Here's exactly how Michael Bloomberg is surging

[left-of-center2012]

Michael Bloomberg soared into second place nationally in a new NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Monday morning, a stunning surge fueled by hundreds of millions of ads funded by the billionaire former mayor of New York City.

That Bloomberg is now a major factor in the race is beyond question. The more interesting question is who, exactly, are Bloomberg voters? Where are his pockets of support? And perhaps most importantly, who has Bloomberg taken these voters from? A look inside the NPR/PBS/Marist poll suggests that the answer to that final question is, generally speaking, former Vice President Joe Biden.

Bloomberg rose 15 percentage points from the December version of this poll until today. Biden fell 9 points -- from 24% to 15% -- in that same time period. Dig even deeper and you see that a Bloomberg voter today looks a lot like a Biden voter from back in December.

Here's where Bloomberg is running strongest:

1) Moderates: Bloomberg has emerged as the top choice for Democratic voters who view themselves more in the ideological middle of the party. He takes 29% among moderates as compared to 23% for Sanders, 14% for Biden and 13% for Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
2) Non-college whites: This was one of the pillars of Biden's support going into this race -- he's from Scranton! -- but no longer. Among this group, it's Sanders who leads with 34% followed by Bloomberg at 24% and Biden at just 10%. (Among all white voters, Bernie leads with 29% followed by Bloomberg at 18% and Warren at 15%. Biden takes just 9%.)
3) Old(er) voters: While Sanders has a massive lead over the field among voters younger than 45 (he's at 54%!), it's Bloomberg whose the top choice of the 45 and older crowd. He takes 27%, to 22% for Biden and 13% for Sanders.
4) Small-town/rural voters: Yes, it's not exactly the most obvious fit: the guy who spent more than a decade running New York City performing well among people who lives in small towns and rural areas. But here we are! Sanders leads among these voters with 28%, but he is followed closely by Bloomberg at 24%. Biden takes 13%.

If Bloomberg can eat into Biden's support among black voters, Biden is done for. Bloomberg will have fully taken his slot in the race -- and his voters.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/politics/michael-bloomberg-surge-2020-democrats/index.html

[HopeAgain]

1. So maybe not a disaster after all...

NT