Living in the Moment during Primary Season

[MineralMan]

We all do it. We hang on every word spoken in last night's debate or on the results from yesterday's primary. We make predictions about outcomes based on momentary data. We can't help ourselves. Our emotional responses focus on things that have happened most recently. It is one of the most common and powerful cognitive biases we all share. It's called the recency cognitive bias.

However, that same cognitive heuristic shortcut taken by our brain's limbic system also means that we tend to forget about what happened one day as soon as some new information becomes available. The Nevada primary debate will affect Nevada, mostly, and one candidate won't even be on the caucus ballots there. It might also affect South Carolina, somewhat, but new information will be available in another debate on February 25. That's going to be a big one, since it's the last debate before Super Tuesday, and it will get a lot of viewers. What happens in it will replace yesterday's debate, due to the cognitive bias I mentioned above.

None of that matters, though, in the long term. Campaigns change from day to day and week to week. We remember impressions from what we see, but those impressions can be altered by what we see next.

We'll still live in the moment. At any moment, something can occur that wipes out what we think we knew a moment before.

[RobertDevereaux]

1. Incisive!

Thank you.