Swing State Poll: Trump Up In Wisconsin (Quinnipiac)

[brooklynite]

In three critical Rust Belt states that delivered a victory to President Trump in 2016 by narrow margins, President Trump leads in head to head matchups against the top Democratic candidates in Wisconsin, but loses or trails within the margin of error in Pennsylvania matchups, and is locked in close races in Michigan, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University Poll released today. This is the first swing state poll of the 2020 presidential election cycle from the Quinnipiac University Poll that includes separate polls conducted simultaneously in key swing states. The poll was conducted from February 12th - 18th, prior to the February 19th Democratic primary debate.

Among registered voters in Wisconsin, President Trump leads the Democratic candidates by between 7 and 11 percentage points in head to head election matchups:
Trump tops Senator Amy Klobuchar 50 - 39 percent;
Trump leads Senator Elizabeth Warren 51 - 41 percent;
Trump beats former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg 49 - 41 percent;
Trump tops former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 49 - 41 percent;
Trump defeats Senator Bernie Sanders 50 - 43 percent;
Trump is ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden 49 - 42 percent.

If we don't win back Pensylvania, Michigan AND Wisconsin, we lose.

[TwilightZone]

1. Trump's approval rating in WI (Marquette poll): 48%.

That and this poll are seriously depressing.

[FBaggins]

2. Not quite true that we need PA/MI/WI

WI definitely seems to have moved away from us. Trump won by less than a point in 2016 and these all reflect a significant shift in the wrong direction...

BUT... MI/PA (in the same poll) are more comfortably blue-ish... and these aren't the only three states in play. Either FL/NC would take WI out of the "must win" category.

[Squinch]

6. They're going to cheat. We need every one of these states.

[andym]

3. This correlates with Trump's increased favorability

in the national polls. Those favorability numbers need to go down about 5% points.

[JCMach1]

4. AZ, FL, TX, GA, NC all give us opportunities if WI, and OH is out of reach

[Awsi Dooger]

8. You are ignoring the ideological realities in those states

Arizona, Texas, North Carolina or Georgia will never come before Wisconsin. Those states all have upwards of 40% self-identified conservatives.

Florida is less conservative but with Bernie Sanders as nominee then Florida is not in play. Ohio dropped out of sight last time.

I think we are just waking up to the reality of facing an incumbent. You always have to assume 8 years and take anything else as a gift.

We needed a charismatic moderate. That's why I was hoping for Beto to be the real deal.

[tritsofme]

9. Elections don't happen in a vacuum. If Trump is winning Wisconsin, he would likely have bagged

those states too.

That being said, while Ohio may be out of reach, I think our candidate will ultimately win Wisconsin.

[JCMach1]

10. Exactly, thats the more likely outcome... we take WI by 1...

Trump takes TX by 2-5. I doubt either of those states reach a tipping-point this cycle. Same thing for GA and NC... Trump _2-5.

I do think AZ goes blue though.

[SDANation]

5. This could explain

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 32%
Democrat 26
Independent 35
Other/DK/NA 6

+/- 3.4 percentage pts, if Trump enjoys a 90% + approval rating among republicans, could really push the poll that direction.

Could be heavily weighted republicans or republican leaning

[Lucid Dreamer]

7. If Dems are even or slightly ahead in a poll they are behind.

trump supporters are less likely to admit to supporting him in polls.

Believing encouraging polls is a trap. I did that in 2016 and it didn't work.

That's when I became a realistic pessimist. Now I always hope I'm wrong.