QUESTION: Do you think Sanders has Obama's Appeal In Swing States?

[uponit7771]

I ask this because based on 2008 around Feb Obama was either underwater or within MOE in swing states save one or two ... pretty much where Sanders is at right now.

RCP Swing States 2008, Look at Obama Feb numbers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/battleground_cheat_sheet.html#co

My argument against Sanders right now is his swing state numbers look similar to Obamas and are not beating Biden's but Obama even had perfect teeth ... every leader on planet Earth understood Obama was a cut above the rest. Also dem politico and base would walk over shards of glass dragging their children and their children's children with them to vote for Obama.

So the question I have is - Do you think Sanders has any where near Obama's appeal to the dem base and middle ground swing state voters?

I don't think so, the dem base and politico will at best mostly be voting against X if Sanders is the nominee. There aren't enough revolutionary new voters showing up now to vote for him in the primaries I don't know why they'd show in the general to replace the hoards of Boomers that will be running for the hills at the term [fill in blank] socialist and I'll raise your taxes by "we'll find out later on".

What say you?

thx in advance for your input

[krissey]

1. There is zero Obama appeal anywhere in Sanders. Anywhere.

[jcmaine72]

14. You can say that about all the candidates.

[Cha]

2. No. & BS has never been vetted by the gop.. yet.

[musette_sf]

34. +1

[Demsrule86]

3. No. We lose the rustbelt.

[onetexan]

7. +1 -K&R

[masmdu]

4. Yes.

Yes, I do.

[uponit7771]

5. Sanders appeals to whom mostly, Obama's swing state voters? Maybe I should put that in the OP

[ibegurpard]

6. Yes

Obama campaigned as a change candidate. So is Sanders. Obama was more aspirational however while Sanders is more grievance-based. I'm not sure an aspirational candidate can win right now with the level of cynicism and distrust in our institutions across the board. If anyone thinks a grievance-based candidate can't win they only need to look at what currently occupies the White House. And the center-left to left leaning populace is justified in a LOT of their grievances... starting with the breathtaking repuke abuse of power over the past 4 years.

[uponit7771]

8. Benedict Donald literally got help from the Russians who backed 3rd party candidates that over ...

... performed by 300% in ... ALL... the "swing states" that were governed by republicans.

That's an introduction of too much noise to have Red Don's candidacy be any kind of example of good policy ...

Do we have any other time a grievance candidate like Red Don won against and aspiration or moderate candidate?

thx in advance

[KPN]

9. It wasn't about good policy. It was about grievance, no?

Even in the swing States.

[tman]

29. I'm a Sanders skeptic but you raise good points.

I think he'll have some decent appeal to the 'white working class' but his strength with minority voters will be a challenge, as he'll need them to come out big like they did in 08 and 12. If the youth vote actually come out big, Sanders might just do it.

Also, his VP pick will be the most scrutinized in election history, for obvious (health related) reasons.

[KPN]

10. Obama's appeal in swing States? If you are asking can Sanders win in swing States,

yes, if we are united. Maybe not exactly Obama’s traits that made him appealing, but can Sanders win? I think so. If we get out and vote ourselves we’ll do as well as HRC did and gain additional votes from those who voted for “change” and not necessarily the candidate (tRump and Stein).

[Demsrule86]

13. We will not win the rustbelt.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

12. No, but neither do any of the other Democrats running this time.

Sanders and Warren are the only candidates who excite me enough to knock on doors for them (for free).

I voted for Hillary Clinton, but I wasn't excited by her. If not for Trump running against her, I might've not bothered to vote at all in 2016.

New York Times article from 2015:
Americans’ Views on Money in Politics

In a rare show of unity, Americans, regardless of their political affiliation, agree that money has too much influence on elections, the wealthy have more influence on elections, and candidates who win office promote policies that help their donors.

[TexasTowelie]

15. No.

[mucifer]

16. For Wisconsin I would say yes

[Recursion]

17. Some of them. PA, MI, OH maybe. But he won't make any inroads in the South

I think as far as that goes, his argument is more or less sound: he carries that states Clinton won in 2016, plus two of the three above, which is enough. What worries me is what happens downballot to our candidates in the South.

[LovingA2andMI]

19. Michigan would be lost too.

S.E.Michigan has a good sized unionized workforce that don't want their health care taken away for Medicare for All. And they vote.

[Tom Rinaldo]

21. Like Nevada's Union voters?

Union voters indicated otherwise. They are worried about their kids and neighbors also, and about what would happen to them if they lost their job, and the healthcare it provides, for any reason.

Entrance polls showed that Nevada voters overwhelmingly favored Medicare For All. It was even more popular than Sanders.

Sanders polls well in Michigan now, and he did very well there in 2016.

[LovingA2andMI]

22. And you are basing that off of a Caucus?

In a small state where most of the population live in three towns (Reno, Carson City and Las Vegas) and the unionized workforce is not nowhere near as diverse as in Michigan (Manufacturing, Government, Service) and some of that unionized population voted for Trump in this same state the last time that was decided by 10,700 Votes. Plus "Democratic Socialist" Sanders is talking loudly about taking away their health care they have fought long and hard to keep.

Okay....as a Michigander, we know what will happen and Sanders winning Michigan in a General Election, ain't it.

[TwilightZone]

28. Nevada and Michigan are nothing alike.

We frequently make the mistake of believing that one size fits all and habitually fail to understand that every state is a unique place with unique demographics and unique challenges. To that, we've apparently added "all union members think alike".

"Sanders polls well in Michigan now, and he did very well there in 2016."

Doing well in a state's primary has little to do with performance in a general election. Trump steamrolled his competition in NY in 2016. Did he win it in the GE?

[Callado119]

32. A democratic caucus has nothing to do with a general election..

..where more than just democrats vote...BS will lose all swing states including NV..there’s a reason republicans and Russians desperately want to run against him

[Alliepoo]

23. Bs isn't gonna win Ohio.

[uponit7771]

25. +1,

[LovingA2andMI]

18. Nope....

Sanders will lose Michigan. It is not 2016 here and none of the Unionized force in S.E. Michigan wants their health care taken away for Medicare of All. Those are the facts.

[cwydro]

20. Nope.

[KayF]

24. Obama will be campaigning for Sanders in those swing states

Sanders will benefit from Obama's appeal there.

[AJT]

26. I'm in WI, outside of the urban areas Sanders has almost no support.

[wisteria]

27. No

[peggysue2]

30. Quick answer

Emphatically, NO!

[emmaverybo]

31. No. In those states, Biden is still favored ahead of Bernie and the rest, to win in a match-up with

Trump. It makes sense that those state’s voters will be leery of Bernie’s economic revolution. However, given media hype, and the fact that the opposition will keep its powder dry, he could win some primaries there, only to lose in the GE when oppo research is released.

Do not underestimate Russia and the GOP’s influence on our primaries. Trump dumped Spanish language Biden-bashing ads in Nevada. When GOP runs ads in the GE about Bernie’s past stances on immigrants, his popularity with Latinx population might evaporate. Right now many believe his campaign and the GE are behind the effort to cast the Obama administration as engineers of unjust, mass immigration.

This portrayal ignores 1) legal deportations for crimes 2) The comprehensive immigration reform
act Obama admin proposed to give 11 million amnesty and a pathway to citizenship plus DACA.

But one example of how the GOP will spread disinformation, which will morph into an attack on Bernie’s credibility with diverse communities once he is the nominee. And we will see Russia help Bernie now, but seriously undermine him if he wins the nomination.

I am not saying such influence could not be overcome by GOTV and strong Democratic Party endorsements and campaigning. But why should we gamble given Bernie’s liabilities, including his health? It appears we won’t see potential weaknesses in Bernie’s candidacy to get a clear picture of his chances in the GE until it might be too late. This too could be by design.

[highplainsdem]

33. No.