'None one' (42%) surges to the lead in 538 forecast

[denem]

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?

Each Candidate's Chances of Winning a Majority of Pledged Delegates





https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Yeah, well 538 had a few problems in 2016

"No one" is winning? Could they come up with a term that expresses no front runner with enough votes to win that doesn't make them sound like nobody likes them?

Sanders thinks he can make it an early night, Bloomberg thrives on a brokered convention. Biden because he's a former VP with experience is the elder statesman in the room.

[denem]

2. 538's problems in 2016 were?

[bucolic_frolic]

3. They thought HRC would win

[Recursion]

4. They were the only mainstream site saying a Trump win was a realistic chance

They gave him 1 chance in 3, and said if he won it would likely be with a popular vote loss.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Why do people worship 538?

He's not the only stats guy around. And sorry, 1 in 3 was not a good enough prediction.

[Amishman]

8. Because statistical modeling is really hard, and they are one of the best

It's like being the most accurate meteorologist, best at what they do but still wrong on a regular basis.

Getting right or close as often as 538 does is really impressive

[Recursion]

9. It was an accurate prediction

"Trump won in an unlikely manner" is a perfectly good description of the outcome

[MrsCoffee]

17. If you call that a perfectly good description of treason.

[denem]

11. HRC did win the popular vote.

538 gave trump a 29% chance of winning
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

which was met with scepticism

Is Nate Silver right?
Most polling models show Hillary Clinton winning easily. Why is 538 more cautious?

HuffPost Pollster and the Princeton Election Consortium, which each show Clinton’s chances close to 100 percent, and Daily Kos Elections’ model gives Clinton a 91 percent chance of winning.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/is-nate-silver-538-right-230734

[MrsCoffee]

16. She did.

I don’t think they were aware of the treason that was going to keep her from office.

[inwiththenew]

14. Take a look

[Recursion]

5. Not really

They called the popular vote almost exactly, and said that Trump had about a 1 in 3 chance of winning the electoral college despite losing the popular vote.

[bucolic_frolic]

7. They gave Trump more credibility than he deserved

and this from what I remember 6-8 weeks out. That's my problem with 538. Big Fish influencing opinion instead of the other way around.

[Recursion]

10. Huh?

That doesn't even make sense. They aggregate how people tell pollsters they will vote.

[cherryinpa]

13. Odd

I think he's saying that 538 aggregating the statistics had some sort of causative effect on those same statistics. Seems odd, but then again physicists have proven in the double-slit experiment that an electron changes its behaviour when it knows it's being watched. So who knows whats going on here.

[moose65]

12. All I can think of when I see this....

.... is Arya Stark from Game of Thrones. "A girl must become no one."

[CalFione]

15. Good

the Superdelegates will be the “break glass in case of emergency” failsafe that will allow Democrats to save ourselves from ourselves.