Is there hope that a big SC win for Biden would alter the fundamentals of the race?

[NewsCenter28]

If he wins by say 10-15, would that be enough for a delegate split on ST leading to a disruption of BS’s coronation? Or is it fantasy to hope SC moves ST either way?

[at140]

1. If Biden wins SC by 10-15, it becomes a race instead of coronation..nt

[Garrett78]

2. If Biden wins by 10-15 (assuming Sanders is 2nd), Sanders will remain the favorite, but...

...I think you'll see 538's forecast give both Biden and "No one" a significant bump. Super Tuesday, though, could still all but seal the deal for Sanders.

[IluvPitties]

3. That win would alter the race.

[dsc]

4. It could

better for him would be another bad debate performance by Bloomberg plus that win. As it stands, Bloomberg is likely to win FL a state Biden would otherwise likely beat Sanders in now. I do think a big win in SC would help him in the rest of the south which should help him keep pace with Sanders.

[Sloumeau]

5. I am assuming that "ST" means "Super Tuesday".

I have no idea what a big win for Biden would mean. I don't know if it would be a speed bump or actually alter the course. It is more people's interpretation of what a win means that actually tends to affect races. The Moderates are getting killed by their being too many Moderates. I know this because when pollsters made people choose between fewer Moderates, the Moderates relative percent went up a bunch rather than a significant percentage jumping to the progressive side. Imagine if in 2016, it was just Bernie on the Left but Hillary Clinton had to battle the primary out with Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, and a bunch of other Moderates. Bernie might have taken the nomination in 2016.

[Laelth]

6. Yes. A big win in SC would, in fact, alter the fundamentals in favor of Biden.

The problem is that it appears, more and more every day, that Biden will not get a big win in SC. This is what I see.

Steyer is making a serious play for SC. Kat Taylor has set up house in Columbia, and Steyer decided to forego NV and focus on SC, instead. Steyer is seriously cutting into Biden's support in the state. The result may be that Steyer's campaigning will hand the state to Sanders.

If Biden can't pull off a win in SC, his candidacy is doomed. It looks like Steyer, the Republicans (who are voting for Sanders), and everybody else I can think of, is fighting against Joe.

For what that's worth.



-Laelth

[IluvPitties]

10. Steyer is being selfish. He ain't winning shit and is hurting Biden.

[Laelth]

11. You may be right.

But I can't see any way to change the dynamic as I see it playing out on the ground in SC. Perhaps the upcoming debate will make a change.



-Laelth

[Bumperstickers]

7. The problem is two days later

The supertuesday tidal wave hits and a late saturday night win with people out and about on Sunday, there is no time for the media to give someone a push in one day because come Monday it will all be about supertuesday.

Also biden has reseved zero tv ads on supertuesday because he Had no money . he literally has no infrastructure in any of those states do to funds being so low.

[Laelth]

12. Bernie is likely to slaughter Biden on Super Tuesday.

Bernie's five-year-old and well-funded campaign is well prepared to kick the snot out of even the best one-year-old campaign that his competitors are bringing to the table. Bloomberg is the only exception. Money talks. We live in a capitalist society, after all.

-Laelth

[whistler162]

8. Wait until AFTER super Tuesday!

[jmg257]

9. There are 54 delegates, and a 15% threshold. Biden is polling 4ish higher then BS at 25.5ish.

Only other one currently above 15% is Steyer.

Likely the delegate difference won't be too big between Joe and Bernie, with both getting a bunch.

[ibegurpard]

13. I think it will need to be a blowout

In order to give Biden the boost he really needs. I can't see it being as lopsided as it was in 2016. Polling shows it much closer and Sanders seems to have made significant inroads with non-white voters. I think it would need to be closer to a 20 plus point victory. Perhaps the upcoming Clyburn endorsement will turbocharge his support.

[wyldwolf]

14. honestly, that was always the plan. He didn't go to Iowa & NH to play.

[Laelth]

20. I agree, and that was wise.

But he has to win SC, imo, and that now appears to be in jeopardy.



-Laelth

[wyldwolf]

22. Not as much as several days ago.

I actually think the news that Sanders tried to Primary Obama in 2012 - news that hit only after 70% of votes were in in NV - will have an affect on the African American electorate there. Could also be why Clyburn is dropping his endorsement when he is.

[Laelth]

23. A big part of me hopes that you are right.

But Joe, as much as I am fond of him, may be in for a rude awakening when SC votes. The deck is stacked against him.

-Laelth

[Kingofalldems]

15. Need some people to drop out.

[musette_sf]

16. yep

[bluewater]

17. If people want Biden to win, Bloomberg and Styer both need to drop out.

Nothing short of that will help Joe enough, the moderate lane is just split among too many candidates.

[Laelth]

18. Not gonna happen.

Steyer might (after SC), but Bloomberg is in for the long haul.

-Laelth

[Kingofalldems]

19. I'm not excluding Biden from dropping out either.

This is a mission to save the country and the party.

[bluewater]

21. Understood. But think long and hard about Bloomberg, he has too much baggage.

I would not throw Joe under the bus for Bloomberg. Too risky.

[NewsCenter28]

24. Precisely

If he loses S.C. on Saturday (which hopefully he won't, as no serious candidate other than he or Bernie has a hope in hell of winning there), but if he does lose and proceeds to immediately drop out, that may lead to a consolidation of the moderate lane behind Klobouchar, Bloomberg, Mayor Pete, or even Warren and split the delegates on ST. Much like Edwards withdrawing was actually the major contributor to Senator Obama's Super Tuesday success in 2008.

That said, Biden's supporters could possibly simply flock to Bernie on ST if he withdraws. Who knows? So, hopefully, for the sake of the world, Biden wins on Saturday, and uses that momentum to blunt BS on ST.