According to 538 Bernie has almost a 50% chance of amassing a majority of delegates

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[DarthDem]

1. I detest 538

They get very little right. Politics has too many variables to lend itself to statistical analysis. And I'm pretty sure their statistical analysis isn't as good as it could be either, unlike statisticians who are not driven by fast-moving news cycles and the need for clicks and ad revenue.

[PETRUS]

2. Interesting.

I thought they said they weren't going to update their forecast until the full Nevada results were available, and I don't see that they are quite yet.

[Polybius]

5. The full results won't change anything in that state

Bernie will still win by a huge amount in NV.

[PETRUS]

6. I'm sure you're right.

Maybe 538 came to the same conclusion. I just could have sworn that when I looked yesterday afternoon, I saw text saying they were suspending their forecast until the full Nevada results were available.

[Garrett78]

7. See post #3. They really only needed to know the approximate margin and who would finish 2nd.

Who's going to finish 2nd may or may not be in flux, but a change there wouldn't have much impact. It might bump Sanders slightly closer to 50% if Biden finishes 3rd, but we're talking just a point or 2.

[PETRUS]

8. Thanks! nt

[Garrett78]

3. Yesterday, they gave various forecasts based on Sanders...

...having a large, medium or small victory (with multiple variations of each based on who were to finish 2nd). So, this was to be expected.

Most have insufficient support among POC. The entrance and exit polls from Nevada, and then the results, confirmed that it's really only Sanders and Biden who are viable.

If Biden wins South Carolina handily, I imagine he'll get a significant bump. If Biden wins a close contest, I doubt the numbers will change much for him. A Sanders win would undoubtedly push him above 50%.

[abqtommy]

4. I've got a 50% chance of getting a flying pony for my birthday, too...