New Quinnipiac state poll released minutes ago

[evertonfc]

Trump up by 7-11 points agianst all D's in Wisconsin. All D's up in PA by a few but Biden does best. All D's up 3-5 in Michigan. Nate Cohn thinks WI may not be competitive anymore

[PatSeg]

1. Trump up by 7-11 point

against all D's in Wisconsin. That's rather odd.

[evertonfc]

2. I couldn't post it but you can find it

[PatSeg]

14. Thanks, I'll look for it

[33taw]

3. It is competitive, Walker go beat. Too bad none of the candidates come to WI.

It would help. They wasted so much time in Iowa courting people who routinely vote red. Trump routinely comes to rural WI blowing off his big mouth.

[PatSeg]

5. I agree

Wisconsin has a lot of potential. Candidates need to go there. I remember a lot of strong liberal and pro union voices in Wisconsin during the Walker years.

[Kaleva]

50. Bloomberg is advertising heavily in Wi.

"If you're a Wisconsin voter, you can be excused if you think former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is the only Democrat running for president."

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/01/31/michael-bloomberg-ad-barrage-continues/4625580002/

[jimfields33]

53. Iowa Voted blue in 2008 and 2012.

[33taw]

54. True. I was looking at 2016, their Governor, and Senators. All republican in Iowa.

WI has replaced their Governor, SOS, Treasurer, and AG with Democrats in 2018. WI also has both a republican and democratic Senator. The most recent senate race was in 2018 and went for Baldwin by the 6% points even after multiple attacks by republicans. Writing them off is foolish. I believe this shows a pattern of trending back to blue. We would be foolish to listen to a poll.

There has been too much manipulation of data and results for me to trust any poll.

I think too much effort is put into Iowa. Just not enough bang for the buck at the cost of other places we could for us on including:WI, VA, NC, GA, AZ and MI. IMO.

[jimfields33]

55. All good points.

[kimbutgar]

61. The poll sounds overweighted by Repukes and isn't the state getting hit by MF45 tariffs?

No this is a poll meant to discourage Democratic turnout. Total BS!

[33taw]

63. There have been nearly 900 farm bankruptcies in 2019.

The ginseng business it really impacted. They are in a very red area of the state the Trump goes to (Mosinee).

Sonny Perdue came here and said of small farms "In America, the big get bigger and the small go out,"

There were also cuts to to the Great Lakes project that impact WI.

[CalFione]

4. We can swap Wisconsin for Arizona... but we'll need the right candidate to do it

[PatSeg]

6. I think we need to think 50 state solution

like Howard Dean did. We shouldn't have to swap one state for another. We can have both Wisconsin and Arizona if we can get out the vote.

[The Revolution]

37. This

We need to get back to the strategy that led to big wins in 2006 and 2008. Abandoning states just leads to them shifting more and more red since they never even hear from Dems.

[PatSeg]

40. Hopefully

some day we'll get rid of the electoral college and then every vote will count during a presidential election. There are plenty of Democrats in so-called red states, but they must get sick of their votes not counting.

[thesquanderer]

43. Or maybe even Texas, surprisingly enough. (n/t)

[videohead5]

7. Wait until we get more

Polls of Wisconsin. I have my doubts about this poll. Hillary did much better than this. It does not jive.

[JCMach1]

25. I think WI is an outlier... What it does signal is how purple

WI is this cycle.

[honest.abe]

8. If we lose Wisconsin again it could end up in a tie.

[KPN]

12. And then we would lose because we know the GOP will find a nefarious way to rip

the WH from potential Dem grasp. Try as we might.

[nobuddy]

64. No, they will legally pick the president

In the case of a tie, the election goes to the House. However, it’s one vote per state not per Congressperson. Republicans control more states than Democrats despite being in the minority.

As currently stands with polls, we actually need to pick up the Omaha delegate just to tie last I checked. ME-2 is out of reach.

[KPN]

66. Ah another no longer sensible construct like

the EC. We are so frigging screwed.

[nobuddy]

67. Well, land votes or something

[StevieM]

17. Actually, under this map the GOP would probably win the 2nd Congressional district of Maine.

So Trump would hit 270.

We should campaign hard in North Carolina and Arizona. I believe both states are winnable.

[honest.abe]

22. Is that second district of Maine solid Red?

I didnt know that.

[StevieM]

24. I wouldn't say that it is solid red.

I would say that in a close race it will lean red.

And if the GOP can win Wisconsin then they might have a slight advantage in the 2nd congressional district of Maine.

[honest.abe]

26. Thanks!

[nobuddy]

65. We need to organize in Omaha

to offset ME2

[StevieM]

68. I was actually thinking that when I was writing that post.

We should fight to hold onto ME-2 and we should also fight to win NE-2.

[nobuddy]

70. ME-2 will go +10 for trump

And if we tie we lose because of how the tie is broken. We need to flip a state.

[musicblind]

51. I live in North Carolina, and I just don't see it as winnable anymore.

It feels far more conservative than it used to. I hope I'm wrong.

If it comes down to it, I think the North Carolina money should be spent in Arizona. This Wisconsin poll is an outlier, too. So spending it in Wisconsin might be wise. Especially if regionally relevant Klobuchar or Buttigieg are the nominees.

[turbinetree]

9. Quininnpac poll................

https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=3656

[PatSeg]

15. Who on earth did they poll for this?

WISCONSIN

Among registered voters in Wisconsin, President Trump leads the Democratic candidates by between 7 and 11 percentage points in head to head election matchups:
Trump tops Senator Amy Klobuchar 50 - 39 percent;
Trump leads Senator Elizabeth Warren 51 - 41 percent;
Trump beats former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg 49 - 41 percent;
Trump tops former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 49 - 41 percent;
Trump defeats Senator Bernie Sanders 50 - 43 percent;
Trump is ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden 49 - 42 percent.

Those are some bizarre numbers.

[turbinetree]

18. I do not trust the Quinnnapac polling ever....................

[TwilightZone]

29. His approval rating (Marquette) in WI is 48%.

So the numbers are pretty much in line, as inexplicable as they may appear.

[SDANation]

30. This could explain

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 32%
Democrat 26
Independent 35
Other/DK/NA 6

+/- 3.4 percentage pts, if Trump enjoys a 90% + approval rating among republicans, could really push the poll that direction.

Could be heavily weighted republicans or republican leaning

[PatSeg]

39. That would make sense

[Meadowoak]

56. Senior citizens who answer rotary dial telephones in the daytime.

[PatSeg]

72. Yeah

People who pick up the phone even when they don't recognize the caller. I am a senior citizen though and I never answer the phone if I don't know the caller.

[Recursion]

10. The future of the Democratic party is brown and Southern

WI is a lost cause. I argued this in 2016 when we were wasting phone bankers' time there. Florida is a more realistic target, and it's not a great one. Georgia and North Carolina are great ones, though.

[StevieM]

20. We can disagree about whether WI is a lost cause, but thank you for pointing out that we DID fight

to win that state in 2016.

We had a huge ground operation there. And we spent enormous amounts of money there in advertising. It is true that we didn't hold rallies in a state where polls showed us up by double digits. But that is not uncommon. And it is ridiculous how the media acts like we did nothing there at all.

Then again, it is ridiculous that they sometimes tack on Michigan, a state where we did hold rallies, for good measure. And sometimes people tack on the whole Midwest....or all the battleground states. Facts no longer matter, just finding a way to believe something that allows you to justify your rage and contempt.

[honest.abe]

23. With Sanders Florida is probably a lost cause as well.

He polls terrible there.

[Recursion]

27. True but he does better in GA and NC

There's definitely a path for Sanders to the White House, I just worry about what Congress looks like in its wake.

[honest.abe]

28. Yep.

It could be ugly

[uponit7771]

45. This poll doesn't look right for WI, that's an 8 point swing in less than 5 days on 538 (link)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/

[KPN]

11. Ignore Wisconsin at our risk.

[videohead5]

13. Another poll

Taken a week ago had Biden and Bernie both tied with Trump in Wisconsin.

[PatSeg]

16. Something about that poll

just doesn't sound right.

[videohead5]

19. I think it's a outlier

I wonder if NBC/WSJ polled Wisconsin the other day? I know they polled the battleground state.

[PatSeg]

38. Yeah, it is so far off

from other polls I've seen. I'm sure it makes Trump happy for awhile though.

[mahina]

21. Thank you. This is the info I need.

National polls feel good but aren’t important. This is the stuff.

Paul Wellstone, bless us.

[SDANation]

31. This could explain

This could explain
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 32%
Democrat 26
Independent 35
Other/DK/NA 6

+/- 3.4 percentage pts, if Trump enjoys a 90% + approval rating among republicans, could really push the poll that direction.

Could be heavily weighted republicans or republican leaning

[videohead5]

33. Yeah

It looks like an outlier. They over polled Republicans.

[Jirel]

32. Does anyone care what Nate Cohn thinks?

It's February. The general is in November. Literally anything can happen, including finishing the slide to dictatorship so there will be no election.

[nobuddy]

34. There was an article a few months(?) back

about how AA's in Milwaukee didn't vote. About 2% (from memory, may be different number but it was really low) were stripped of their voting rights. The vast majority who stayed home was apathy and hopelessness - they felt their lot hasn't changed one lick so why bother. And that if just 25%(?) of the AA's who didn't vote that year turned out for HRC, she would have carried the state.

We need to address this this year.

[BlueWI]

59. Yep.

There's greater disenfranchisement among Milwaukee's black community than in many other places. Deindustrialization and disinvestment hit the city hard, and with a Republican majority in the legislature, it's hard to make the kind of substantive investments needed to move towards a better economic and social climate.

It's going to take a much more hands on approach to change this, and it's good that the convention is in Milwaukee this year.

[nobuddy]

62. Same is true for Flint

Again this is from memory so some details may be off.

Black unemployment in Milwaukee is still massive. They came out in record numbers in 2008. By 2012 the needle barely moved for black unemployment compared to white unemployment. By 2016 they gave up. Interviews with black residents who didn’t vote in 2016 said it doesn’t matter who is in office; they’re still going to be poor and forgotten about.

Our nominee needs to address their despair and grievances. They (and everyone really) want someone to vote for not someone to vote against.

[BlueWI]

71. agreed

The Flint water crisis and Detroit's bankruptcy were both cases where a harder push and stronger presence would have made a difference on election day. IMO, the Obama team completely screwed the pooch when Detroit faced bankruptcy - they barely put out a press release, and this is a city that is often considered one of the capitals of Black America. Someone on his team should have insisted that the administration stand up more firmly for Detroit, with at least some commission meetings and some signaling of determined support. The actual response was so muted that it barely counts as a response.

We paid for this mistake in 2016, and we should take a lesson from what happened before we pay for it again in 2020.

[ibegurpard]

35. I don't buy this poll at all

Is Wisconsin a lock for us? Hell no. Are we in danger of losing there again? Hell yes. But there's no way he is up by at least 7 points against every Democratic challenger.
He only won the state by less than a percentage point in 2016.
Wisconsin just elected a Democratic governor in 2018.
He is underwater in the state by every poll taken:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/approval_rating/president/wi/president_trump_job_approval_in_wisconsin-6233.html

With all this I'm expected to believe that Wisconsin has suddenly swung THAT much in favor of him so recently? How?

[Awsi Dooger]

48. Agreed...Wisconsin is a problem but this is not representative poll

I would estimate Trump leads by 3-4 points in that state

2020 is not 2018. The out party always somehow always believes that the presidential race will be a rerun of the midterm. Benefit of a doubt returns to the incumbent.

None of this should be surprising. I realize I'm not popular here for pointing out the monumental task of ousting an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. Big deal. Day to day developments are always comically trivial compared to long term foundational realities.

[corbettkroehler]

36. Meanwhile, Sanders' National Lead Over tRump Remains Unchanged

Link to tweet

[marble falls]

46. How do you figure?

[ancianita]

41. Primary polls don't always correlate with GE polls. It's still too far out. imo

[ancianita]

49. But the GE's not here yet. Anyone can say anything in the heat of primary season.

Representative samples, margins of error are ignored in service of PR media effects and voter audience conditioning.

[BlueWI]

60. True, but...

it's not wise to ignore warning signs. This is a legitimate polling organization that has reminded us of how critical the Wisconsin vote is, and without an energetic campaign in the state, it may stay in the red column. I'm cautiously optimistic, but there is a lot of work to do and it would be a mistake to dismiss the poll results.

[uponit7771]

44. Unnnnn, I need to see more polls. That's an 8 point swing with Biding in less than 5 days, that does

... not seem right.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/

[Celerity]

58. I do not see what you are claiming at your link at all

You are comparing two separate pollsters and the other one was taken on January 14th to the 16th,, around 5 weeks ago, not 5 days ago.


Look at the dates of the actual polling, NOT when the poll was listed on 538.




https://www.wmc.org/wp-content/uploads/WMC-Polling-analysis-memo-Jan-2020.pdf

[Nanjeanne]

52. I think WI is in play. Give our candidates a chance to campaign there.

[jcmaine72]

57. Quinnipiac is Algonquin for bullshit.

[tritsofme]

69. Do you have an actual issue with Quinnipiac? Or do you just not like the results?