If Sanders wins Nevada, he will win the nomination for sure

[Legends303]

I think DU needs to accept this, I can't see how he doesn't get the nomination at this point, he doesn't need to win the South to get the nomination. Also as we promised whoever gets the nomination we need to stand behind him and support him as we go into the fall towards the general election and defeat the most corrupt President of our lifetime.

[LAS14]

1. To help you see.... He wins 30% of the delegates in every state.

He goes into the convention where 70% of the delegates want anyone but him. Is it a little clearer????

[squirecam]

2. As you can see from last night

The Sanders people won’t agree to that.

[jimfields33]

5. As they definitely shouldn't!!!!

[still_one]

38. Then he is going back on his word, because he agreed those rules

[jimfields33]

48. I think for this I'm ok with him evolving.

[brooklynite]

54. Like he evolved on his medical records?

[jimfields33]

57. Not sure that's in the constitution

We have had plenty of presidents even in our party that weren’t the healthiest, but I’m sure glad they were president.

[still_one]

62. You are right it isn't. It is someone going back on his word. There is a name for that

actually

[jimfields33]

63. I know. There's two items he's going to have to explain before the general

Medicare for all and medical records. He likely will.

[still_one]

66. I suspect you are right

[sdfernando]

69. I'm not sure where your are going with the "Not sure that's in the constitution" comment

the Democratic Convention rules are not in the Constitution either....if fact the is nothing ZERO mention of even any political party in the Constitution.

The Democratic Convention rules were laid out and anyone running as a Democrat, (yes even Bernie) agreed to those rules. You don't change the rules in the middle of the game because you perceive you may lose if you continue to play by them.

I actually do like Bernie and many of his proposed policies....I do not like that he uses the resources of the Democratic party and runs for the Democratic nomination and then doesn't accept it in his Senate run. Join the party or run your independent campaigns on your own....or run as a republican.

I do not like that he as walked back his release of medical records....it makes me think about what else he promises that he will chose to not honor.

I do not like that he surrounds himself with people that don't support the Democratic party and vote 3rd party or not at all...because the Democratic nominee isn't "pure" enough.

[onetexan]

65. Bazinga!!

[still_one]

58. It isn't a question of him evolving. He was part of these rules and agreed to it

if he goes in with only 30%, and refuses to abide by the rules he agreed to, the 70% will not put up with that unless he can convince them otherwise, and if he can’t, and refuses a second vote which includes SD, because no one has sufficient delegates for the nomination, and won’t abide by the rules he agreed to, then Trump will get a second term, it is as simple as that

[jimfields33]

61. We have a long way to go to worry about this.

[still_one]

64. To be honest Jim, I am not particularly worried, whatever happens, happens. Of course I hope things

get resolved to everyone’s satisfaction, but I have accepted that it may not work out that way, and there is a potential for chaos which wouldn’t be good for anyone

[jimfields33]

67. Me too.

I’m good with all but one who was on the stage. I’d vote for him but not happily only due to the complete opposite of democratic values. But will vote for him in the general.

[still_one]

70. I suspect you are referring to Bloomberg, and I feel the same way also

[jimfields33]

74. Definitely

[murielm99]

60. He agreed to release his

medical records and taxes, too.

[Happy Hoosier]

44. Pretty hypocritical....

since they argued exactly the opposite in 2016.

[jimfields33]

49. 2020 whole new primary and election

Clean slate.

[Happy Hoosier]

72. How convenient!!!! NT

[jimfields33]

75. Has to be that way

What use is it to dwell on 2016?

[onetexan]

79. sure. Doesn't erase the fact BS speaks out of both sides of his mouth.

[W_HAMILTON]

10. Then I guess they better start making friends instead of enemies...

...because each of the other candidates on that stage won't agree to what Sanders agreed to and they have been winning around ~75% of the vote so far.

[pnwmom]

11. The 70% will. n/t

[still_one]

37. Exactly. These rules were agreed to by all the candidates including Sanders, now he goes back on

his word

Assuming the polls stay the same, and are correct, 70% of voters want someone else

That means if no one has sufficient delegates for the nomination going into the convention, there will be a second round of voting with super delegates

Giving the nomination to someone with 30% is snubbing 70% who want someone else

That is why in that case there would be a second round of voting with super delegates

Why is Sanders going back on his pledge to abide by rules he agreed to?

[pnwmom]

40. Also, in 2016, he went to the convention with the aim of persuading enough delegates

to switch to him to overturn the primary results, which he'd lost on the basis of pledged delegates alone.

He did this quite openly. Imagine how he'd have responded if HRC had won the nomination with only 30% of the regular delegates.

[still_one]

42. Exactly. I really hope people understand what is happening. You had an excellent thread the other

day explaining this in great detail which I appreciated very much

Wanting to disenfranchise 70% of the Democratic voters is not a good thing

[thesquanderer]

47. re: "in 2016, he went to the convention with the aim of persuading enough delegates to switch"

No, the convention started July 25, and he endorsed Hillary on July 12.

[pnwmom]

50. I guess he forgot to tell his supporters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/25/us/politics/protests-convention-bernie-sanders-philadelphia.html

[nobuddy]

3. I'm okay with Warrbidbutticharberg coming out of the convention as our nominee.

[handmade34]

13. if only

[nobuddy]

16. We can stack them one on top of the other

and hide them under the world's longest trench coat.

[still_one]

39. Same here

[FBaggins]

18. That isn't how it works

First... he could easily get 30% of the vote and still get many more than 30% of the delegates.

Second... if Warren gets 10% of the delegates... do you see all 90% of the others are "anyone by Warren"?

[ancianita]

4. Super Tuesday could undo all that.

[jimfields33]

12. Nope

Sanders is beating them in California, Texas, and every other state. The others will be begging for spots on his administration. But except warren, he should say no too. He should pick progressive democratic politicians only. We’ve done the same ole same ole thing for 75 years. That’s over!

[handmade34]

15. an administration

is not worth much without a House and Senate

[jimfields33]

19. We got that don't worry

Also first day he’ll go to Senator shumer and dump the filibuster. This is going to be the best years of our lives!

[ancianita]

26. I so look forward to your being right.

[Submariner]

31. What do you mean "We got that don't worry"

Show me and show me fast just how you pull that off.

[Happy Hoosier]

45. "and then the revolution will happen"

The essential ingredient to any Sanders plan.

[HarlanPepper]

32. Fantasyland nonsense, but spectacular unintentional comedy.

[TwilightZone]

34. Sanders supports the filibuster.

As he has said repeatedly.

[BeyondGeography]

36. Didn't you hear? The Revolution will be so massive as to be filibuster-proof.

Bernie is a NO on ditching the filibuster.

[Codeine]

81. Adorable. nt

[SoFlaDem]

55. So let's start working on that

Trump brought the Senate and House along with him so surely Sanders could do the same because he's a hell of a lot better than Trump. Bernie will have to get a wave of populist excitement to win, and if it happens I believe it will bring big change. Let's leave doom and gloom with 2016.

[tritsofme]

28. lol, perhaps a bit early to be already measuring drapes?

[CalFione]

30. Your #bendtheknee approach doesn't help your candidate

[The Mouth]

56. Yang should be in ANY Democratic administration

Never said anything negative about any other candidate, all about ideas.

I do like the idea of Kamala Harris as Secretary of State; to see all those other world leaders have to kiss the ass of a Woman of Color (no, the VP is *not* going to be from California, or any other solid blue state, you pick a VP from a swing state in play and to be honest, she's *too* much of a prosecutor for A.G. in my opinion, OTOH S.O.S. needs to be a hard ass and she could rip Putin a new one better than anyone else we got)

[W_HAMILTON]

6. Assuming Biden wins South Carolina...

...that means Sanders would have won as many early states this time (two) as he did last time around, and we all know how well that turned out for him.

Why exactly are we supposed to believe that he will inevitably win the nomination with a win in Nevada? And even if he were to do so, Sanders himself was mathematically eliminated from the nomination after Super Tuesday last time around and he still stuck it out through the convention, so, why should anyone else bow out when they could follow his lead, especially given that Sanders most likely will not secure the majority of delegates needed to win the nomination outright?

[juliuswest]

41. You can't really compare 2016 to 2020 on the Democratic side

Sanders did do well in the early rounds then after California and the entire south really became apparent he wasn't going to come back. This time around you have to see it as similar to the Republican 2016 primaries, Trump coasted in that 25 - 30% lane while all the other hopeful contenders (Rubio, Cruz, Bush, etc) splintered the "moderate" vote.

Even my die hard Hillary Clinton friend called me the day before the debate and said he's going to get the nomination. I'm a little more skeptical because who knows whats going to happen, but based on the current trajectory of polling and the continued splintering of the "middle lane" it's mathematically unlikely anyone can catch up. Going to the convention and forming a majority like a parliament is another story, I'm just talking about winning the most states outright as a candidate.

[W_HAMILTON]

82. The Republican primary is not comparable to the Democratic one.

The rules are completely different (e.g., more winner-take-all and winner-take-more states in the Republican primary vs. proportional winners in the Democratic primary). Furthermore, Trump won ~35% of the votes cast through Super Tuesday and -- due to the difference in rules already mentioned -- won an even greater share of delegates (~43%) than his vote count, whereas Sanders is hovering closer to around ~25% of the vote right now and is on pace to win far fewer delegates this time around than he did during the last nomination, which he ended up losing handily.

[juliuswest]

83. That is a key difference

If the Democrats operated like the republicans then Bernie would cruise to the nomination according to the polls and enthusiasm on the ground, but I do concede your point, he won't run away with it. It most likely will go to the convention and will depend on how far ahead the first place candidate settles, under 100 delegates, you could easily see fair grounds to put forward a moderate like Joe. But that will alienate the "Bernie Bros" and the democratic party will have an existential crisis on its hands. Unless Warren wins over the progressive Bernie crowd, which she could.

[apcalc]

7. No. Nevada is s caucus. Non representative.

Party activists and those able bodied with time on their hands. A Nevada win is ho-hum.

Hoping states do away with caucuses. They mean little, but are cheaper to run than primaries.

[jimfields33]

14. They've changed with three weeks of early voting

Everyone can vote or go to caucus but voters are going in record numbers.

[apcalc]

21. You have a point!

[ahoysrcsm]

87. umm... no... Nevada had 4 days of Early Caucus.

February 15-18 with most sites only available on 15th, 16th, and 18th. And some only available on the 15th and 18th.

Did I miss something?

[jimfields33]

93. I think I did

Now I’m even more confused over Nevada. How can you caucus early? I thought it was a hybrid of actual voting and caucus. Sorry I’m so out of touch with this.

[pnwmom]

8. He himself four years ago went to the convention still in the hope that he could get the

superdelegates to change their minds and back him. He said this. It was his plan, at the time. I wonder why he's changed his views.

Now, superdelegates don't get a vote till after the 1st round. But in the likely event that he only gets the 30% or so that he's been getting so far, I don't see all those "establishment Democrats" suddenly deciding to give the nod to him, rather than to a candidate who they view as more conciliatory and more likely to appeal to the 70%.

[HarlanPepper]

33. Unless he clears the exact delegate threshold he needs 2,000 something, whatever it is.

It will go to a second ballot where you correctly point out SOMEONE ELSE will be nominated. Probably won’t be too pretty but sometimes in life necessary things aren’t always pretty.

[riversedge]

9. also If SHE gets the nomination, we will unite.

[kentuck]

17. No, I don't think so.

A caucus is not the same as a primary.

Super Tuesday will separate the contenders from the pretenders.

[videohead5]

20. I don't think so

That means Bernie has only won 2 states with a bunch of states that have not voted yet to come.

[krissey]

24. Actually, lost Iowa, tied NH and then if he wins NV, it would be a loss, tie and win.

Counting delegates. Hardly a slam dunk.

[Squinch]

22. .

[CalFione]

23. nonsense

right now, Bernie has 21 delegates. Buttigieg has 23, Liz has 8, Amy has 7, and Joe has 6.

if the current polls in NV are what happens, the delegate race after NV will be

Bernie 39
Buttigieg 29
Liz 14
Joe 12
Amy 7

if the current polls in SC are what happens, it will be this going into Super Tuesday:

Bernie 48
Joe 39
Buttigieg 29
Liz 23
Steyer 9
Amy 7


does that look “over” to you?

[kelly1mm]

68. "Was it over when the Nazi's bombed Pearl Harbor?" ........... j/k!

[ahoysrcsm]

88. Yep, it's over... 21 delegates beats 6...

Oh... umm... I mean... Sanders did raise the most money last quarter. And dollars equals speech, err... go... Sanders won, no need to hold the remaining 48 contests...

WHAT?!?! he's loosing to a Mayor?!?!? but he's beating all others by double digits... SO WINNING!!??!!!!

Sanders was a Mayor once, so he knows... he knows...

For those that NEED it.

[evertonfc]

25. and Trump wins reelection- for sure

[PubliusEnigma]

27. Nice try. Noone will have enough delegates to win by the convention.

Democratic Party sensibility will prevail.

Will you revolt when that happens? Or will you vote for the Democrat in November?

[Zolorp]

29. That's complete bullshit

Last edited Thu Feb 20, 2020, 08:59 PM - Edit history (1)

101 total delegates chosen is nowhere near 1990 needed to nominate or the 3979 available delegates.

And even winning Nevada, Sanders won't have anywhere near 51 total delegates! And that's only half of what will have been assigned, for Christ's sake!

[Blue_true]

85. Florida alone has something like 250 delegates.

The deal with the Bernie supporters glancing over facts is really starting to grate my nerves.

[ahoysrcsm]

89. HE WON TWO!!! TWO!!! POPULAR VOTES!!!

Don't you know... popular vote in two out of 48 contests wins the nomination.

[Blue_true]

94. I like most of the Bernie supporters here on DU, but they can be difficult to take at times.

If Bernie doesn't win the nomination, I am going to do a long happy dance before getting behind the nominee 100%. If Bernie does win the nomination, I am going to swallow really hard, but do everything that I can to help him in November, I will vote for him but don't plan to torture myself by watching election returns.

[jaysunb]

35. And Trump will be reelected nt

[Codeine]

46. #bendtheknee

Christ, at this point I’m ready to go back to the old model of the party just choosing a fucking candidate.

[Gravitycollapse]

52. Ready to give up democratic institutions because you don't like who might win.

[Codeine]

73. No, because I don't like the effect

that it’s having on our party.

And candidate selection is hardly democratic. It’s party politics.

[ahoysrcsm]

90. Rules were changed...

Rules were changed so Sanders would not mention Automatic Delegates AKA Super Delegates were tipping the scales. Rules were changed so Sanders could claim a victory in Iowa after winning second place. Rules were changed so Nevada could stay a caucus system while allowing more participation.

[The Mouth]

51. I don't agree

but I think after Super Tuesday he might well be the inevitable nominee.

Here in California, nearly every highly involved, motivated (maybe even 'fanatical') Democrat I know is not only for him, but ready to pound the pavement and drive/drag friends and family to the polls.

All due respect to the other candidates, but only Obama and Trump are the candidates I've seen to inspire people to make their own signs and such.

Enthusiasm; you can't buy it, it's not 'due' you, it can't be requested or required by any power on earth (or at least in the United States). I like Pete, respect Liz and can't say much negative about Joe, but none of them begin to generate the 'vibes' that Bernie does, at least in my little bubble of Northern California. Maybe some of the people who utterly, desperately believe we *MUST* have a woman president and are die-hard for Liz have the same degree of 'hell or high water, no matter what, I'm voting for 'em' of the Berners

[Garrett78]

92. I also live in Northern CA and saw one of those homemade Bernie signs today.

[marble falls]

53. Seriously? He does good in two out of three primarys in three of the least populus states ...

and he's a shoo in??? I'll wait untill at least another 47 primaries happen first.

[JFlash]

59. Writing off the South is a very very bad idea

That's were there are the largest concentrations of Africian-Americans in the Democratic electorate. Mississippi is about 70% black in Democratic primaries.

I do hope that that strategy does not carry over into the Fall for Bernie. Even Hillary won Virgina, and contested North Carolina and Florida.

[Still Sensible]

71. I think the premise is bullshit. He very well may go on to win the

nomination, but just being ahead after the third (relatively small) state weighs in does not call for a coronation. If he wins all the states on super Tuesday, an argument could be made that he is getting closer to inevitable.

[sheshe2]

76. ...

[Moderateguy]

77. Bernie is not winning the nomination

Unless he can manage to get it on the 1st ballot. I think after super-Tuesday we will see a “Anyone but Bernie” vote concentrate on the leading candidate on the moderate side

[emmaverybo]

78. I am sure Sanders supporters will attempt to get DUers to accept their version of reality. But

here’s a pesky fact, voters in swing states believe Biden is the one to beat Trump. And Sanders is
getting some vetting, from Warren for one, who needs to cut him loose if she is to make a comeback, which given her debate performance is a strong possibility.

Gun control supporters will look at Sander’s record vs. Biden’s. New ad out. This is a compelling issue to the young too.

[awesomerwb1]

80. Cool story bro.

[Blue_true]

84. Are you kidding me?

The delegate count from Florida and Georgia inundate the delegate count from the first three states by a large margin. You claim is as irrational as it is bold.

[Demsrule86]

86. No, Nevada is not a big delegate state...after super Tuesday, there will be a winnowing and then

we shall see...Sanders has hit his ceiling IMHO.

[Garrett78]

91. If he wins both NV *and* SC, then it'll be tough to see him not winning the nomination.

A win in NV would increase his chances of winning SC, but I think we really need to see what happens in SC before we express anything close to certainty. If Sanders wins NV and SC and Biden drops out, I don't think Bloomberg can buy his way to the nomination. And none of the others have enough support among POC to have much of a chance.

[Blue_Tires]

95. Unlikely...