New Nevada Poll: Bernie 35, Elizabeth 16, Pete 15, Joe 14

[HerbChestnut]

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/sanders-has-strong-lead-in-nevada

Key Findings:

Senator Bernie Sanders has a commanding nineteen point in the Nevada caucus, with 35 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting him. He is followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Former Vice President Joe Biden who are all tightly clustered at 16, 15 and 14 percentage points, respectively.

Senator Amy Klobuchar, whose third place finish in the New Hampshire primary garnered considerable media coverage sits in sixth place with 9 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting her.

Sanders performs extremely well with Hispanic likely caucusgoers, registering 66 percent support, with no other candidate cracking double digits. He continues to see strong support among younger voters, with likely caucusgoers under 45 supporting him at 64 percent. Of those who have made up their mind, Sanders registers 47 percent support.

Democratic voters strongly support both Medicare for All (69 percent in support, 23 percent opposed) and a Green New Deal (93 percent in support, 6 percent opposed).

[msongs]

1. he's creeping up, now only 65% of ppl do not want him lol nt

[thesquanderer]

7. And even *more* people don't want each of the *other* candidates.

Not sure there's much there to LOL about.

[David__77]

34. I actually thought the comment you replied to was by someone joking about those types of comments.

...

[Gravitycollapse]

43. It's not a joke. They repeat it over and over again in every BS thread.

[totodeinhere]

19. Considering how many canddiates remain in the filed I think it's remarkable that

Bernie is able to reach this level of support assuming the poll is accurate.

[OliverQ]

31. And 86% of people don't want Biden.

[Gravitycollapse]

42. This argument is SO BORING and overplayed.

And totally incorrect. But you’ll keep repeating it like a parrot because that’s what you do.

[rwheeler31]

2. Data for progress?

Is this a Sanders outfit?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. Yes, it's a pro-Sanders think tank.

[progressoid]

32. Are you sure about that?

Sean McElwee: co-founder and Executive Director

McElwee believes that the party needs more AOCs and Ayanna Pressleys and fewer Bernies. “The path to leftist electoral power is through racial justice and economic justice,” he told me. “Our gains on the left have exclusively come from more diverse candidates.”

[UniteFightBack]

6. +1000

[HerbChestnut]

8. They've been pretty good so far.

Their Iowa and NH polls were some of the more accurate ones compared to other pollsters.

[Deero]

39. .

NH was pretty good. Iowa was meh.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Is that this poll?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287530651

[HerbChestnut]

10. Yep. Turns out they're a pretty good pollster judging by results in Iowa and NH.

[LeftTurn3623]

5. If Pete gets another 2nd place finish

He could really have a shot at this . Seems like the more the voters hear him and get to know him they support him. Every where he goes his numbers go up.

No disrespect to Joe but his numbers go down Wherever he goes.

It’s becoming pretty clear Pete should be the “moderate” candidate left standing in this race.

[judeling]

18. Even that poll shows some serious prolems for Pete

His favorable is continuing to fall, as is his consideration for second choice and except for Gabbard his Hispanic support is the worst.

I'm not saying this poll is bad for him but the are some warning signs.

[LeftTurn3623]

44. If the poll holds up

And Amy finishes in 6th place can we all agree it’s time to hang it up?

The field needs to narrow and soon

[judeling]

45. Same with Pete.

We will have to see what happens.

I certainly believe Pete will be gone before Amy.
The biggest problem with this poll is it pushes to hard. There are no undecided.
Amy's voters are late Breaking that is normal for a Head before Heart candidate like Amy and Liz.

Pete's voters are not. If the Senators had been in the Field for the last Two weeks of Iowa Pete would have struggled to finish 4th. IMO.

[LeftTurn3623]

48. I will be the first to say Pete should drop when the times comes

But what reason do you think Pete should drop before Amy? This poll has Pete maybe getting 2nd place finish in Nevada. He is currently leading in delegates. He won Iowa and almost upset Bernie in NH. This would be 3 straight states he has done good. I agree the upside does not look great long term but nobody doing what he is doing would drop out at this point.

Amy hasn't done anything yet. She finished 5th in Iowa - a distant 3rd in NH and could finish 6th in Nevada. Polling 6th in SC. Nationally she is polling at half of Pete and 6th. She is also currently polling behind Bernie in her home state of Minnesota. If she finishes 6th in Nevada and doesn't drop afterwards she is just being selfish and doing this for herself and not for the people.


and your theory on late breaking voters is not true. They broke for Pete in Iowa and NH.

[judeling]

49. Because I believ right now Pete's numbers are inflated.

He is in the position he is in because he had the field to himself for the last two weeks in Iowa.

I know most people skip past that. But Pete's trend before that was down and the internals reinforce the top line. But by having Iowa to himself without impeachment attacked directly to him allowed him to present the only positive message and keep his troops motivated.

Amy's trend was in exactly the other direction. Those trends have reasserted themselves Amy is now catching Pete again and is likely to pass him as is starting to show even nationally.

[LeftTurn3623]

50. so what is the excuse for Biden doing so poorly then?

He had the field to himself? What about Bernie doing so good? And Warren not doing good?

You can make up things so they seem better but results are results. And Pete is doing better in Nevada than Amy even with all the over hype attention Amy has got and Pete never received.

[judeling]

51. Biden was directly tied to the Trial

He could not escape it.
Bernie and Warren basically stayed where they were in Iowa. Iowa informed NH.
Sanders relies on turnout. He has a solid base that needs to be mobilized. Without him on the ground that was much much more difficult.
Warren's support is much more intellectually based and she needs to be visible to confirm the choice. She has a problem with out of sight out of mind.

I think now that we see the turnout between Iowa and NH we really can see how much that 2 weeks hurt.

[customerserviceguy]

25. I agree

The campaigns of Biden, Klobuchar and Buttigieg need to figure out pretty quickly who needs to drop out to make it possible for a centrist to corral the needed 36% of the delegates by the convention to allow the superdelegates to push them over the top on the second ballot. Super Tuesday might be too late.

Otherwise, the superdelegates will have to choose between Bernie and Bloomie, and risk losing some part of the Democratic base. The orange turd must be overjoyed.

[George II]

33. Not "another" second place finish, he finished first in the two states that have voted.

[LeftTurn3623]

41. He finished 2nd in NH?

[George II]

46. He finished first in both IA and NH (tied for 1st).

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. I could live with those results nt

[Bumperstickers]

11. Over 30,000 new Latinos have registered to vote in Nevada

According to a latino out reach Group that was on msnbc yesterday, so I figured Sanders would end up in the high 30's. He may take all the delegates in Nevada as the rest of the field is struggling to make the 15 percent threshold.

[Quixote1818]

29. Nice. Nt

[judeling]

12. Just read the poll and forget the provider for a moment.

There is nothing inherently wrong with this poll.

There model my be a bit skewed but they all are to some extent. They have been roughly accurate so far.

[Uncle Joe]

13. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread HerbChestnut.

[Scurrilous]

14. That's 22% more than the other one posted today that had Bernie at 13%.

[HerbChestnut]

15. Yep, and this pollster has been pretty good so far according to results in Iowa and NH.

[floppyboo]

16. I was surprised to see him only 1 point behind Biden with moderates. Yay Bernie!

[Bumperstickers]

17. Rcp avg now has Sanders up + 9.0

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html

It is kinda skewed since the suffolk poll was over a month ago before Iowa, so one more poll and that one will be off the avg.

[floppyboo]

20. Indeed! I am so happy for everyone who has worked so hard!

So excited! Bernie and team have done a great job of gathering excitement around the Democratic party platform like no one else!

[lunasun]

21. Warren coming back and I'm glad they took in the

numbers on this :
Democratic voters strongly support both Medicare for All (69 percent in support, 23 percent opposed) and a Green New Deal (93 percent in support, 6 percent opposed).

[George II]

22. Data for Progress conducts it's poll via text messages!!!

[Moderateguy]

23. Great so Sanders supporters

Will assume that the text massage was a GE vote for Bernie and won’t show up to vote 😶

[HerbChestnut]

24. Wow!!

They've also been pretty accurate so far according to results in Iowa in NH. Maybe they're on to something!!

[still_one]

27. and its founders a left wing activists with an agenda

https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/data-for-progress/

[still_one]

26. Data for Progress? No bias with that poll I am sure

https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/data-for-progress/

[George II]

28. No bias whatsoever:

Data for Progress supports far-left policies, including Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal, and the dismantling of U.S. Immigration Customs and Enforcement (ICE).

[still_one]

30. I will rely on the other polls, whose organizations don't have a political agenda

[BootinUp]

35. Here comes Pete! nt

[Bumperstickers]

36. This polling company had Sanders. Winning NH 28 to 26 over Pete

Spectacular and was within 3 points of Sanders final percentage in Iowa. No one was closer in the first 2 states.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/2020/2/10/sanders-with-narrow-lead-in-new-hampshire

[HerbChestnut]

37. Yup, they've been one of the most accurate pollsters so far.

Let's hope it continues

[dbolski]

38. Yeah excellent polling so far by this pollster.

It seems like people say negative things about pollsters when it doesn't favor their candidate.

[squirecam]

40. I think both polls today were wrong

I didn’t think Bernie dropped to 13% in the first poll. I don’t think he’s at 35% here.

But what I found interesting was the cross tabs for the second and third choices. Bernie came in last for both second and third choices.

What that tells me is what I’ve said before. That Bernie has the most enthusiastic supporters, but an equal group who don’t like him. As Nevada is a caucus, his best round will always be the first. The other candidates will gain more support during the second round.

I think the RJ poll, which is in the “middle” of both of these polls, is a better judge of where the race is.

[brooklynite]

47. If Biden isn't viable, that'll kill his campaign.