'Kiss Florida goodbye': Voto Latino head warns Democrats of coming 2020 debacle

[still_one]

"Appearing on MSNBC’s “AM Joy,” Voto Latino CEO María Teresa Kumar said Democrats should not count on taking Florida’s 29 electoral votes in the upcoming 2020 presidential election if Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is the at the top of the ticket.
During a fairly contentious panel discussion on the viability of Sanders as a candidate due to self-identifying as a democratic socialist, Kumar claimed that would not play well Florida’s Latino community."

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/kiss-florida-goodbye-voto-latino-head-warns-democrats-of-coming-2020-debacle/

[berni_mccoy]

1. Sanders won overwhelming support among Latinos in NV

And no one should take any state for granted in 2020.

[George II]

8. How many of those in Nevada are Cuban?

[Mr.Bill]

31. Yep, big difference there.

It's a huge mistake to lump all people of Latino descent into one group. There is much diversity within that group. Geographically, generationally, etc. White people in America can easily see diversity among their race, but often can't see it among other races.

[Gobbierella]

116. I totally agree

It's insulting to say "Latinos" are all one monolithic voting bloc. How about giving all people a platform that will help them and give a rest to the ethnic group slicing and dicing?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

133. Not just a mistake... it can also be insulting to some to make those kind of assumptions.

We should be respectful of everyone's views... don't forget, we're the "Big Tent" Party... unlike the RepukelicKKKon Party!!



Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[brutus smith]

51. Yep, the moderate Hillary Clinton took Florida in 2016. Oh wait, no she didn't.

[OliverQ]

169. Haven't you heard? Only moderates can win General Elections

despite none of them winning this century. Clearly we should keep trying the same thing that has failed every election in the past 20 years...

[MH1]

55. Meh, all Latinos are the same, right?

In case it's needed:

[Butterflylady]

114. After I read the first post that was my first thought

there are different Latino groups.

[MrModerate]

121. How many of those Floridians of Cuban extraction are third- or fourth-generation...

And not in thrall to permanent anti-Castro zealotry, or unaccountably allied with Republicans?

[Nay]

129. As a Florida native, I can tell you that there are lots of them. And they don't

necessarily vote Republican, or hate things like Medicare for All. They've been raised under capitalism and are in a perfect position to understand the difference between Cuba and the US.

[OliverQ]

168. Cubans consistently vote Republican anyway.

[George II]

170. No they don't:

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/11/666646389/the-cuban-vote-in-florida

[Captain Zero]

183. Yes. Fidel and the Bay of Pigs is to Cubans

What the loss of the Confederacy is to every redneck racist.

[Rumanji]

173. or Venezuelan

Fleeing the socialist regime of Maduro.

[rockfordfile]

33. It's not the same.

[octoberlib]

40. Sanders is polling at 10% in Florida.

[uponit7771]

159. Do you have this poll? thx in advance ... I think its pretty important

[octoberlib]

199. I actually saw it on here somewhere last week in the comments.

538 has him at 16% now, trailing Bloomberg (24%) and Biden (21.7)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/florida/

[JudyM]

195. 16% by the looks of it, second place to Biden. Why would Biden win FL if Hillary didn't, though?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/florida/

[uponit7771]

200. They like Biden more and he's against easy access to guns

[bitterross]

135. And that matters how?

No disrespect for Latinos intended. Tell me how Latinos in NV are representative of the electorate in general.

Bernie will be a disaster for every candidate in purple places. That is the simple truth.

[Autumn]

2. Is Florida planning on going Blue in 2020?

Bernie plays well to Nevada's and Colorado's Latino community.

[TwilightZone]

6. Which are nothing like Florida.

Nevada's Latino community is very different from Colorado's Latino community and both are quite different from Florida's. Just like every state is demographically unique, groups lumped together in demographic groups can vary widely from state to state and district to district in makeup and general ideology.

Blanket assumptions are rarely accurate and using them to extrapolate results to other jurisdictions is misguided and unlikely to be very accurate.

[Mr.Bill]

35. Thank you for stating that so much better than I did in my post #31

before I read yours.

[burrowowl]

167. And I don't think he'd be popular with the Batistas.

[George II]

9. "Florida" doesn't plan anything, the voters do. I doubt there are many Cubans or South Americans....

...in either Nevada or Colorado.

I'm sure you'll find something though.

[Autumn]

15. We got a lot of Latinos, and they like Bernie. Didn't have to look for it cause I know it.

[George II]

17. "A lot"? What is the magnitude of "a lot"? Cuban refugees and their families will NOT vote...

...for a candidate who has extolled the virtues of Fidel Castro or other Latin American despots. Nor will many Puerto Rican voters in Florida.

I know it.

[Autumn]

28. You can google breakdowns and articles the same as I can. Good luck George.

[George II]

30. Not interested. I already know the numbers, Autumn.

[Autumn]

84. Then don't ask me an question George if you know the answer already.

What is the magnitude of "a lot"?

[George II]

88. That was a question about YOUR perception of "a lot", the term you used.....

Yes, I know the numbers, and it's far from "a lot".

[sheshe2]

37. Many of the Puerto Ricans came to Florida after the hurricane.

The census has to have gone up. Many more than before.

[FloridaBlues]

54. Too and we have 5 other candidates who are diluting the percentage of votes

I wouldn't look to Florida for a win

[ehrnst]

70. Yes, his history of praising Castro will go over so well in Florida.

[oasis]

158. "Praise" maybe, but definitely no shrine to Fidel. So, there's that.

[greatauntoftriplets]

3. Lots of Cuban refugees in Florida.

So it's not really a surprise.

[thesquanderer]

7. ...and they are largely Republican, so we're unlikely to get most of those votes,

regardless of who we put up.

Though Florida does seem to be in play, even with Sanders, who seems about as competitive as the rest...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287549123

[George II]

13. Not anymore....

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/11/666646389/the-cuban-vote-in-florida

What we've seen over the years is an evolution. What used to be a monolithically, almost singlehanded base vote for the Republican Party has opened up in recent years where you see more and more Cuban Americans and second-generation and third-generation U.S.-born Cuban-Americans pulling the lever for Democrats.

And more.

[thesquanderer]

27. Encouraging. Maybe that's part of why nearly ALL our candidates are looking competitive there. nt

[John Fante]

38. Which makes sense. Trump has made it extremely difficult for

Cubans to seek refuge in the United States.

[greatauntoftriplets]

44. Thanks, George.

I knew that I had read that somewhere. It's also happening in Chicago's Cuban community. The Latino population here is quite diverse with people from Mexico, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Central and South America.

[TwilightZone]

14. 45% were Democrats or Independents as of 2018

And have been trending more to D/I in recent years.

We probably shouldn't just write them off with "they are largely Republicans".

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-cuban-american-poll-20190131-story.html

[Blue_true]

29. Exactly. It shows how out of touch people that make that claim are. nt

[quakerboy]

86. Which means 65% are Republican?

[mac56]

126. 55%

[quakerboy]

202. Wow. Thanks. I did not math that well

Regardless.. Pretty sure that means "largely" is an applicable word.

[Blue_true]

25. The younger ones aren't mostly republican. nt

[apcalc]

49. I understand they do not like Trump.

[democrattotheend]

109. Not as much as they used to be

Younger Cubans are more of a swing vote, from what I understand.

[NurseJackie]

10. And families... children... grandchildren.

So it's not really a surprise.

You're correct. The contempt for the regime that Bernie praised runs deep and long. What a sorrowful thing for them to know how Bernie feels about such things.

It's naive for anyone to suggest "it's over" and "it's in the past" and "it happened so long ago". Just as the grandchild or great-grandchild of a Holocaust survivor what it means to them and if they try to marginalize and dismiss it by pointing out how many years ago it was.

It's insulting.

[greatauntoftriplets]

47. Exactly.

Heck, I still am pissed off that my great-great-grandfather died in the Irish famine back in 1848.

[mitch96]

16. Lots of Puerto Ricans in central florida that got screwed over by the orange shit stain

Last edited Sun Feb 23, 2020, 06:50 PM - Edit history (1)

Will they vote Blue?
m

[wnylib]

118. Are thete enough of them to carry the state in the general?

I doubt it.

[Botany]

91. The younger Cubans are not so hard core but if they have film of Bernie praising Fidel ....

.... you can kiss Florida good bye

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Inter-generational conflict: Florida senior retirees don't want to pay for Bernie's proposals

Seniors with equity will be taxed heavily to pay for millennial programs, so yeah, she's onto something.

[Moderateguy]

5. I am more worried about our Congresspeople in FL

[Cha]

11. Thank you for this report, still_one.

[still_one]

12. President Obama won Florida, and it was a critical state as we all remember in 2000

[Cha]

21. Most critical.. nader and sarandon made sure we

didn't win Florida in 2000.

[questionseverything]

111. we lost florida in 2000 because the votes were not counted

275,000 over votes and 2/3 of them were for gore. where they would write in gore and punch next to his name


the lesson we need to learn is make sure the votes are counted in an open and transparent way

[Cha]

184. sarandon and nader were a big part of why we lost Florida

[SMC22307]

180. Hillary lost Florida, not Susan Sarandon.

Get a fucking grip already.

[wnylib]

64. Obama is not socialist.

Sanders might get some American born descendants of Cuban refugees, but even those who are Dems have a bad feeling about socialism.

[still_one]

71. I think Sanders embracing Fidel Castro during the cold war will not play well there for the majority

of Cuban Americans in Florida

[W_HAMILTON]

18. We couldn't even win back Florida in our 2018 wave election.

Gillum -- a strong progressive endorsed by Sanders -- lost the governor's race. I believe the moderate Democratic senator outperformed him, even though said senator was going against a stronger opponent.

[Cha]

22. That's right.. "endorsed by sanders".

[W_HAMILTON]

24. His endorsement was like the kiss of death in all but the bluest of areas.

[brutus smith]

52. Good thing Hillary won Florida in 2016. Oh, no she didn't.

But hey, feel free to blame Sanders.

[wnylib]

113. So if Hilary could not win FL, do you

really think Sanders could win over moderates, Cubans, military families, and retirees who can afford to move to FL?

If Sanders and his supporters lump together all Latin@ people, they don't know what they are doing.

[Blue_true]

39. Gillum lost by 24,000 vote. Nelson lost by around 4,000 votes.

There were tens of thousands of votes that got invalidated from strong democratic precincts because of the MAGABomber causing post offices around South Florida to close, ballots did not get post-marked and hence were not counted.

[wnylib]

124. Look for a repeat in 2020, which

will not go in Sanders' favor.

[Blue_true]

144. Florida has 11 days of early voting plus Election Day.

My state is a pink state, blue voting people need to realize that mailing in votes here is risky. People should take advantage of early voting and get their damned vote in.

Florida uses optical ballots, there is a paper copy of everyone's vote. If irregularities are suspected, those paper ballots get re-scanned. Republicans would have to find and destroy enough ballots to change paper ballots that favor the democrat, and if the DNC and FDC don't have poll watchers in place and allow that to happen, help us.

[wnylib]

151. Don't count on poll wstchers.

If they sre from the DNC, they will be discounted as partisan. If they are Feds, they WILL be partisan, and even likely to be the source of the irregularities.

We're not in Kansas any more, Toto.

[Blue_true]

153. You make really wild claims. Poll watcher are people that are loyal to the party

and there expressedly to insure that stuff doesn't take place. They can contact lawyers if they see wrongdoing.

Please use reality when posting, it is tiresome to deal with otherwise.

[wnylib]

155. LOL. Let's talk about reality.

Of course I know that DNC poll watchers are loyal Dems. I never said or even suggested otherwise.

But I did say they could be discounted. I did not think it was necessary to spell out who would discount any complaints filed by Dem poll watchers. But since it apparently is necessary, the same party that blithely shrugged off subpoenas to impeachment hearings and shrugged off the impeachment trial as an attempted partisan coup, is the same party that would shrug off election complaints made by DNC poll watchers. In other words, to spell it out, Republicans would discount and shrug off any complaints made by DNC poll watchers. Trump et.al. would say the complaints were fake and driven solely by partisanship.

Second, I said that Fed observers -- those sent by the federal government rather than as DNC representatives -- would be more likely to be the source if irregularities.

There are many government employees who have integrity and serve impartially regardless of who is in office. But perhaps you have not noticed that Trump and his advisors are winnowing out those people. Perhaps you missed the fact that Trump makes sure that people favorable to him are selectively placed where they can help him. I would not be surprised to see him do that in election monitoring. Hence my comment that government poll watchers cannot be trusted in the 2020 election.

Trump is unleashed from all restraints since the Senate acquitted him. Anything goes now with him. Therefore we cannot count on election norms, or on legal recourse. Have you forgotten FL in 2000? And Trump is worse.

Therefore, my quote from Dorothy in the Wizzard of Oz, that we are not in Kansas anymore. For people who need the quote meaning spelled out for them, it expresses the fact that things are no longer the same as usual.

It is tiring to spell things out to people who misread posts. Bye, and have a good night.

[Blue_true]

160. You keep spinning up massive in scale conspiracies.

BTW, I have never in my life seen "federal" poll watchers in US state election polling places. Somehow you see them on every corner.

Believe me friend, it isn't me who needs something spelled out to them, but my sense is spelling out wouldn't be adequate to quench conspiratorial, or maybe just outright paranoid minds.

You have a good night too.

[greatauntoftriplets]

50. That still hurts and I don't live in Florida!

[no_hypocrisy]

19. Aren't they worried about DACA, family immigrating to the

U.S., etc.? Trump will step on them.

[Moderateguy]

26. Seriously. Yo do know that they you have to be a US CITIZEN to vote..

If you are on DACA you do not have the right to vote

[wnylib]

137. Cubans do not have to worry about DACA.

I believe it has changed now, but for decades after the Castro Revolution was US policy to accept Cuban refugees.

[helpisontheway]

20. I think Virginia will flip back to red if Sanders

is the nominee .

[Duppers]

154. Gees, I don't know about that.

I rather doubt it since the hate for tRump keeps growing.


- VA resident

[Autumn]

23. Voto Latino should maybe explain to them the difference between Bernie and Cuba and that the GOP is

lying to them.

“You pare that down with a lot of the more conservative folks that are Democrats in Florida and I don’t see a pathway for him there,” she continued. “That’s just the beginning. I can tell you right now Donald Trump has been targeting folks on my staff since March of last year with an anti-democratic socialist message in Spanglish, English and Spanish. They are not leaving anybody behind, people don’t realize there’s a socialization happening on the Trump campaign that’s been very effective.

Florida Democrats can't get a campaign going to enlighten their voters? That's odd, but not really.

[Moderateguy]

32. If Sanders is the nominee, FL dems will have a much bigger fight on their hand

The one where they have to get their local democratic candidates elected or re-elected. They may have to come out and denounce Sanders to keep afloat

[W_HAMILTON]

34. Maybe you should.

I sure as hell you aren't hoping for everyone else to do your candidate's heavy lifting if he is to become the nominee. You all better show that same sort of enthusiasm and excitement and yadda yadda to get him elected and fight back against these inevitable attacks as you did to get him a resounding -- lemme check -- ~30% of the vote to potentially win the nomination.

And where do you expect Florida Democrats to get the money? Sanders and his disciples shit on all things Democratic and tell people not to donate to the party organizations -- "donate to individual candidates instead!"

[sheshe2]

57. +1000

[Autumn]

94. While I do speak and understand Spanish, enough to follow a conversation I don't read or write it.

Maybe the Florida Democrats could do something like this.

&fbclid=IwAR0GO1xZZ2Rhxpf2PlK7yB5BkpNHOQFnZO1THkYAIjGNokp7zQCu2fv45tY&app=desktop

But to this part of your post I've highlighted below.. Are you telling me that Florida Democrats who we are told hates Bernie and will never vote for him actually listens to Sanders and his disciples and does their bidding? Please

And where do you expect Florida Democrats to get the money? Sanders and his disciples shit on all things Democratic and tell people not to donate to the party organizations -- "donate to individual candidates instead!"

[rockfordfile]

36. that's Bernie Sanders responsibility.

Unless you're telling me something else

[sheshe2]

61. Bernie and his supporters should be doing that.

Florida Democrats can't get a campaign going to enlighten their voters? That's odd, but not really.

What is odd is 'Bernie Democrats" want Florida Democrats to do their job. The heavy lifting. Fact is not every Democrat is a Bernie Democrat.

[Autumn]

140. Florida Democrats are the one's saying that Trump is targeting their voters. I doubt that

the only thing the Trump campaign is lying to them about is Bernie Sanders. So yes, they should enlighten their Cuban voters about Trump's lying. Trump and his GOP consider and push the point that every Democrat is a socialist, including centrists.

“That’s just the beginning. I can tell you right now Donald Trump has been targeting folks on my staff since March of last year with an anti-democratic socialist message in Spanglish, English and Spanish. They are not leaving anybody behind, people don’t realize there’s a socialization happening on the Trump campaign that’s been very effective.

[wnylib]

132. Yes, the GOP is lying to them.

That's what the GOP does. With that comment, you are making the case for why Sanders should not represent the Democratic psrty. He will need to continually deal with the Socialist label and how well it fuels R talking points. Practically writes those points for them.

You do not have to be a socialist to be progressive.

[wnylib]

139. What kind of enlightenment are you

thinking of? Tell them that Sanders is not a socialist
when he is? Tell them that Dems are a socialist party, when we are not (yet)?

[Autumn]

147. Have you not heard Trump saying Democrats are all radical socialists?

“A vote for any Democrat in 2020 is a vote for the rise of radical socialism and the destruction of the American dream.”

“There’s a rumor the Democrats are going to change the name of the party from the ‘Democrat Party’ to the ‘Socialist Party.’”

“You have some of these socialist wackos, they want to double and triple your taxes, and that won’t come close to paying for it.”

“Don’t underestimate the power of socialism to get a vote.”

None of those things are true. Trump and the GOP lie.

WASHINGTON — President Trump has made branding Democrats as out-of-the-mainstream, economy-wrecking socialists one of the centerpieces of his re-election strategy. He has sought to do so partly by making four junior Democratic members of Congress — all women of color who are on the left side of the party’s ideological spectrum — the faces of the party, and conflating their views with the Democrats seeking their party’s presidential nomination.

First things first: All Democrats are not socialists. Most Democrats are not socialists. Of the 24 candidates for president, only Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont identifies himself as a democratic socialist. (Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, one of the four House members the president has taken to trashing, rose to fame after running on a democratic socialist platform.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/20/us/politics/trump-democrats-socialists.html

Democrats everywhere should be all over that. But Bernie

[wnylib]

152. Democrats as socialists is not a new

accusation. Goes back as far as FDR. Laid on thick in the Bush II years and thicker in the Obama years.

So now Sanders comes along embracing the term, confirming the worst fears of R's and arousing fear amon moderates, which R's will exploit.

[Celerity]

41. If ANY of our candidates become the nominee and we lose FL and WI, we have no real path

to winning, even if we fip MI and PA.

I explain

IF we lose WI and FL, we can WIN PA, MI, MN, VA, NV, NM, CO, NH and all the truly Blue states and still lose 270-268

IF we lose FL and WI, the odds are very very high that IA stays red as well, leaving only AZ and NC as remotely possible pickups and Trump is polling strong in both. OH and IN, if WI and IA are red, will be even redder. Also, if we lose WI and IA, PA and MI are also back in somewhat play for him as well more than likely.

The map looks like this



The other possibility is the ultimate nightmarish way for Trump to win, one that will rip the country apart.

If you look at that map above, you will see I gave Trump ME-2, which he won last time. Let's say we flip it back to Blue (a far more likely possibility than flipping AZ or NC or IA IF we lose FL and WI)

that yield this



269-269

Trump wins via the House electing him, even if we control the House. The process is that each state gets one vote and 26 are needed to elect a president. The Rethugs control exactly 26 House delegations, and the only two remotely close chances to knock it down to 25 are, ding ding ding... WI and FL (you can't make this shite up!!!), but due to gerrymandering and voter suppression, the odds of us flipping either are extremely poor. Also, we could flip one, but the Rethugs could gain the one tie state, PA, and that gets them back to 26. We have no shot at 26 ourselves, and could even lose some states that we control now with 1 seat margins, like CO, MI, and AZ or even other states we control as of now with more than a one seat margin.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fa6iq7MN40HIvob9li5z545pJhd1tQVgZ7GSn0kikLc/edit#gid=0


A 269-269 tie and Trump getting exactly 26 votes to win the POTUS in the House, which is the absolute bare minimum, and his getting them due to Rethug gerrymandering and voter suppression will cause riots I fear, especially if he gets crushed in the popular vote AND we hold the actual majority of House seats like we do now.

[still_one]

42. According to the latest polls, Wisconsin doesn't look good for us

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/20/quinnipiac-university-swing-state-poll-wisconsin-pennsylvania-michigan/4819853002/

[Celerity]

56. That was the reason I made this as a reply in another thread several days back, in reply to a FL

poster, who said FL was really looking grim.

That 269-269 tie scenario will turn into a national nightmare of epic proportions if it occurs, and more than any other election I have games out, the path to that EV 269-269 tie is pretty damn clear and simple. It only takes a loss in WI and FL, and then flipping ME-2 Blue, plus the rest of the states playing out to form based off the WI and FL losses and we are there.

If we lose WI and FL, the main thing standing between it occurring or not is the tiny (population-wise) and obscure, rural, remote ME-2 district. I just do not see IA flipping Blue if WI stays red, and I have little faith that we can take AZ or NC if the trend is such that we lose OH, IN, IA, WI, and FL. In fact, (and this would preclude the tie too) I think IF we lose WI and IA, then PA is really in play (MI a little less so) as well.

The 269-269 tie with the Rethugs 26 state House delegations put Trump back in the WH will be a pure theft as well, as they only have control of the FL and WI and PA (tie and possibly they take it back in 2020) delegations due to pure gerrymandering and voter suppression.

It would the THE ultimate constitutional gaming out by the Rethugs. Every single twisted up break would have been used by them, and they would win via profoundly flawed structures. Like I said, a national nightmare that will tear the country apart if our candidate wins the popular vote by millions, and we also still have a majority of overall SEATS in the House. So so many tiny Red States, including multiple single member at large House delegations, (WY, SD, ND, AK, MT all being Red, versus only DE and VT being Blue, along with DC having 3 EV's as well) helping to destroy the nation.

[still_one]

72. I think your analysis is right on Celerity

[Celerity]

78. I am so worried on so many levels. The best thing that could happen now is (and my dog, what a

horrid thing to wish for, as it will decimate millions of people) would be for a massive economic crash to start to hit within a few months from now. Trump has such authoritarian power accrued, however, that if his cadre even smells a wee whiff of a contraction, they will strongarm the Fed and the germane governmental departments to paper it over and delay it until after the election.

[still_one]

98. That was a big factor in 2008 for sure, but I wouldn't count on it this time. I think a lot of us

are very concerned on so many levels as you are:

Will we be nominating the strongest candidate or the weakest one? will the Democratic Convention be a contested one? Will there be foreign interference in our election, and is our voting system protected shenanigans?

Yes, there is a lot to be concerned about for sure.

This is our last chance to save the Supreme Court, or the whole judicial branch of the government

[Celerity]

100. [phone]

[still_one]

102. ......................

[wnylib]

150. I have another concern, as if we don't already

have enough.

If Sanders runs against Trump and gets enough votes to win, it would be so easy for Trump to declare a socialist coup and the necessity to void the election and impose emergency measures to protect the nation. This would be a rallying call to action from his supporters, including his thug militias. Even some moderates would acceot that as a necessity.

Trump's opponents would also feel a need for action, and would be divided between socialists and the traditional left. We end up like Syria.

If someone else is the Dem candidate, Trump could still try the claim of coup, as he has already done regarding the impeachment. But he would have less support for doing that, and less chance of getting away with it.

So much is riding on this election that no matter who wins or how, I expect violence. The only uncertainty I have about that is the degree of violence.

[Celerity]

172. I think IF he was going to pull the old state of national emergency card out, he would have to do it

Last edited Mon Feb 24, 2020, 12:09 PM - Edit history (1)

BEFORE the general, not after. I mean, he could try after, if he lost, but even most of his supporters would not go for that, other than say a hardcore group of lunatics. It would be seen as the ultimate sour grapes violent coup attempt if he did it after and tried to void the election. also, the whole socialist coup will mean fuckall unless we have control of the Senate AND the House as well. Plus, Bernie, even though he stupidly and falsely self-labels as a democratic socialist, is simply a bog standard social democrat. Why he calls himself a dem soc, I have no clue. That said, he DOES have supporters who ARE outright socialists and want the government to take over the means of production, but he has said NO, NO NO to that every time he is asked for years.

AOC's idea of democratic socialism is also just plain old social democratic boilerplate. It is like our Nordic governments here, with an expansive social welfare state, BUT also, a very robust (and also highly regulated at the same time) and vibrant capitalist segment of the economy as well.

Most of the Swedes that I live around here in Stockholm are bemused that the US thinks we are a socialist nation, and also confused as to why Bernie wrongly calls himself a socialist. Many, many I know in Vänsterpartiet (the Left Party, ie, the REAL socialists, and very small) do not care for him at all. He would be a member of the centre-left Social Democrats here, and a pretty vanilla one, in terms of his programmes. The spectrum in the US is so artificially skewed to the right. The average moderate to centrist Democrat in the US would fit in with the centre right main party here, The Moderates (they used to be called the Conservatives.), and people like Henry Cuellar would be considered hard right wingers here, especially in terms of his abortion stance, his anti-LGBTQ stances, his pro for-profit private prison stances, his NRA freindly pro-gunner stances, and his anti- global warming action/pro big energy stances.

A typical Rethug would probably be in the burgeoning anti-immigrant, borderline white nationalist Sweden Democrats here. Even that party is 100% in favour, however, of our universal, devolved single payer nearly free healthcare system, and our free uni tuition, etc etc, so the Rethugs would clash there as well, as would many US Democrats, who would clash with both the centre left and the centre right if they tried to imposed the fucked-up US healthcare and university systems unto Sweden.

I am only against MFA in terms of electability in the US. I have lived under several health care regimes, and the American one is by far the worst, unless you are wealthy and/or have a great private plan (and many who think they have a great plan are get fucked hard as compared to what they could actually be paying in a different system). My resistance) to MFA now is simply that it cannot pass atm, and it is insane to die on that hill electorally, as the Rethugs are fucking monsters and cannot be allowed to govern. It will eventually happen (a universal system, probably single payer) anyway, as the current US system is utterly unsustainable. Just over the next 20 years, at current rates of growth in spending, the US will spend in total over 125-130 TRILLION USD (and that is a low-ball estimate) on all healthcare, pharma, etc. The unfortunate thing is that it will take a systemic collapse in order for it to change.

[wnylib]

191. I agree with you on MFA.

I don't oppose it, but I recognize that in the US, it's a losing position for a candidate in a general election. And a very dumb label and position to run on in such a crucial election year.

As I typed this, I just heard an opinion poll result for NY state residents.. The vast majority of Republicans and Independents in the state believe that Trump will be re-elected. 48% - nearly half - of Democrats also think he will be re-elected. Such a depressing snd scary thought. I wouldn't feel quite as bad if we at least could get control of Congress, but I don't see that happening. If we don't take the WH, I don"t see how we would get down ticket votes.

Closer to home, Republican Tom Reed is planning a run for governor of NY in 2 years. He got in as a Tea Party candidate and has been remaking his image into a moderate. .People are buying it. He has not changed any of his political positions and solidly supports Trump. But he smiles constantly and talks softly and smoothly so he comes across to many people as such a nice guy. So in 2 years, I might be stuck with both Trump and Reed.

[Celerity]

192. Ugghhh, that is not welcome news. Let us all hope we can turn it around.

I fixed a good numbers of errors in the post you replied to, btw. My dyslexia kicked in massively on that and it was done from my mobile on the tunnelbana (our Stockholm subway). Still may be some errors, lolol. Sawwwy

Cheers

Cel

[andym]

43. Losing WI appears to doom us

And WI was for Trump against all all of our candidates in the latest poll.

[still_one]

48. Wisconsin isn't a make or break, if we capture Florida, Ohio, North Carolina for example

[Celerity]

99. WI and FL, if lost, more than likely doom us. The odds of flipping what is is left are very

shaky at best (and that is even assuming we flip PA and MI back blue). We are not going to win OH or NC if we lose WI and FL (IA as well, which would be the best shot we have to eek out a win, but a WI loss would truly bode ill for that). The trend lines are already poor, and WI and FL as losses would indicate even more dire chances in the rest.

more detail

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=569008

[jayschool2013]

60. Nebraska could split its EC votes

Obama earned one Electoral College vote from Nebraska in 2008 when he carried the Congressional District that contains Omaha. I haven't seen polling on that, but it's possible, which could turn both of those tight scenarios in favor of a Democrat (or Bernie, too, if he's the nominee).

[Celerity]

68. I am aware of that but NE-2, which went Trump last time, is very unlikely to be flipped Blue

Last edited Sun Feb 23, 2020, 09:02 PM - Edit history (1)

IMHO if Sanders is the nominee. Obama lost it in 2012 to Romney as well. He won it by 1% in the landslide 2008 election. NE-2, which Kara Eastman lost to the Rethug incumbent Bacon, is a tough pull.

[jayschool2013]

127. Trump won Omaha by 2 percent in 2016

That's not a huge margin, but I am also worried about the "Bernie effect," though I hope against hope that all the supporters of Sen. Sanders (I-Vermont) are right and that he'll rally the youth and disaffected Independent vote, even in places like Omaha.

[Celerity]

142. Well, if we did flip it, and Trump keeps ME-2 Red, then we are right back to the 269-269 ultimate

nightmare win for Trump via the House given the original positing of losing WI and FL

Trump won ME-2 by 51% – 41% in 2016, so perhaps a NE-2 flip to Blue and a Trump ME-2 hold is an even more likely way to that 269-269 hellish outcome.

[Celerity]

148. I made a mistake in reply to you, that makes flipping NE-2 less likely, & why I did not focus on it

versus ME-2 in the original post I made that started this all off.

Kara Eastman, the Dem, LOST, to the Rethug Bacon, and that was in the Blue Wave 2018 elections. Jared Golden, the Dem, in ME-2, flipped it to Blue in 2018.

[jayschool2013]

157. Good point.

Thanks.

[cannabis_flower]

69. I'd be

Watching Texas.

[xmas74]

95. I wish I could share this post. Nt

[Kurt V.]

143. we're not winning Wisconsin.

[Sloumeau]

165. Thank you so much for posting this.

Automatically kissing Florida goodbye with a Sanders nomination Illustrates what a lot of us have been saying--that a Bernie Sanders nomination means a really uphill battle to win the GE.

[George II]

198. Good analysis - we need a candidate that can win Florida and Wisconsin. One is out there....

....alienating himself from a huge bloc of Latin/South American refugees and immigrants.

[apcalc]

45. Yes, kiss it goodbye soon as Sanders /Castro comes to light.

[William769]

46. Will not play well with most in Florida.

[Iliyah]

53. President Obama won Florida twice . . .

It can be done.

The Cuban population are very leery of Socialist.

Plus, Republicans control many of the voting precincts and they cheat and steal.

[ananda]

58. Sanders is actually doing very well with Latinos!

No surprise there. He's got the message that
people like, no matter what ethnicity!

[Dream Girl]

82. Cuba! Castro! Refugees! Ffs

[Skittles]

123. they do not know the difference

nor do they care, apparently

[SMC22307]

174. They vote Republican anyway, at least the older voters. Ffs

[emmaverybo]

87. I'm speechless.

[rockfordfile]

119. Not the same in Florida. Sanders workers better get on the ball with regards to the areas of the USA

[cannabis_flower]

59. Maybe but..

It's likely that this year GOP can kiss Texas goodbye. Lot's of Bernie Hispanics in Texas and Trump love is not what it used to be here. I don't think Dems will take Texas with Joe, Amy, Mike, Pete or Liz. I really love Liz but I'm torn between voting for her or Bernie.

[vercetti2021]

65. Not close enough

Texas is trending and hard. But 2020 isn't it. 2024 I fully believe will be the tipping point

[cannabis_flower]

67. If Hispanics come out hard..

Especially young Hispanics, It will be. We have few Cubans here so they aren't really an issue. Mostly Mexican, Salvadoran and Honduran descent.

[Iliyah]

89. True dat . . .

Plus ya have to get rid of the Republican governor and many of his cronies, in order to secure a fair and balance run state.

[vercetti2021]

117. Abbott, Patrick and all them have numbered days

They got lucky last time. With the population blowing up in Texas from Hispanic voters and California transplants. Only a matter of time until Texas slips from them

[rockfordfile]

125. Texas is a fossil fuel state. Not going to happen

[blue-wave]

62. We have just been

fairly warned. There are consequences for actions.

[AlexSFCA]

63. what, are they gonna vote for trump then??

[still_one]

79. I don't know what the Cuban Americans in Florida will do. If they don't like either candidate they

may not vote

[AlexSFCA]

138. considering they voted republican in the past is not the worst outcome

[JGug1]

66. Not Playing Well To Latinos

Funny, he played pretty well to Latinos in Nevada. This is bullshit. I'm not saying a Sanders ticket wins Florida. I'm saying this person doesn't know what will happen and the only evidence we have, from Nevada, says it's wrong. Maybe the statement is made because the Floridian Latinos are more from Cuba?

[still_one]

74. I believe she is reflecting the views of Cuban Americans in Florida

[rockfordfile]

108. Nevada and Florida are not the same.

[Celerity]

149. Not just Cubans. SoFlo has a shedload of South Americans from nations that had socialist governments

that they detested or detest at present. The South Americans in Florida tend to be above Mexican Americans and Central Americans in terms of their socio-economic background and origins. Not all of course, but simply on balance. My older sister lived in Miami for several years and I met many SA's who fit into the paradigm i just laid out. This is by far more true of the older ones, so as the older gens die off, the RW tendencies will dissipate, hopefully.

[LenaBaby61]

73. 'Kiss Florida goodbye': Voto Latino head warns Democrats of coming 2020 debacle.

Florida is SO rigged and voter-suppressed that I've been mostly kissing Florida Good-Bye since 2000's Gore v Bush shit fest.

[Tarc]

75. Young Latinos are nothing like the old socialist-hating Cuban exile community, which is...

...thankfully, and swiftly, dying off.

[Initech]

76. Same shit, different year.

[Bradshaw3]

77. Florida is always fool's gold for Democrats n/t

[Laelth]

80. Re. socialism.

America loves socialism. It's ready for another strong dose of socialism. I give you Harry Truman:



Now, THAT is a real Democrat.



-Laelth

[quakerboy]

81. I'd happily trade Florida for Texas.

As well as solidifying New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado.

[rockfordfile]

105. No that's not reality.

Florida is a purple state. Texas is a major fossil fuel state.

[quakerboy]

164. as of 2017

Texas is 39% "Hispanic and Latino".

Lets give them reasons and enthusiasm to vote all up and down the ballot, and see what happens.

[IluvPitties]

83. Socialism is not winning concept in FL.

[cannabis_flower]

85. Someone mentioned Puerto Ricans

So I got to wondering about the type of Hispanics in Florida.

It turns out Hispanics are 23% of Florida's population.

Cubans make up 29% of them.
Puerto Ricans 20%
Mexicans 15%
Other Hispanics (Dominicans, Colombians, Guatemalans and others) 37.5%

I wouldn't count Florida out because of Cubans because Puerto Ricans, Mexicans and other Hispanics outnumber them.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanics_and_Latinos_in_Florida

[emmaverybo]

92. Wait til they get the true Bernie views on immigration. Sure he has evolved, but when the GOP

Uses that AND the avowed socialism—goodbye.

Latino Victory Fund has endorsed Biden.

[rockfordfile]

122. That kind of talk shows a degree of being out of touch.

[cannabis_flower]

166. Well if Bernie wins the nomination

time will tell

[Perseus]

90. Is "Voto Latino" threatening as a means to an end to turn people away from Sanders?

They cannot be expected to have any respect on their intellect if that is the way they think, and act, "either my chosen candidate wins, or I won't vote for your, and who cares if the creature wins" because the creature loves Latinos so much, he loves brown people, he can never get enough of meeting Latinos, a big reason why he chose to learn Spanish...Oh. wait, the creature can hardly speak English and he can definitely cannot speak Spanish, maybe he is one of those who think people who speak Spanish speak "Mexican".

Amazing how people think, they rather have the creature incarcerating more Latino kids and separating more Latino families than vote for Sanders...Sorry, but that is stupidity at its highest level.

[Nay]

136. Agreed. But as we've seen thru the years, people in general can really be dumb at times.

To get at the truth, we'd need to do polling of Florida's Latino communities.

[7horses]

93. Sanders wins Texas.

I'll trade Florida for Texas, Sander is going to take Texas.

[still_one]

101. Perhaps, but all the polls I have seen thus far is that no Democratic candidate is winning against

trump so far in Texas

[Iliyah]

104. Isn't Texas an hour behind Florida?

Concerning ECs in November?

[rockfordfile]

115. No. Why did you say that? Texas is a fossil fuel state. you're trolling

[uponit7771]

134. Please don't troll

[James48]

96. You are missing one important thing-

Nearly a MILLION new voters in Florida in 2020 will be eligible to vote, thanks to the ballot measure reforming former felons being allowed to vote in Florida starting in 2020.

If we can work to get them to register and actually vote, there is a whole new pool of Florida voters that can be persuaded to vote for Bernie. WE can do it.

[still_one]

103. You realize this isn't my opinion, it is Mara Teresa Kumar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/María_Teresa_Kumar

[IronLionZion]

97. Younger Cuban-Americans have been more liberal than previous generations

while older ones still associate liberalism with Castro and have traditionally voted Republican.

Let's not pretend Puerto Ricans don't exist. They're much more liberal than Cubanos. And Florida has other demographics of people, like transplants from the northern states, who may be more liberal. My parents live in Florida. They and most of their friends and neighbors will vote blue no matter who. We're brown. We're US citizens. And we vote. Deal with it.

[still_one]

106. I am not from Florida, so I have no idea what the sentiment is

[democrattotheend]

107. I've said this as well

I think Bernie could be as competitive as anyone in states like Wisconsin and Michigan, but I think he's going to have a hard time in Florida because a lot of Cuban Americans equate socialism with Castro. And the video of him praising Fidel Castro doesn't exactly help.

[warmfeet]

110. Good point!

I always like to give up before I know what I am up against. Seems wise. Why wait to give up later, when we can just give up now.

Let's just give up on Democracy, while we are at it. That would not be an over reaction, not in the least.

sarcasm

[TheFarseer]

112. I'm sick of

people "concern trolling" just because they're not getting their way. It's just a stupid label. If you are imagining people not being able to leave the country, driving cars from the 50's, no freedom of speech, execution of political prisoners - that's fucking not remotely what's going to happen.

[still_one]

128. Who are you calling a "concern troll"? The OP is just displaying an article by Mara Teresa Kumar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/María_Teresa_Kumar

[TheFarseer]

130. I certainly don't mean the OP

I mean the author of the article - or to be even more specific, the person the author was quoting.

[still_one]

131. +++ Appreciate the clarification. Thanks

[aggiesal]

120. Cuban latino's vote Republican anyway ...

Why would they want free health care (Medicare for all) or a free education?
We already know they're the healthiest and smartest Latino's around.

Beside, Pendejo45 always gives them jobs a mar-a-lago, what else could
they possibly need?

[Nanjeanne]

156. The older ones definitely do. I belonged to a theater group that was founded by Cuban

director that fled Castro. My dearest friends were Cuban and we simply agreed not to talk politics. My best friend Carlos hated JFK and never forgave him and there was no discussing the Vietnam War during early 70s and boy he would never see a Jane Fonda movie! But the children of my friends don’t have the same perspective and don’t feel that way at all.

[SMC22307]

175. Seriously. Why is DU in such a panic over this?

Older Cuban-Americans aren't suddenly going to start voting for Democrats... just ask Hillary Clinton in 2016. Younger voters, however, I'm not writing off just yet. My understanding is they're not as anti-Castro and want normalized relations between the two countries.

[aggiesal]

179. To answer your question ...

I have no idea about this panic.

The older Republican Cubanos will like the idea of free healthcare and
the younger Democratic Cubanitos will like the free education.

[emmaverybo]

178. Education and healthcare for all will not be free.

[aggiesal]

181. It will still be cheaper than what you're paying for your Healthcare & Education ...

Last edited Mon Feb 24, 2020, 10:47 AM - Edit history (1)

How much do you pay for your employers supplied private health insurance?
A family plan private health insurance would cost about $400-$600 per month?

What if we had Medicare for all?
Medicare's overhead is about 3%, while private health insurance is about 20% (only because of the ACA, otherwise 30%-40%).

With Medicare for all, you could pay half that amount for the same healthcare and get better prescription prices,
instead of paying $400-$600 for that family plan from your employer supplied private insurance company.

When we pool our money together we have huge purchasing power. This will drive medical prices down.
Could you afford to pay for the road you drive on, on your own?
Could you afford to pay for your child's education at a private school, or would you prefer pooling our money
and paying for a public school system?

Yes paving roads is not free, but WE (yes all of us) did it anyway.
Yes public schools is not free, but WE (yes all of us) did it anyway.
Free Healthcare will not be free, but it will be cheaper for everyone.
Include public university into the public school system and your child won't walk out
with a degree along with school debt comparable to a mortgage.

California had the public school system that was the envy of the world.
That's why the aerospace industry, computer industry and entertainment industry came here!
The state paid for your education all the way to a Doctorate degree as long as you could get
into any of the public universities in this state. UC System, Cal State system, Community College, ..., all of them.
This worked. Why? Because the wealthy at that time was paying for their fair share, around 70% in the 60's & 70's.

Then Governor Ronald Reagan said "Why should we pay for your college education, so that after you graduate,
you'll be against everything I stand for?"
So Gov. Reagan stopped California from paying for all college education.

Free Healthcare and Free College Education are do-able.

[emmaverybo]

182. For many of us it won't actually. But I would pay more taxes so others can have coverage though

honestly I don’t like the idea of a government program. You laid it all out well. Problem is probably
about 8O million have affordable, high quality healthcare they feel they already paid for. Another problem is that nothing will change for years, so folks want progressives to say what they plan to do until then.

And I say get in power first. Then argue.

I pay zero Medicare fee (retirement benefits reimburses me) and zero premium for 100 percent coverage with small co-pays and a few dollars a prescription. My retirement benefits have never denied a procedure, screening (very expensive ones), hospital admission, house call program, anything. My insurance gives coverage out of country. Gym too. I had a badly paying job for the work I did. The great thing was vested at 51 and benefits for life. So the changing jobs argument doesn’t work on me.

Again, I am concerned about my neighbor’s health, but not everyone is or is sold on M4All as the only way no matter how you parse it,

How not to sell it to those who like their policies is to tell them they don’t, insist when they have a real illness insurance will deny them, tell them their average cost is 400-600 a month when it is not.

But I appreciate the good info. So it costs more for now. We can cover every body with existing systems, regulated insurance, and a public option. Let’s get elected!

[aggiesal]

185. When Johnson signed Medicare into law ...

the idea was that this would be Medicare For All.
To start Medicare was set up for people over 60 (don't know the actual age, but I'll use 60 as an example)
After 5 years, drop it to 55.
After another 5 years drop it to 50
...
Eventually,
1965 - 60+
1970 - 55+
1975 - 50+
1980 - 45+
1985 - 40+
1990 - 35+
1995 - 30+
2000 - 25+
2005 - 20+
2010 - Everyone!
Something like this.

But because the conservatives don't give a $hit about anyone but the Greedy One Percent (GOP),
this was never implemented.

I believe there should be a public option (Medicare) for anyone that wants it and if you want that Cadillac insurance
plan, you should be able to buy that as well.
But everyone pays into Medicare.

[Kurt V.]

141. i rather hear from the voters themselves instead of a ceo. That's usually where the sanders will

doom us story falls apart.

[Prosper]

145. Bernie is polling within the margin of error of beating Trump to

every other Democratic candidate. Never heard even a rumor of anybody rejecting Trump’s tax cut concerning how to pay for it.

[TwilightZone]

161. National polls are irrelevant.

This is what matters:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=569008

[uponit7771]

162. Not in Florida and MOE on "other than x" incumbent candidate nationally is horrible

[IndianaDave]

146. The division which this post has generated is precisely why the Russians promote Senator Sanders!

It's disheartening to witness.

[uponit7771]

163. Facts matter and Sanders swing state polling is lack luster at best and has been for the last 3 ...

... months.

Becoming the democratic front runner didn't help Obama in swing states in 2008 it sure isn't going to help someone with even less appeal than him.

[aggiesal]

176. But when those in swing states are asked about ...

free health care, free education and other progressive programs,
they poll extremely well. They won't get those programs with
Republicans in charge especially with Pendejo45.

If Bernie wins the nomination, his programs become front and center
and hopefully he should get 50% of the air time.

[NCProgressive]

171. In Nevada, a LOT of republicans registered to vote as Democrats

and voted for Sanders to give their beloved Trump a weaker candidate

[Me.]

177. Sorry, But She Always Seems To Have Excuses For Latinos Not Voting

[PunkinPi]

186. Case and point...Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL)

Link to tweet

As the first South American immigrant member of Congress who proudly represents thousands of Cuban Americans, I find Senator Bernie Sanders’ comments on Castro’s Cuba absolutely unacceptable.

Link to tweet

The Castro regime murdered and jailed dissidents, and caused unspeakable harm to too many South Florida families. To this day, it remains an authoritarian regime that oppresses its people, subverts the free press, and stifles a free society.

[fallout87]

187. Oh , just more doom and gloom

...

[rzemanfl]

189. Can you quantify that? n/t

[fallout87]

193. LoL, are you my biggest fan?

You seem to be following me around for some reason. At least send me a heart

[rzemanfl]

196. I have just become obessesed with quantification. I have no heart.

[Tom Rinaldo]

188. I would love to win all 50 States, or at the very least all of the states now called "purple"

Don't expect it's going to happen though. Florida seems like it's becoming a heartbreak in every election in recent years. Trump got it last time and he might again. Clinton didn't win it and Biden might not either. There are a whole lot more Cuban Americans in Florida than there are in Arizona and Texas, or any other state with a large Hispanic population. Cuban American voting patterns have always diverged, to the Right, from those of other Hispanic groups.

[Politicub]

190. I wouldn't "count on taking Florida's" electoral votes regardless

of whoever is the nominee.

The state is too wishy-washy to depend on for any voting scenario.

[LexVegas]

194. Better look to for a makeup for VA electoral votes if that guy gets the nomination. nt

[intheflow]

197. Thankfully, the Latino vote is not a monolith, and Cuban-Americans are a very small slice.

Whatever might be lost in Florida can be made up with Mexican-Americans, Dominican-Americans, Puerto-Rican Americans, and every other Spanish-speaking/culture/heritage in the US.

[Gothmog]

201. Florida Democratic Party disavows Sanders.

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

203. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

?s=20