Election Update: Bloomberg's Super Tuesday Gamble May Be Paying Off

[nobuddy]

It’s been a good 24 hours for Michael Bloomberg. Early this morning, on the brink of the deadline to do so, the former New York City mayor qualified for Wednesday’s Democratic presidential debate thanks to a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll that gave him 19 percent of the national primary vote. He’s up to 16.3 percent in our national polling average — essentially tying him with former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time. However, he’s still 9 points behind front-runner Sen. Bernie Sanders, and — by Bloomberg’s own design — it will be a couple weeks before we know how much actual voter support Bloomberg has.

That’s because Bloomberg has decided not to contest the first four states on the primary calendar (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina), instead focusing his massive financial resources on the 15 states and territories 1 that vote on Super Tuesday. Since he declared he was running in November, Bloomberg has built out a number of impressive field organizations and has aired millions of dollars’ worth of TV ads — and on Monday, we got a handful of state polls that suggest that investment may pay off. To wit:

>Monmouth University, one of the best pollsters in the biz, found Bloomberg in a virtual tie for first place in Virginia. He and Sanders each received 22 percent support, while Biden grabbed 18 percent. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg got 11 percent, Sen. Amy Klobuchar got 9 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren got 5 percent.

>The excellent SurveyUSA produced very similar results in a poll of next-door North Carolina for WRAL News. Bloomberg and Sanders netted 22 percent each, Biden received 20 percent, Buttigieg got 11 percent, Warren got 8 percent and Klobuchar got 5 percent. That said, SurveyUSA has some small house effects to consider, so our model interprets this more like a poll that showed Sanders and Bloomberg at 21 percent and Biden at 17 percent.

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-bloombergs-super-tuesday-gamble-may-be-paying-off/

[McCamy Taylor]

1. These polls indicate how much people despise Trump

Not how much they love Mike. All he has to do in the debate is keep up the attacks against Trump and he will win more supporters.

[customerserviceguy]

2. During the debates

he'll be fending off attacks against him from the other candidates. And every day, it seems like there's more material to work with.

[BlueIdaho]

3. Why?

I suspect he will answer all questions put to him by moderators as best he can and spend the rest of his time attacking Trump. If other candidates want to attack him - so be it. In the end he will look like the guy that wants to beat Trump, and they will look like they want to beat Bloomberg. Game, set, and match to Bloomberg.

[customerserviceguy]

4. If he sticks to that script

perhaps you're right. I have a feeling that one of the world's richest men is not accustomed to hearing things that challenge his worldview. It will be the job of the best debater to get Bloomie to lose his cool.

[BlueIdaho]

5. Somehow

I don’t see Bloomberg losing his cool...

[customerserviceguy]

7. We'll see

I predict that tomorrow's debate will be one of the most watched of this election cycle so far.

[BlueIdaho]

8. It will be interesting - that's for sure!

Enjoy!

[Blue_true]

9. The guy was Mayor of NYC for 12 years.

That is one of the hottest pressure cookers there is.

[customerserviceguy]

11. He'd buy his way out of trouble in NYC

He won't be able to do that tomorrow night.

[Blue_true]

12. Should be the most interesting debate so far.

The only billionaire Bernie hates more is Bezos.

[Quixote1818]

6. Virginia, FL and AR are the only states he is polling well in. But it is early

https://www.predictit.org/

[Blue_true]

10. There was a polls of Georgia that showed him doing well there. nt