Bernie (and Warren) could use the 2008 crash against Trump

[KayF]

Last edited Sun Feb 23, 2020, 09:50 AM - Edit history (1)

people are talking about what Trump could use against Bernie, but what about the very powerful argument that Bernie could and would make, that other candidates won't or can't make nearly as well (except for Warren).

The crash was a crime and they got away with it. No one went to jail and no one paid a political price. Except arguably Hillary in 2016. and McCain in 2008

Bernie could say, remember you used to have a house? You didn't just lose it, someone stole it from you. Someone like Steve Mnuchin stole it from you.

Remember when everyone was losing their homes? A tragedy right? Well not for everyone, remember Trump said:

https://www.cnn.com/2016/05/19/politics/donald-trump-2006-hopes-real-estate-market-crashes/index.html
Two years before the housing market collapsed in 2008 and millions of Americans lost their homes, Donald Trump said he was hoping for a crash.

"I sort of hope that happens because then people like me would go in and buy," Trump said in a 2006 audiobook from Trump University, answering a question about "gloomy predictions that the real estate market is heading for a spectacular crash."

There's audio of this, Bernie could make it into an ad. Maybe ask, what about now? Is he still hoping for a crash?


To be fair, the first reference I found to this Trump quote was in fact Hillary brought it up in a debate, but it certainly wasn't the center of her campaign,

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-housing-collapse-228708

“In fact, Donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis,” Hillary Clinton said when discussing the recovery from the Great Recession. “He said back in 2006, ‘Gee, I hope it does collapse because then I can go in and buy some and make some money. Well it did collapse.”

“That’s called business, by the way,” Trump said, interrupting. But Clinton talked over him.

“Nine million people lost their jobs, five million people lost their homes,” she said.

Clinton appeared to be referencing when Trump, in 2006, said regarding a crash: “I sort of hope that happens because then people like me would go in and buy.”

[FBaggins]

1. I doubt it

How is it different from Warren Buffett? He too salivates at crashes because it allows him to buy things on sale.

He reportedly has tens of billions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next market crash... that doesn’t mean that we blame him when it happens and he takes advantage of it.

[zackymilly]

2. Yep, the super rich make money whether the market is up or down. n/t

[thesquanderer]

5. How is it different you ask? Warren Buffet isn't running for president. n/t

[FBaggins]

15. Except he's already run for president

This quote is from 2006... and Hillary did bring it up a decade later. But don’t see how it resonates with anyone at this point.

It isn’t as though there aren’t plenty of things to focus on that he’s said or done since the 2016 election.

[LovingA2andMI]

3. Nope....

The Economic Crash was Bush crash and not Trump's. That would not work what-so-ever.

[still_one]

4. +++

[thesquanderer]

6. It's not blame, it's about empathy and values, who they care about & fight for (nt)

[LovingA2andMI]

7. Okay???

But the facts are what they are. The Economic Crash of 2008-2013 was a President George H.W. Bush crash and President Barack Obama cleaned up and Trump has been riding on since he was placed in office with Russian assistance.

In the end, Americans vote with their pocketbooks and a majority of Americans will never vote for a Socialist, even a "Democratic Socialist." Those are the facts.

[thesquanderer]

9. Not relevant to my post. But I agree with your first point, not your second...

...which are decidedly not "facts" but rather an opinion. You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but you can't call it a fact.

[LovingA2andMI]

10. It's a Fact....

It's equally obvious that facts to some are extremely hard to comprehend. So sad.

[thesquanderer]

12. Some people don't understand the difference between facts and opinions, but...

...as long as ANY legitimate poll or analysis shows Sanders with ANY chance of winning the presidency, then the statement that most won't vote for him, by definition, is not a fact, and can only be an opinion. If it were a fact, every poll and analysis that *uses* facts would HAVE to conclude that his chance of winning is zero.

[LovingA2andMI]

13. Here we go...

Fact: a thing that is known or proved to be true.

Opinion: a view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.

Fact: In 2016, way too many voters in Michigan voted for Jill Stein or Gary Johnston (but most voted for Jill Stein in this case). These were primarily disaffected Bernie Sanders primary voters.

Fact: Michigan was decided to Trump by 10,700 Votes.

Fact: Some Unionized Members Voted for Trump in Michigan in 2016.

Fact: Bernie Sanders the "Democratic Socialist" is says he will end Private Health Care Plans. This includes the Private Health Care Plans of Unionized Workers who have fought negotiated for their Cadillac Style Health Care Plans.

Opinion: With all of the facts above, in a GENERAL ELECTION, the "Democratic Socialist" named Bernie Sanders will NOT win Michigan and COULD cost our U.S. Senator Gary Peters (one of the only Senators to WIN OR RETAIN his SEAT in 2014) his seat -- which could be a Republican pick up as a result.

The End: We know our state. Thank you for your OPINIONS -- which are wrong and non-factually based.

[thesquanderer]

14. Facts about Sanders and Michigan

See: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_sanders-6768.html

Of course those polls don't PROVE what will happen. But anyone who says, without empirical proof, that every single poll EVER done on this is DEFINITELY wrong is offering an opinion, not a fact.

BTW, an awful lot of folks with those "Cadillac Style Health Care Plans" voted for Sanders last night. Maybe because a Cadillac that can be taken away from you at any time (or interferes with your ability to move away or take a new job or retire early) isn't necessarily better than a different colored Cadillac--or even a Buick--that is yours to keep no matter what. But that's a whole other conversation. The point is, lots of these folks voted for Sanders too, and that's a fact.

[LovingA2andMI]

16. Umm....

24,177 of Nevada up to this point with 60% of the Caucus vote counted, voted last night. Nevada total VOTING population? 671,500.

So, do you think all Unionized workers in Nevada voted in the Caucus? All of them? What about half of them? Maybe more like 10% of them, if that.

So, again --- the vote of up to this point, 24,177 people in Nevada does not speak for the Unionized vote of a Nation and does not in no way whatsoever, speak for Michigan.

With that, find something to do today. As someone not from Michigan telling lifelong Michiganders what Michiganders are going to do, is flat out...

[thesquanderer]

17. As I said, that's a whole other conversation and wasn't the point, but no...

...of course I wasn't saying that meant that all union members would make the same decision. It was just to illustrate that you can't assume a good number of them won't make that decision, either. It will be a while longer before we have a better handle on what percentage of the culinary union members voted, and how many voted for Sanders. (The population to look at is the population of those union members, not the entire voting population of the state, who don't all have those cadillac plans.)

But back to the main point, as for the opinions of "someone not from Michigan" -- those polls were all polls of people FROM MICHIGAN.

[LovingA2andMI]

19. As I said....

Um Huh....

[thesquanderer]

20. Coincidentally, this just posted...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287566621

New poll suggests Bernie Sanders building lead in Michigan

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/23/bernie-sanders-michigan-primary-poll/4841992002/

Bernie is +7 against Trump in Michigan.

As they say, facts are stubborn things.

[LovingA2andMI]

22. Yes, they are....

Have you ever taken a statistics class?

"The poll of 662 Michiganders, which was conducted Feb. 11-20, had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points."

"The idea behind confidence levels and margins of error is that any survey or poll will differ from the true population by a certain amount. However, confidence intervals and margins of error reflect the fact that there is room for error, so although 95% or 98% confidence with a 2 percent Margin of Error might sound like a very good statistic, room for error is built in, which means sometimes statistics are wrong. For example, a Gallup poll in 2012 (incorrectly) stated that Romney would win the 2012 election with Romney at 49% and Obama at 48%. The stated confidence level was 95% with a margin of error of +/- 2, which means that the results were calculated to be accurate to within 2 percentages points 95% of the time.

The real results from the election were: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, which was actually even outside the range of the Gallup poll’s margin of error (2 percent), showing that not only can statistics be wrong, but polls can be too."

https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/

And a 5% Margin of Error is basically a BS poll.

Go out and enjoy the sun. You need it.

[thesquanderer]

23. re: "And a 5% Margin of Error is basically a BS poll."

1. There is no correlation between margin of error and poll quality (i.e. the likelihood that the true result does fall within whatever MoE is specified).

2. MoE does not mean that all possibilities within the MoE are equally likely. They are bell curved. Results near the specified numbers are more likely than results that are further away. If Sanders is 7 points ahead of Trump in a poll with MoE of 7, sure, there are still plenty of results consistent within that MoE where Trump can win, but it remains more likely that the actual result will favor Sanders than Trump.

3. Now put that in context of all those other 9 polls that I linked to, where Trump did not lead in a single one, and Sanders leads by anywhere form 4 to 14. Yes, MoE means these numbers are not all accurate... but odds that ALL of them are off SUBSTANTIALLY and all in the SAME directions start to get vanishingly small. The more polls that support the same results, the more likely the information is correct.

I'm not saying Sanders definitely wins Michigan. I'm just saying it makes no sense to say it's a fact that he won't, when not only can no one predict the future, but the best tools we have (polls) are 100% consistent in showing the odds favor the opposite.

But I can't say any more than that about it, and if you don't buy it, fine, we can agree to disagree. There's nothing to be gained here by further discussion, and the personal insults are tiresome.

[blm]

11. Are you serious? Warren is the only one who could. She's the expert who was

consulted who defined what happened and created and designed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Before she became a senator.

This is what pisses me off - I see it all the time online and hear it from Bernie supporters. Warren and other academics had performed DECADES of painstaking research on the economic issues that were keeping working families in debt. She has written papers and books on the various subjects surrounding those issues. Politicians referenced that work. Long before she became a senator.

Bernie takes what was learned and shouts about it in the most demagogue way possible, to the point that his supporters think he is the only one who knows or cares about the issue, and they even accuse Warren of copying Bernie.

Sheesh.

[KayF]

18. both of them stand out from the rest of the dems

on this issue

[blm]

21. Warren stands out from everyone in the country.

Do you not know that she was the expert person turned to after the economic collapse, and later tapped by Obama to implement HER idea and plan for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau?

Bernie cribs some lines and stats from decades of her hard work and you think that makes him an expert?