Because of the 15% rule, the percentages from primary elections

[MineralMan]

won't accurately reflect the percentages of delegates allocated to candidates. Only the delegate count matters at the convention.

I've explained this several times in the past, but I'm going to have to explain it again.

In a primary election, candidates who get less than 15% of the vote in a district or state that awards delegates get zero delegates in that district or state. Delelegates are allocated proportionally only to candidates who receive 15% or more of the vote in any jurisdiction that allocates delegates.

In most states, the districts (congressional or other) assign most of the delegates. The state party organization allocates some lesser numbers, based on statewide primary results. In all cases, though candidates who get less than 15% of the vote in the allocating jurisdiction get no delegates at all. All delegates go to candidates with 15% or more of the vote.

Once delegates are allocated, and only then, can we see how candidates did in that primary election. Here's an example: Suppose that Bernie Sanders got 30% of the vote and Joe Biden got 20%. If none of the other candidates got 15% or more, the total delegate count would be divided proportionally between Sanders and Biden. Let's say a state had 100 delegates to allocated. In that state, Sanders would get 60 delegates and Biden would get 40. 60% to 40%. If some other candidate got 16%, then the allocations would change, proportionally. All of the other candidates, who got less than 15% of the votes, get zero delegates.

Each state also has some superdelegates. They are not pledge to any candidate and can vote as they please at the Convention. They are elected Democratic House reps and Senators from that state, the democratic governor, if any, and that state's members of the DNC (Democratic National Committee).

Watch the delegate count, not the voting percentages. That's the only thing that matters.

[rzemanfl]

1. Thanks for this post. n/t

[MineralMan]

2. I've added a couple more paragraphs, but no more additions will be made.

This is the most misunderstood part of our primary and convention system.

[rzemanfl]

3. We are all victimized by people like Kornacki who take our eye off the ball. n/t

[msongs]

4. the followers of some candidates are severely math challenged nt

[MineralMan]

7. Yes, indeed.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

14. Well, that's presumptuious

How about this? If it goes to convention and one person has more delegates than any other candidate and the first vote doesn't give us a nominee, then the raw vote count in the primaries actually should be considered since it's an indication of electability.

But, yeah, just assume people don't understand math if it makes you feel better.

[stopdiggin]

5. thanks for the post. the math is not that complicated

it's the rules (and they vary a little bit here and there) that give people problems. And, even there .. if you want to find out .. it's really not that difficult.

[MineralMan]

6. It's not that complicated, you're right.

There are some rounding issues when things don't come out even, but those are minor.

The best website I know of for primary information is:

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D

You can follow delegate counts there, read the rules for each state, and much, much more. It's the site the news media reporters use to get their information. Even Kornacki uses it, I suspect.

[madville]

8. Had the same back and forth with someone yesterday

They were insisting that it would be impossible for a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates with “only” 30% support. There are plenty of realistic scenarios if the field remains at its current size. I don’t think anyone on the debate stage is dropping out before Super Tuesday or maybe even 17MAR when Florida and a few others vote.

Right now Bernie and Biden are the best positioned to pick up big chunks of delegates in the next four weeks.

The common misconception is that their popular vote % is the same number used to allocate pledged delegates, many are gonna be quite surprised after Super Tuesday.

[MineralMan]

9. That's why I keep posting these 15% viability rule OPs.

I just know people are going to scream bloody murder when they find out that their 11% candidate gets no delegates, and post that "She/He was robbed."

I'm sure we'll be explaining it again and again.

[frazzled]

10. In our state, we vote both for a candidate and for up to 8 individual delegates

I've often wondered how that works. Most thinking people will chose the delegates connected to their preferred candidate's campaign. But there are weird (or not too bright) people out their who may select delegates other than the ones for their presidential choice. I know that sounds bizarre, but people can be pretty dense.

So how are the delegates awarded? According to the candidate's votes (over 15%), proportionally; or by the votes for individual delegates? There's a possibility that there could be a conflict between those two metrics. And if they're awarded by candidate vote only, why do we have to cast votes for individual delegates anyway? Is it just a legal thing? What if a delegate gets no votes?

Just pondering.

[MineralMan]

11. I've never voted in a state where you voted for delegates.

I don't know what states still do that. at this site: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D, if you click on links to the individual states, you can find a detailed description of how that state chooses delegates after the primary elections.

There are variations among the states, but the concept is always the same, and all use the 15% viability rule in one way or another.

Delegates are awarded proportionally, according to the vote counts, but nonviable candidates are not eligible. So, the proportions for viable candidates are normalized to a 100% total among them. That can cause rounding issues, which can alter delegate counts by one or two delegates in some cases.

It's fairly simple. If, after normalizing proportions to make up 100%, a candidate has a fractional percentage above .5%, that candidate gets the extra delegate and candidates under .5% in the calculations don't. So if you have two candidates and one has 49.6% and the other has 49.4%, the candidate with the .1% advantage is awarded 51 delegates and the other gets 49

When things like that happen, the losing candidate either cries in his beer or screams bloody murder. Neither action changes the result, however.

[frazzled]

12. It's still not clear

according to that site:

National Convention District level delegates appear on the primary ballot. Delegate candidates must file nominating petitions, a Statement of Candidacy, and a Presidential Preference form with Illinois State Board of Elections. Presidential candidates are given the opportunity to remove any of their delegate candidates prior to date the Illinois State Board of Elections certifies the Primary ballot. The Delegates are selected from the highest vote-getters.

So which highest vote-getters? The candidates or the delegates?

I assume it must be the candidates, and that the delegates are there simply for official, legal purposes. I had to appear on a ballot once, along with my spouse, as delegates to the Massachusetts State Democratic convention. Not something I had pursued: we got hornswaggled into appearing on the ballot as delegates by our Town Democratic Committee. It was kind of pro forma: there were X number of delegates and the same X to choose from.

But what if people just don't vote for the delegates? Are they still legal? People skip voting for all kinds of down-ballot offices, especially where I live. On the current primary ballot there are 10 candidates for Water Reclamation District (pick 3); 17 competitive races for judicial vacancies, a host of county and state office races, etc. It's always a long slog, and most people don't bother with these, especially the judicial races.

[MineralMan]

13. In states where people don't elect delegates directly, which is most states,

national delegates are elected at district or state conventions, by delegates elected at either the precinct level or some other lower level. For example, when Minnesota used the caucus system, delegates to the state senate district convention were elected at the precinct causues. Then, at the state senate district convention, delegates were elected to the congressional district convention, where state convention delegates were elected. At each stage, proportionality for candidates was maintained. Delegates at each stage are firmly pledged to candidates.

It's complicated, but it works. In Minnesota, now, delegates will be elected at the congressional district convention,and statewide delegates will be elected at the state convenion. Again proportionality from the lower level will be preserved in those elections, and delegates will be pledged to specific candidate.

All of those things can be hard to understand unless you're in there at those lower-level conventions. The rules and how things are carried out vary from state to state. Some states use congressional districts. Others use state legislative districts. It depends on how many delegates to the national convention need to be allocated, and that varies based on how the state voted in the last presidential election.

Confusing? Yes, it is, especially in a state that's unfamiliar to you. It's confusing in your own state, unless you're involved in the allocation process.

What's important is that the proportionality, based on actual individual voter's votes, is preserved. The 15% viability rule, however, applies at all levels.

[frazzled]

15. Yes, I know. I lived in Minnesota for 15 years

I've also lived in New York State, Massachusetts, Indiana, and Illinois. Each state runs things differently. And yes, I'm aware that the 15% threshold exists.