthy?

If sanders is the nominee, then the House will be at risk and we could have a Speaker Kevin McCarthy

[NJCher]

6. there's a word for this

it is called "catastrophizing."

You have no idea what a Sanders presidency would entail. Thus you catastrophize. Dig yourself out, get a grip.

[Gothmog]

7. denial is not just a river in Africa

If a very weak candidate like sanders is the nominee, trump will win 45+ states and we will lose the House.
I do not want to see Speaker Kevin McCartyu

[NJCher]

10. why do you do that?

say "very weak candidate like sanders is the nominee" when credible polling organizations predict Sanders will win the primary?

And your stated candidate is trying to keep his head above water? *

Is this your address:

Gothmog
Faraday Cage
Somewhere but not Reality, USA


*definition of "weak"

[Gothmog]

11. I live in the real world and in the real world sanders is a very weak candidate

sanders is potentially an even weaker candidate than McGovern in 1972

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[NJCher]

12. these kinds of posts

just show your desperation. Bernie has worked for decades on this agenda, which, btw, is the American agenda of economic equality. He's paved the way with a lifetime of work. McGovern didn't do that, nor are the times the same as when McGovern ran.

But whatever. Never doubt that your posts bring me a good laugh each day.

[Gothmog]

20. LOL sanders has zero significant legislative accomplishments in the real world

What are sanders’ legislative accomplishments? What has sanders achieved in the real world?

This is from Meet the Predd this morning

Link to tweet

[NJCher]

22. very simple answer

If Bernie weren't around we wouldn't even be talking about taxing billionaires, providing Medicare for all, and all the other proposals that even centrist Democrats have had to add (whatever the form) to their platform.

Bernie has moved the entire establishment to the left.

Next question?

[jimfields33]

27. And it's frustrating that this is not understood by most

Bernie has significantly changed the Democratic Party to the best it’s ever been and just gets spit upon. Totally frustrating!!!!!

[Gothmog]

28. LOL sanders does not have a magic wand and so NONE of his proposals will be adopted

sanders is unable to get his proposals adopted in the real world and has been claiming that a magical voter revolution will get these proposals adopted

Even AOC has admitted that sanders does not have a nagic wand]

Link to tweet

sanders will never get any of his proposals adopted in the real world with a magical voter revolution

[NJCher]

29. all we're asking for

is a seat at the table to propose these items.

That's why your histrionics are unfounded. You have yourself in a tizzy over Sanders.

Before Bernie, we couldn't even get anyone to mention these proposals. If Bernie wins, we will at least have one branch of government working on the behalf of people who believe medical care should not bankrupt a person. That 1 per cent of the people should not have all the money. That corporations should not get off paying -0- taxes.

That this is even considered revolutionary shows how far America has strayed from its ideals.

[Gothmog]

30. sanders is the wrong choice for this

I will support the nominee of the party but there are far too many real Democrats who have good memories. These real Democrats will or give or forget

I never took sanders seriously due to the fact that sanders has zero significant accomplishments in the real world. His fellow members of Congress have nor back nor will they will ever back his proposals

[Gothmog]

31. Bernie Sanders has "never gotten anything done

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

33. sanders fellow Democrats have never taken sanders seriously

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

34. There will be no voter revolution

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

36. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker come 2021

Link to tweet

THE TUMULTUOUS POLITICAL CLIMATE has given fresh hope to REPUBLICANS, who were privately skeptical of TRUMP’S prediction that House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY will be the next speaker come 2021. Internal polling commissioned by the NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE showed that voters in districts targeted by both parties are skeptical of SANDERS -- his approval rating is 42%, and disapproval stands at 53% -- which they believe will help boost their candidates for the House. In these districts, voters prefer TRUMP, 48% to 43%. If SANDERS is atop the ticket, Republicans believe, they can credibly label every Democrat a socialist without fear of overreach.

[Cal Carpenter]

8. And Warren is three points

away from Trump. Very interesting. Makes me happy to see Warren and Sanders performing so well in polls of this nature. I hope they are right, and I hope people who are focused on electability notice the implications here.

[Gothmog]

9. sanders would kill down ballot candidates in Texas

Link to tweet

[NJCher]

13. that's an opinion

not a fact.

[Gothmog]

16. I am working on three campaigns here in Texas

I am on Colin's dialing for dollar call list and have donated to Colin. Moderate candidates in swing districts are terrified of having a weak and unelectable candidate like sanders on the top of the ticket

Link to tweet

There are a ton of Democratic candidates in swing districts who are endorsing Biden because they know that sanders would kill down ballot candidates in the real world

[Moderateguy]

18. I said this on another one of my posts

Sanders on top of the ticket will not even fly in liberal Austin, let along help people like Allred keep his seat. We may lose the house

[Gothmog]

21. I agree

Sanders would kill down ballot candidates in Texas

[NJCher]

23. um hmm

sure you are.

[kabelle]

19. Yang also behind Trump by 2%

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Any poll that has us close in Texas is a bad poll

We can win pockets there but not the state, not with 43% self-identified conservatives in Texas.

Beto would have kept it reasonably close. The others will not be close.

Again, turnout means nothing compared to those liberal/conservative percentages in each state. I'll let Rachel Bitecofer and anyone else show up and try to pretend otherwise. I emphasized throughout 2018 that Beto could not defeat Cruz due to the number of self-identified conservatives. I wagered heavily on Cruz at bargain rate.

And since using that reference point to bet on politics I have only lost two statewide wagers in presidential years -- North Carolina and Indiana in 2008. I wagered on McCain to win both of those states over Obama since those states always report above 40% self-identified conservatives. Somehow that year the numbers changed briefly. Conservatives dipped into 37-38 range and Obama won both states very narrowly. But instead of it being a trend it was merely a blip. Both states restored to their norm in the 42% range. We wasted tons of resources in North Carolina recently while ignoring that 42%, although it did return the governorship so I guess it can be rationalized that way.

Virginia and Nevada and Colorado were classic examples of states where the number of self-identified conservatives steadily dropped from low 40s into the 37% and lower area where we need it to be. The state becomes winnable at that point.

That has not happened yet in Texas...not close.

Arizona became promising in 2016 when the conservative number dropped to 41% and the liberal percentage soared to 27%. That was amazing. I spotlighted it here immediately. It is the first time I've ever seen a state report more than the national average in both the liberal and conservative number. Such a polarized state. The 41% in Arizona was a positive dip then it dropped again in 2018 midterm to 40%. That was particularly encouraging since midterms are typically an older and more conservative crowd than presidential years.

We need Texas to drop to 41% conservatives in 2020. That should be the focus and the rooting interest, not the margin itself. These races are decided by ideology, which dictates preference.

Turnout dictates nothing. Rachel Bitcofe owns the new math just like Karl Rove had "The Math." I love it when these upstarts jump in and think they have deciphered something based on a sample of one. Then they get followers. That is like the horse track when some loudmouth has a fluke winner and next thing you know he's got people tagging along awaiting his next pronouncement.

For reference, Texas was 44% conservatives in 2016 and 43% in 2018. That's why 41% in 2020 is a reasonable goal.

[TexasTowelie]

26. +1

[Scurrilous]

25. So was Yang.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

[NJCher]

35. yep

and what does that say? Yang is closer to Bernie's positions than any other candidate.

[Gothmog]

32. "Democratic insiders in Texas on edge: They're worried

Link to tweet