Breaking: New Florida head to head matchups

[democrattotheend]

Sanders 48, Trump 48
Trump 49, Buttigieg 45
Biden 49, Trump 48
Bloomberg 50, Trump 44
Trump 47, Warren 47
Trump 48, Klobuchar 44

UNF poll of live voters, methodology seems decent except that they weight on party registration. According to another article I read this morning, this could make the poll a little bit more favorable for Democrats, which I don't like.

https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/Feb20.2020.pdf

I'm not too surprised that Bloomberg is doing better than the others in Florida, given the large influx of New Yorkers there. I am surprised that Bernie isn't doing worse, since Florida is the state I think the socialist label will hurt him the most because of the large Cuban population. I'm a little surprised Biden isn't doing a bit better there.

In these head to head match-ups, I think the most important thing is not the Democrat's number but Trump's number, because Democrats that are less well-known nationally are going to have lower numbers because more people will be undecided until they get to know them. By that metric, it seems Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are doing better than Sanders, Warren and Biden, which is interesting.

[Laelth]

1. Oh, my. That is a significant change.

For a long time, Biden led all Democrats in head-to-head match-ups against the Great Pumpkin. This is different. According to this poll, Bloomberg will clobber Trump.

Interesting. Thanks for posting.

-Laelth

[jimfields33]

9. I want to see a post debate poll in a few days

[Laelth]

11. I also would be curious to see that poll. n/t

-Laelth

[tiredtoo]

2. Sad to say, the Florida folks watch too much tv.

Bloomberg ads.

[Laelth]

3. We live in a capitalist society.

Television spots wouldn't cost as much as they do if they didn't work.



-Laelth

[tiredtoo]

5. No argument from me.

Other than i think it's a shame when people make decisions as important as this based on a tv ad.

[Laelth]

7. I hear you.

But part of me is simply pleased that people are paying attention at all.

-Laelth

[Squinch]

4. Hmmmmm....

Interesting...

[evertonfc]

6. this is before Trump spends 700 million attacking.

Given Trump has been impeached and all the other shit he has done, the fact that he is even is good news for Trump.

[FloridaBlues]

8. Trump is going to be hard to beat here. Just saying.

[Celerity]

14. IF we lose both FL & WI, there's almost no favourable path to beating Trump, & WI's looking shaky AF

I explain

IF we lose WI and FL, we can WIN PA, MI, MN, VA, NV, NM, CO, NH and all the truly Blue states and still lose 270-268

IF we lose FL and WI, the odds are very very high that IA stays red as well, leaving only AZ and NC as remotely possible pickups and Trump is polling strong in both. OH and IN, if WI and IA are red, will be even redder. Also, if we lose WI and IA, PA and MI are also back in somewhat play for him as well more than likely.

The map looks like this



The other possibility is the ultimate nightmarish way for Trump to win, one that will rip the country apart.

If you look at that map above, you will see I gave Trump ME-2, which he won last time. Let's say we flip it back to Blue (a far more likely possibility than flipping AZ or NC or IA IF we lose FL and WI)

that yield this



269-269

Trump wins via the House electing him, even if we control the House. The process is that each state gets one vote and 26 are needed to elect a president. The Rethugs control exactly 26 House delegations, and the only two remotely close chances to knock it down to 25 are, ding ding ding... WI and FL (you can't make this shite up!!!), but due to gerrymandering and voter suppression, the odds of us flipping either are extremely poor. Also, we could flip one, but the Rethugs could gain the one tie state, PA, and that gets them back to 26. We have no shot at 26 ourselves, and could even lose some states that we control now with 1 seat margins, like CO, MI, and AZ or even other states we control as of now with more than a one seat margin.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fa6iq7MN40HIvob9li5z545pJhd1tQVgZ7GSn0kikLc/edit#gid=0


A 269-269 tie and Trump getting exactly 26 votes to win the POTUS in the House, which is the absolute bare minimum, and his getting them due to Rethug gerrymandering and voter suppression will cause riots I fear, especially if he gets crushed in the popular vote AND we hold the actual majority of House seats like we do now.

[Blue_true]

16. I live in Florida and I disagree.

A lot of Blacks sat out the 2016 General. I don't see that happening now, registration among new Black voters seem good, from coincidental analysis.

Second, some former felons can vote not. For the crimes that covered, Blacks were disproportionally impacted, that is why republicans are trying to neuter the voter approved measure.

Third, a buttload of Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida. They are US citizens and immediately get to vote once they get registered in the state of Florida. Trump has done everything but shit on them and their territory.

Now, things can change, if the economy holds up, Trump may win, anything short of that, he likely loses Florida.

[JFlash]

10. Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida will never vote for Bernie

nt

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Ignore this at our peril

Bloomberg holds Trump to 44 while Trump is at 47+ against everyone else.

Granted it's one poll in one state but it is evidence that preference dictates outcomes. You will never overcome a preference gap with fruit loop theories about turnout.

Bloomberg can spend and he has loads of teflon.

The garbage is believing that Bloomberg's money will have equal benefit to a different nominee. That's the Happy Adjuster mentality...making the world whatever you want it to be. Bloomberg's money is wasted on the presidential level if the nominee is not Mike Bloomberg. Trump's approval continues to tick upward. The public has already absorbed Trump's personality and style of governing. Unless it's direct one-on-one comparison the negativity is absorbed like cannon balls into a coquina fort.

[honest.abe]

15. This is good example of why many Dems are willing to ignore Bloomberg's issues.

If we take Florida it’s pretty much over.