Biden only one who maintains matchup lead in swing states

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Vs. matchup lead overall

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-wsj-poll-sanders-opens-double-digit-national-lead-n1138191

Snip

In hypothetical general-election matchups, Trump trails five major Democratic candidates, but all of his deficits — except against Biden — are within the poll's margin of error.

Biden leads Trump nationally by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. Bloomberg is ahead by 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent. Sanders (50 percent to 46 percent) and Buttigieg (48 percent to 44 percent) hold 4-point advantages over Trump. And Klobuchar leads the president by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent.

But many of these margins get smaller when the race is narrowed to voters from 11 battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
But many of these margins get smaller when the race is narrowed to voters from 11 battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Bloomberg's lead decreases to 2 points, (48 percent to 46 percent); Sanders (49 percent to 48 percent) and Klobuchar (48 percent to 47 percent) to 1 point; and Buttigieg is tied with Trump (47 percent to 47 percent).

Only Biden maintains his same lead, 52 percent to 44 percent

[Skya Rhen]

1. Joe certainly does.

[TwilightZone]

2. There's too much focus on national polls.

They really don't mean anything. This election is going to come down to the states they mentioned, at most. Might come down to just a few again.

I'd like to see breakdowns by state, but there isn't enough recent polling data in many of them to provide a decent picture.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. You did read the list of battlegrounds right?

[TwilightZone]

7. Yes.

My point is that this is the kind of data we should be focusing on instead of national polls. Better data at the state level would also be more helpful than an 11-state aggregate, but some states aren't being polled much yet.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. Agree. But they all serve a purpose. You can see

overall favorability if you look at national trends. Not likely our candidate's gonna be down vs. trump 30 points in PA if his national matchups are up 30 points. Outlandish #s to make a point

Agree, good individual state polls of likely Dem voters in matchups with Dipshit will be most vital

[Freddie]

3. Exactly

Because we’re stuck with the horrible EC, there’s only a few states that really matter. That has to be the #1 priority.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. Yet isn't that Bernie's strategy to run up votes in a group

of liberal states and forget the rest?

[Freddie]

11. Which is monumentally stupid

95% of the California vote doesn’t mean squat if we can’t get 51% in Pennsylvania. It’s a horrible system but we’re stuck with it for now.

[Boulevardier]

12. Why do you think that's his strategy?

He wants to be president and he's not dumb.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. Aha. so there is no strategy? Do tell

[Squinch]

4. That's a strong argument. Probably the strongest I have seen to appeal to me, a person whose

only goal is to beat Trump.

My primary is late, but I'll keep an eye on these numbers. Thanks for pointing that out.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. It's always been for me - a pragmatist. But you have

To wait a long time for good swing matchup polls. And wait to see if there's a change if someone on our side drops out.

We will face tRussian interference that we couldn't stop despite it being a proven fact and Mueller pleading us to do something.

We've got to go with the one with the widest margin. Enough so trump can't claim he made up a small deficit. I don't know what that number is.

[Squinch]

10. I agree. I'm bookmarking this.

[Cha]

14. KR

[MoonlitKnight]

15. Something is missing

Can you find it?