Bloomberg needs to be finished off in Tuesday's debate

[CalFione]

Bloomberg collapsing in the polls would rejuvenate Biden in SC and most Super Tuesday states.

Pete and Amy, sad to say, will probably be done after SC.

Warren is gaining momentum in CA and looks good in several Super Tuesday states.


The best outcome would be a complete muddle in the delegate race after Super Tuesday. This would allow for the narrative of Bernie stalling to gain traction and make a brokered convention a near certainty.

Get the race down to Bernie, Liz, and Joe... and a weakened Bloomberg spending his money going after Bernie... and we can end up with Joe and Liz combining delegates at the convention to take them over the top as a unity ticket.

[comradebillyboy]

1. Debates really don't seem to matter very much. I am seeing lots of

Bloomberg ad here in NM even though our primary isn't til June. His TV ads are really good.

[OnlinePoker]

7. Too bad he isn't. n/t

[denem]

11. "Debates really don't seem to matter very much"

Yeah. Amy got nothing out of NH.

[jmg257]

15. Right? And Liz gained nothing by her incredible job on Wednesday.

Totally UNerased, big donor surge, lots of coverage...well, everywhere, but debates dont matter much.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. I don't think getting his ass handed to him in a debate will stop him.

He's still got a ton of money for advertising (and his ads are quite good), which reaches a lot more people. I don't want him to be the nominee, but if I had to choose, I'd reluctantly pick him over Bernie because even though he's a dick he isn't actively trying to destroy the Democratic Party.

[CalFione]

3. it doesn't have to stop him....

it just has to collapse his poll numbers for Super Tuesday so he doesn’t reach 15% anywhere and Joe does.

get his numbers down under 10%, but have him stay in the race beating down both Trump and Bernie with ad buys.

[msongs]

4. uh its gonna be the entire democratic party establishment ganging up on poor bernie nt

[still_one]

5. nope, Pete and Amy will not be done after SC, they both will finish through at least Super Tuesday

While I think Joe and Elizabeth would be a great combination, I can also think of a lot of good combinations that would be great

[denem]

12. Amy didn't even have an office in CA a week ago.

Not sure about the situation now.

[still_one]

13. since everything is so compressed between Nevada, SC, and Super Tuesday, even if they do

no more campaigning, they have nothing to lose just staying in the race to see what happens

Don’t misunderstand me, i think it would be good if some candidates dropped out and consolidated behind one candidate, to reduce the field, because their chances are very low, I just don’t see it happening. Obviously, I wouldn’t mind that happening and getting behind Biden before Super Tuesday, since according to poll numbers out of the Amy, Pete, and Biden block, his Super Tuesday odds look better, but Bloomberg and open primaries have messed things up badly

Perhaps after SC, if they see no path based on the polls, and for the good of the party, however, because of Bloomberg it is looking more likely that no candidate will have sufficient delegates going into the convention on the first ballot, which means anything can happen

[denem]

14. "which means anything can happen" - what won't happen is berners jumping for joy

See my analysis here.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=557930

[still_one]

16. I agree with your assessment

[radius777]

6. Whoever wins the pledged delegates will win

the nomination, as it would be seen as theft if given to someone else on the second ballot.

Funny how Sanders' position on this is the exact opposite as it was in 2016.

Only way to stop Sanders, which seems unlikely at this point, is for the moderate lane Dems to choose a horse and ride it. Warren and Sanders could split the left if she surges, and the moderate lane Dem could coast to big delegate hauls.

[UniteFightBack]

8. There will be people dropping out...the money is drying up. nt

[radius777]

9. But will they drop out soon enough

is the question.

The frontloading the the primary schedule actually helps Bernie at this point.

Warren needs to stay viable long enough, otherwise Bernie will start getting to 40%. And if the moderate lane is still divided, game over.

[madville]

17. Warren has been slowly tacking to the middle

I think some of Bernie’s gains have been from Warren’s more left leaning supporters but at the same time she has made some gains with moderates so it was kind of a wash. Her stating she’s a capitalist in the debate is evidence of this.

[EveHammond13]

10. I'd say Bernie should drop out.