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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 08:56 PM

 

New Nevada Poll: Bernie 35, Elizabeth 16, Pete 15, Joe 14

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/sanders-has-strong-lead-in-nevada

Key Findings:

Senator Bernie Sanders has a commanding nineteen point in the Nevada caucus, with 35 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting him. He is followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Former Vice President Joe Biden who are all tightly clustered at 16, 15 and 14 percentage points, respectively.

Senator Amy Klobuchar, whose third place finish in the New Hampshire primary garnered considerable media coverage sits in sixth place with 9 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting her.

Sanders performs extremely well with Hispanic likely caucusgoers, registering 66 percent support, with no other candidate cracking double digits. He continues to see strong support among younger voters, with likely caucusgoers under 45 supporting him at 64 percent. Of those who have made up their mind, Sanders registers 47 percent support.

Democratic voters strongly support both Medicare for All (69 percent in support, 23 percent opposed) and a Green New Deal (93 percent in support, 6 percent opposed).
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply New Nevada Poll: Bernie 35, Elizabeth 16, Pete 15, Joe 14 (Original post)
HerbChestnut Feb 2020 OP
msongs Feb 2020 #1
thesquanderer Feb 2020 #7
David__77 Feb 2020 #34
Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #43
totodeinhere Feb 2020 #19
OliverQ Feb 2020 #31
Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #42
rwheeler31 Feb 2020 #2
The Velveteen Ocelot Feb 2020 #4
progressoid Feb 2020 #32
UniteFightBack Feb 2020 #6
HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #8
LineLineLineReply .
Deero Feb 2020 #39
The Velveteen Ocelot Feb 2020 #3
HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #10
LeftTurn3623 Feb 2020 #5
judeling Feb 2020 #18
LeftTurn3623 Feb 2020 #44
judeling Feb 2020 #45
LeftTurn3623 Feb 2020 #48
judeling Feb 2020 #49
LeftTurn3623 Feb 2020 #50
judeling Feb 2020 #51
customerserviceguy Feb 2020 #25
George II Feb 2020 #33
LeftTurn3623 Feb 2020 #41
George II Feb 2020 #46
Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #9
Bumperstickers Feb 2020 #11
Quixote1818 Feb 2020 #29
judeling Feb 2020 #12
Uncle Joe Feb 2020 #13
Scurrilous Feb 2020 #14
HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #15
floppyboo Feb 2020 #16
Bumperstickers Feb 2020 #17
floppyboo Feb 2020 #20
lunasun Feb 2020 #21
George II Feb 2020 #22
Moderateguy Feb 2020 #23
HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #24
still_one Feb 2020 #27
still_one Feb 2020 #26
George II Feb 2020 #28
still_one Feb 2020 #30
BootinUp Feb 2020 #35
Bumperstickers Feb 2020 #36
HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #37
dbolski Feb 2020 #38
squirecam Feb 2020 #40
brooklynite Feb 2020 #47

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 08:57 PM

1. he's creeping up, now only 65% of ppl do not want him lol nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:06 PM

7. And even *more* people don't want each of the *other* candidates.

 

Not sure there's much there to LOL about.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #7)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:00 PM

34. I actually thought the comment you replied to was by someone joking about those types of comments.

 

...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to David__77 (Reply #34)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:58 PM

43. It's not a joke. They repeat it over and over again in every BS thread.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:27 PM

19. Considering how many canddiates remain in the filed I think it's remarkable that

 

Bernie is able to reach this level of support assuming the poll is accurate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 10:03 PM

31. And 86% of people don't want Biden.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:57 PM

42. This argument is SO BORING and overplayed.

 

And totally incorrect. But you’ll keep repeating it like a parrot because that’s what you do.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:02 PM

2. Data for progress?

 

Is this a Sanders outfit?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to rwheeler31 (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:04 PM

4. Yes, it's a pro-Sanders think tank.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 10:07 PM

32. Are you sure about that?

 

Sean McElwee: co-founder and Executive Director

McElwee believes that the party needs more AOCs and Ayanna Pressleys and fewer Bernies. “The path to leftist electoral power is through racial justice and economic justice,” he told me. “Our gains on the left have exclusively come from more diverse candidates.”


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to rwheeler31 (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:06 PM

6. +1000

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to rwheeler31 (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:07 PM

8. They've been pretty good so far.

 

Their Iowa and NH polls were some of the more accurate ones compared to other pollsters.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #8)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:50 PM

39. .

 

NH was pretty good. Iowa was meh.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:02 PM

3. Is that this poll?

 

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287530651
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:08 PM

10. Yep. Turns out they're a pretty good pollster judging by results in Iowa and NH.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:05 PM

5. If Pete gets another 2nd place finish

 

He could really have a shot at this . Seems like the more the voters hear him and get to know him they support him. Every where he goes his numbers go up.

No disrespect to Joe but his numbers go down Wherever he goes.

It’s becoming pretty clear Pete should be the “moderate” candidate left standing in this race.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:26 PM

18. Even that poll shows some serious prolems for Pete

 

His favorable is continuing to fall, as is his consideration for second choice and except for Gabbard his Hispanic support is the worst.

I'm not saying this poll is bad for him but the are some warning signs.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to judeling (Reply #18)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:59 PM

44. If the poll holds up

 

And Amy finishes in 6th place can we all agree it’s time to hang it up?

The field needs to narrow and soon
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #44)

Tue Feb 18, 2020, 12:11 AM

45. Same with Pete.

 

We will have to see what happens.

I certainly believe Pete will be gone before Amy.
The biggest problem with this poll is it pushes to hard. There are no undecided.
Amy's voters are late Breaking that is normal for a Head before Heart candidate like Amy and Liz.

Pete's voters are not. If the Senators had been in the Field for the last Two weeks of Iowa Pete would have struggled to finish 4th. IMO.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to judeling (Reply #45)

Tue Feb 18, 2020, 09:49 AM

48. I will be the first to say Pete should drop when the times comes

 

But what reason do you think Pete should drop before Amy? This poll has Pete maybe getting 2nd place finish in Nevada. He is currently leading in delegates. He won Iowa and almost upset Bernie in NH. This would be 3 straight states he has done good. I agree the upside does not look great long term but nobody doing what he is doing would drop out at this point.

Amy hasn't done anything yet. She finished 5th in Iowa - a distant 3rd in NH and could finish 6th in Nevada. Polling 6th in SC. Nationally she is polling at half of Pete and 6th. She is also currently polling behind Bernie in her home state of Minnesota. If she finishes 6th in Nevada and doesn't drop afterwards she is just being selfish and doing this for herself and not for the people.


and your theory on late breaking voters is not true. They broke for Pete in Iowa and NH.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #48)

Tue Feb 18, 2020, 10:16 AM

49. Because I believ right now Pete's numbers are inflated.

 

He is in the position he is in because he had the field to himself for the last two weeks in Iowa.

I know most people skip past that. But Pete's trend before that was down and the internals reinforce the top line. But by having Iowa to himself without impeachment attacked directly to him allowed him to present the only positive message and keep his troops motivated.

Amy's trend was in exactly the other direction. Those trends have reasserted themselves Amy is now catching Pete again and is likely to pass him as is starting to show even nationally.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to judeling (Reply #49)

Tue Feb 18, 2020, 10:25 AM

50. so what is the excuse for Biden doing so poorly then?

 

He had the field to himself? What about Bernie doing so good? And Warren not doing good?

You can make up things so they seem better but results are results. And Pete is doing better in Nevada than Amy even with all the over hype attention Amy has got and Pete never received.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #50)

Tue Feb 18, 2020, 11:23 AM

51. Biden was directly tied to the Trial

 

He could not escape it.
Bernie and Warren basically stayed where they were in Iowa. Iowa informed NH.
Sanders relies on turnout. He has a solid base that needs to be mobilized. Without him on the ground that was much much more difficult.
Warren's support is much more intellectually based and she needs to be visible to confirm the choice. She has a problem with out of sight out of mind.

I think now that we see the turnout between Iowa and NH we really can see how much that 2 weeks hurt.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:44 PM

25. I agree

 

The campaigns of Biden, Klobuchar and Buttigieg need to figure out pretty quickly who needs to drop out to make it possible for a centrist to corral the needed 36% of the delegates by the convention to allow the superdelegates to push them over the top on the second ballot. Super Tuesday might be too late.

Otherwise, the superdelegates will have to choose between Bernie and Bloomie, and risk losing some part of the Democratic base. The orange turd must be overjoyed.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 10:14 PM

33. Not "another" second place finish, he finished first in the two states that have voted.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #33)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:55 PM

41. He finished 2nd in NH?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LeftTurn3623 (Reply #41)

Tue Feb 18, 2020, 12:19 AM

46. He finished first in both IA and NH (tied for 1st).

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:08 PM

9. I could live with those results nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:10 PM

11. Over 30,000 new Latinos have registered to vote in Nevada

 

According to a latino out reach Group that was on msnbc yesterday, so I figured Sanders would end up in the high 30's. He may take all the delegates in Nevada as the rest of the field is struggling to make the 15 percent threshold.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Bumperstickers (Reply #11)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 10:02 PM

29. Nice. Nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:14 PM

12. Just read the poll and forget the provider for a moment.

 

There is nothing inherently wrong with this poll.

There model my be a bit skewed but they all are to some extent. They have been roughly accurate so far.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:15 PM

13. Kicked and recommended.

 

Thanks for the thread HerbChestnut.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:15 PM

14. That's 22% more than the other one posted today that had Bernie at 13%.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #14)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:22 PM

15. Yep, and this pollster has been pretty good so far according to results in Iowa and NH.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:23 PM

16. I was surprised to see him only 1 point behind Biden with moderates. Yay Bernie!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:25 PM

17. Rcp avg now has Sanders up + 9.0

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html

It is kinda skewed since the suffolk poll was over a month ago before Iowa, so one more poll and that one will be off the avg.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Bumperstickers (Reply #17)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:29 PM

20. Indeed! I am so happy for everyone who has worked so hard!

 

So excited! Bernie and team have done a great job of gathering excitement around the Democratic party platform like no one else!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:33 PM

21. Warren coming back and I'm glad they took in the

 

numbers on this :
Democratic voters strongly support both Medicare for All (69 percent in support, 23 percent opposed) and a Green New Deal (93 percent in support, 6 percent opposed).
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:35 PM

22. Data for Progress conducts it's poll via text messages!!!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #22)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:40 PM

23. Great so Sanders supporters

 

Will assume that the text massage was a GE vote for Bernie and won’t show up to vote 😶
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to George II (Reply #22)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:42 PM

24. Wow!!

 

They've also been pretty accurate so far according to results in Iowa in NH. Maybe they're on to something!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to George II (Reply #22)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:50 PM

27. and its founders a left wing activists with an agenda

 

https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/data-for-progress/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:48 PM

26. Data for Progress? No bias with that poll I am sure

 



https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/data-for-progress/



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #26)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 09:59 PM

28. No bias whatsoever:

 

Data for Progress supports far-left policies, including Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal, and the dismantling of U.S. Immigration Customs and Enforcement (ICE).
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #28)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 10:03 PM

30. I will rely on the other polls, whose organizations don't have a political agenda

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:14 PM

35. Here comes Pete! nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:26 PM

36. This polling company had Sanders. Winning NH 28 to 26 over Pete

 

Spectacular and was within 3 points of Sanders final percentage in Iowa. No one was closer in the first 2 states.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/2020/2/10/sanders-with-narrow-lead-in-new-hampshire
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Bumperstickers (Reply #36)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:28 PM

37. Yup, they've been one of the most accurate pollsters so far.

 

Let's hope it continues
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:35 PM

38. Yeah excellent polling so far by this pollster.

 

It seems like people say negative things about pollsters when it doesn't favor their candidate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 11:53 PM

40. I think both polls today were wrong

 

I didn’t think Bernie dropped to 13% in the first poll. I don’t think he’s at 35% here.

But what I found interesting was the cross tabs for the second and third choices. Bernie came in last for both second and third choices.

What that tells me is what I’ve said before. That Bernie has the most enthusiastic supporters, but an equal group who don’t like him. As Nevada is a caucus, his best round will always be the first. The other candidates will gain more support during the second round.

I think the RJ poll, which is in the “middle” of both of these polls, is a better judge of where the race is.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Feb 18, 2020, 12:20 AM

47. If Biden isn't viable, that'll kill his campaign.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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