Bernie Sanders takes wide 18 point lead in California primary,

[Bumperstickers]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-02-18/california-poll-democratic-presidential-primary-ppic%3f_amp=true

Public Policy Institute of California

Sanders 32

Biden 14

Warren 13

Bloomberg 12

[David__77]

1. Cool.

My house got its ballots ready!

[ChubbyStar]

5. My 18 year old and I lit a candle sang Wont back down and voted

Her first election!

[David__77]

10. This weekend I visited my mother and she filled her ballot out.

I was a bit surprised that she was set in her vote for Sanders. She didn’t vote for him last time- in any event I was glad.

[at140]

2. What is the date of CA primary?

Sanders is showing no signs of slowing down!

[Garrett78]

8. March 3, Super Tuesday.

[Retrograde]

21. It's already happening

Voting started Feb 3. Some counties -like mine- are doing all vote by mail this time.

[FBaggins]

3. That could be a game-changer

If it were homogeneous (it won’t be) across the state... Bernie would get all of CA’s delegates.

[MoonlitKnight]

7. Yep. Nobody else above 15%

I would think that there will be plenty of delegates from congressional districts.

[jimfields33]

4. That's pretty awesome!

Super Tuesday should be renamed “super bernie” on Wednesday morning.

[Dream Girl]

6. God help us

[Dream Girl]

9. I going to follow the polls here very closely. I will vote for whoever is in striking distance of

Sanders

[Pachamama]

15. You, me and everyone I have spoken to about the upcoming CA Primary have said the exact same thing

Sanders winning will guarantee Trump another 4 years....

I have no doubt about that....

[Bucky]

23. Economist Thomas Piketty argues that aligning against Wall Street is the key to Democratic success

Here's the link for that. It's a fascinating read and well researched. Of course it's only worth a read if you're one of those people whose opinions can be changed by facts.

https://www.salon.com/2018/03/27/pikettys-new-paper-vindicates-bernie-sanders-electoral-strategy/

Current polling tends to back up the claim that Sanders is a stronger challenger to Trump than any "moderate" Democrat.

One constant with polling for Biden is that as the election days get closer, his numbers tend to fade off. It was true in 2008 (when I supported him over Clinton and Obama) and it's true now, when his poll numbers dropped in the final weeks before Iowa, NH, and Nevada. That's the last thing we need in November.

Sanders, as a campaigner, seems to get stronger as election days get closer. Plus he pulls in both low-income whites and disaffected non-voters. Those are critical demogs needed to keep Trump from getting wins in the Great Lakes states like he did in 2016. Remember what a hit he was on Fox News? People understand him. It's mostly the highly educated and the economically affluent who cringe at Bernie's class rhetoric.

He's not my top choice by a long shot--I worry he won't be effective once inaugurated--but I'd have to be blind to not recognize his strong appeal to people who are currently turned off by Democratic leadership.

[Dream Girl]

35. He has not been vetted AT ALL.

They are waiting with baited breath for us to do the deed. He will be toast at the end and so will we. We’ll be standing around like boo boo he fool. Sobbing.

[Bucky]

36. I have to keep telling my GOP friends that ...

... more vigorously restating your emotional reactions is not the same thing as making an argument

[still_one]

31. Problem is my governor Newsom just signed a law that allows someone to change their registration on

election day

This means that a registered republican, can register as a Democrat on election day, and have a say in choosing who the Democratic nominee is

The California Democratic party is already screwed up by allowing those who don't want to be registered as a Democrat, (no party preference), to ask for a Democratic ballot, and have a say in choosing our Democratic nominee

The Democratic party in California has done everything to encourage mischief from non-Democrats, by bending over backwards to allow non-Democrats to vote in their primary.

With Trump now at 49% approval, multiple Democratic candidates competing for the same number of votes, unless something changes, it doesn't look good for us

[Mr.Bill]

11. This will be a test of voter turnout.

My granddaughter is one of the most rabid Bernie supporters you will ever meet. She is 30 years old. She volunteered to work on his campaign four years ago (although they didn't return her Emails or phone calls).

She has said she will vote for Bernie even if he is dead. Only one catch. She has never in her life bothered to vote.

[Skya Rhen]

13. 415 delegates and Bernie could possibly get all thanks to Bloomberg entering late to split the

centrist votes. Thanks Bloomberg.

[Retrograde]

22. Bloomberg is on the CA ballot (n/t)

[still_one]

32. Since Bloomberg has now qualified for the Nevada debate, and since the other Democratic candidates

have avoided bring up Sanders dubious past and associations, along with the media, I am thinking Bloomberg might just be the person to do it, and just maybe, Sanders for once will have to address this in a public forum

Your assessment about Bloomberg splitting the vote is right on, but also Joe, Amy, and Pete are competing for the same block of votes.

With Trump at 49% approval according to the latest polls, choosing the right Democratic nominee is critical, and if the Democrats choose a divisive Democratic nominee who identifies as a Democratic Socialist I think will be a disaster.

We will see how the upcoming primaries fare, but I think the probability of no candidate have the required delegates to cinch the nomination going into the Convention is pretty high, and if that happens I think it is going to get very ugly which will add more uncertainty

[Pachamama]

14. Dream on - Bernie will not win California

[Cal Carpenter]

20. He has a strong lead in recent polls. +13 average

above Biden and Bloomberg.

His odds are pretty good.

[Bucky]

24. Things are volatile, but Sanders does have a pretty reliable base of voters

And all recent polling shows him leading in California. ==> https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html

Look at any state, however. Biden's strongest state right now is South Carolina. But he's dropped 10 points from November to February there. I don't see him picking up much support. In fact, right now Klobuchar and Bloomberg are poised to eat into Biden's support. I love Joe, but he's not a strong candidate. We need to nominate a closer

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_democratic_nomination_polls/

[still_one]

34. The problem is, my state, California has a semi-open primary. That means a person who does NOT want

to be a registered Democrat, and register as (no party preference). The California Democratic party, in their "infinite wisdom", allow those register as NPP to request a Democratic ballot, so they can vote in the Democratic primary. Note that the California republican party does not allow NPP to vote in their primary.

To add insult to injury, Newsom just sign into law, which allows anyone to change their voter registration on election day. Which means that a registered republican, can change his voter registration to Democratic, vote in the Democratic primary, and then change that registration back to republican for the general election.

What in their brilliance will they come up with next, telling registered Democrats that can't vote in the Democratic primary?



California is not predictable at all. We have had our share of republican governors as an example, and California voted against gay marriage with Proposition 8. True, Proposition 8 was a terribly written proposition where if you vote YES it meant you were against gay marriage, and if you vote NO, it meant you were for gay marriage.

It is because of these kinds of things why nothing should be assumed from California

However, Democratic primaries are not all or nothing. Which means that if any candidates which get 15% or more of the vote, they will get delegates on a proportional basis

[highplainsdem]

16. The higher-rated SurveyUSA poll of California, just out, has Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 21%, within MOE

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287536657

[Bumperstickers]

17. Public policy Institute of California is A rated by 538

[dbolski]

18. Wow looks like a blowout!

[jcmaine72]

19. But...but...California is too white and not an accurate representation of 'real America".

Oh wait....

[Bucky]

25. He remember that Gandhi line about "I love Christ but Christians scare me. They're so unlike Christ"

Yeah, insert the words "Bernie" and "BernieBros" in there and you get to see the problem with the Sanders candidacy.

He's having a great moment right now, but he's still not winning majorities in any state--he may have a ceiling of 30-35% in any given state. If the moderates line up behind one candidate after SuperTuesday and Bernie drops to second place without losing support, they're gonna start crying "It's a conspiracy against Bernie!"

Such a shame. Sanders could do so much good if he could bring more disaffected voters back into the electoral process. It could give us a strong win--and a strong rejection of authoritarianism, which this country desperately needs. But he's gonna need to tame his fans at some point. And more importantly, whoever we nominate will need to appeal to them, which sadly didn't happen in big enough numbers in 2016.

[stopbush]

26. I voted by mail last week in CA - for Mike.

[honest.abe]

27. A more recent Survey USA poll shows it much closer.. Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 21%, Biden 15%

I consider Survey USA to be the best polling operation in the country. I suspect it's going to be a close one between Sanders and Bloomberg.

This poll was conducted 02/13/20 through 02/16/20.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00eb4f81-c6dd-4c7c-a22e-c32a3b4f2c7e

[Bumperstickers]

28. Actually the ppic is the more recent poll

Since it was conducted through 02/17/20 and is considered the gold standard in California with a A rating from 538

And considering the rcp avg is Sanders +13.5 currently I would say the survey usa poll is a outlier.

[honest.abe]

29. Nope. PPIC poll started February 7 so most of that poll was done before the Survey USA poll.

If one assumes the polling was done evenly over the entire time frame. Furthermore Bloomberg is still on the rise so by now he may be ahead.

[counting]

30. 41% black voters for bloomberg and 17% for joe?.. seems outlier eom.

[honest.abe]

33. Or a sign of things to come for Biden among AA voters.

If he does poorly in NV and SC, more will move to Bloomberg.