Sanders Takes the Lead for Democratic Nomination, Bloomberg on the Rise (Emerson poll)

[brooklynite]

Emerson Polling Institute

A new Emerson College National Poll finds Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders taking the lead, now at 29% support. Falling to second is former VP Joe Biden at 22%, followed by former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg at 14%, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 12%, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8%, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar at 6%, Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard at 4%, and Businessman Tom Steyer at 3%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling finds "Sanders continues to build upon his base and has solidified his position as the frontrunner. Biden has lost support, especially among African-Americans, which now opens the door for Bloomberg, maybe Buttigieg or even Klobuchar to win over the moderate voter and become the alternative to Sanders going into Super Tuesday."

Since the previous national poll in January, Sanders, Buttigeg and Klobuchar gained two points, Biden has fallen eight points, Bloomberg moved up seven points, and Warren lost one point.

Sanders continues to draw his base of support from younger voters as he garners 39% support among voters under 50. Following him in that group is Biden at 16%, Warren at 15%, and Bloomberg at 9%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden leads with 31% support, followed by Bloomberg at 20%, Sanders at 15%, Klobuchar at 9%, and Buttigieg at 8%.

[Iliyah]

1. Well this poll even looks better for VP Biden . . .

Anywho, the polls showing approval % for t-rump is totally bullshit.

[OneCrazyDiamond]

2. Is this the same poll that shows only Sanders beating trump?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483642-poll-trump-edges-out-all-top-2020-democratic-candidates-except-sanders

I wish folks around here would at least entertain the idea of President Sanders. Should he win the nomination we need everyone on board. Yes, and vise versa.

[brooklynite]

3. Whether I'm on board has nothing to do with whether I think he'll win (and I don't)

I've worked on campaigns I knew were doomed to failure to try an limit the damage.

[democrattotheend]

4. I'm not impressed with this poll

Two issues:
1) They used only landline phones and then online panel for people who have cell phones. This is a cheap way of doing it, since you can't do automated calls to cell phones, but with a shrinking number of people who use landlines it seems like it might not be representative.
2) They weighted based on party registration. Not quite as bad as weighting on party ID, but most good pollsters don't weight on either because those factors tend to fluctuate based on people's political views at the time. Weighting is supposed to be used for fixed variables such as race, gender, age, geography, etc.