Of note: Supporters of unviable MODERATES are switching to Sanders as their viable choice.

[thesquanderer]

I know, it's early, we'll see what the final alignments look like.

But so many people here seem to assume that if a moderate dropped out, those votes would overwhelmingly go to another moderate. But in Nevada, the tallies so far show that, after the first alignment where a number of moderates are not viable, it is Sanders who is by far the greatest beneficiary of where their supporters go when they can no longer support their first choice (at least so far).

[elleng]

1. Interesting.

Is this based on 'good' information?

[thesquanderer]

11. Just from what you can see on the TV.

They show what the tallies are for the first vote; and they show how much each candidate goes up or down from the first to the second. The downs are primarily because there were precincts where those candidates were not viable; the ups indicate where those candidates' supporters went. Sanders tally from 1st to 2nd tally has gone up WAY more than by the amount Warren went down, so all the rest of the support had to come from candidates other than Warren.

[elleng]

16. Thanks,

not watching, now listening; will watch soon.

[thesquanderer]

19. Things have moved since then...

At the moment, Sanders has picked up 110 votes between 1st and 2nd tallies, Warren has lost 187, so the numbers I used at the start are no longer accurate. But as I said, I know it's early, and the numbers will change throughout the night. But it was interesting, even for that period of time, that there was a point where Sanders clearly had to have picked up a bunch of supporters from unviable moderate candidates.

[elleng]

21. Thanks.

About to move into tv room, to WATCH!

[thesquanderer]

23. Updated figures, with 50% in...

1st alignment-->2nd alignment

Sanders up by 3,065
Warren down by 794

People who didn't select anyone for 2nd alignment: 1,140

So at least at the 50% point, we see a lot of people who had supported a moderate switching to Sanders when their first choice was unviable.

[elleng]

24. Thanks for this run down; didn't follow details.

[David__77]

2. The left/right stuff is overblown, in my opinion.

...

[Democrats Ascendant]

6. Totally right!

We've heard over and over again from people being interviewed that voters like different combinations of very different candidates. There really isn't a moderate vs a progressive lane.

[Sherman A1]

3. That is certainly an interesting development

Thanks for posting.

[katmondoo]

4. TV off. It bothers me to watch the early results.

[Fresh_Start]

5. most are choosing to leave not realign

5,503 first alignment votes, 4,754 final alignment votes, 3% reporting

most voters aren't compromising their choices...

[thesquanderer]

17. So they'd rather go home than switch to another moderate...

... but that still benefits Sanders. If they really don't want him, they should at least switch to ANYONE who isn't him.

But anyway, when I first started the thread, the switch-to-Sanders was bigger than the go-home... but that's what happens when you're discussing something while the numbers are changing.

[thesquanderer]

22. Explanation: No, they weren't leaving. It was probably all the Early Voters.

If they didn't list a (different) second choice, and their first choice was not viable on the first ballot. then they were omitted from the second.

As the numbers have continued to update, as I said originally, Bernie's increase has been far greater than Warren's decrease (and far greater than those who had no voice in the second ballot), so again, it had to be many moderates who did not get their first choice switching to Sanders for their second.

[jmg257]

7. Very interesting. That would have a big impact as everyone thinks Bernie will do worse

when the field shrinks.

[Jersey Devil]

8. With caucuses organization is a very important factor

There is no doubt Bernie is better organized for a caucus than anyone else. You need fast and convincing help to get people to switch over from candidates who are not viable. I give him credit for that, but I wonder how much a caucus really means if the results depend on who has the smoothest talkers at the polls.

[ChubbyStar]

15. Shit howdy Bernie has the smoothest talkers?

Why don't the other candidates?

[Cal Carpenter]

9. Yep, the national polls that ask a "second choice" question have looked good for Bernie

ranging from 20% to 40% depending on who the 1st choice was. I've been skeptical of those results but it looks like it may be playing out that way.

I think you are right about the assumptions. I haven't seen the harsh divide of left vs moderate framing anywhere but DU and my rare foray into cable news. Most of the rank-and-file Dems aren't seeing it this way, in my experience. Looks like the results are reflecting that.

I'm glad.

I do wish Warren were getting higher numbers today. She is, by far, my personal second choice. And depending on how things look when it is my primary, I might very well choose her.

[EarlG]

10. I was saying this just the other day

The idea that there is a "moderate lane" and a "liberal lane" and there will be absolutely no crossover between the two... that if all but one "moderate" candidate drops out then all the "moderate" support will go to that candidate... I don't think I buy it. Seems like one of those media-driven "conventional wisdom" things that doesn't actually apply in the real world.

[Laelth]

12. Interesting. Thank you for the insight. n/t

-Laelth

[Garrett78]

13. DU is the land of false assumptions.

[Sloumeau]

14. You wrote the following:

But so many people here seem to assume that if a moderate dropped out, those votes would overwhelmingly go to another moderate.

I do not recall seeing people writing this. Can you recall when you saw this?

[thesquanderer]

18. e.g. there have been numerous threads saying that people need to drop out so that...

...voters can consolidate around a single moderate alternative to Sanders. Sorry, don't have the time to search for threads at the moment.

[Garrett78]

20. It's a constant theme around here. Constant.

That's why there are the hundreds (probably thousands) of posts about how all but 1 "moderate" should drop out and back the remaining "moderate," and that Sanders's support is capped at 25-30%, blah, blah, blah.