88% of NV now in, Sanders is at 40.7%, Biden 19.7%, and Pete 17.1% (raw final alignment votes)

[Celerity]

Last edited Sun Feb 23, 2020, 11:17 PM - Edit history (2)

sorry for all the confusion

edited to add the raw vote totals as well, the 47% number for Sanders is the CCD's (County Convention Delegates)




I have to add, FUCK THESE CAUCUSES

they are

insanely complicated, undemocratic and exclusionary

[Kurt V.]

1. What was up with Pete's impersonation of an Obama speech?

[Celerity]

2. link please

[Cal Carpenter]

3. Interesting you say that

When I watched his speech I remarked to hubby that if you turned off the sound, his mannerisms and facial expressions would be very Obama-esque. But not the words or vibe.

[spooky3]

27. I think he's adopted the cadence Obama used. Nt

[Celerity]

6. I did find this: Obama's "body man" Reggie Love, on why he's supporting Pete Buttigieg

[bluewater]

4. Huh. Both Warren and Buttigieg may not make the 15% threshold if this holds.

And Sanders' lead seems solid.

Oh well.

On to South Carolina!

[Celerity]

5. Warren never really had a chance to hit 15%,from most all of the analysis I have seen

Bernie absolutely crushed it with the Latinx vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/entrance-polls-2020-nevada-caucuses/

[bluewater]

8. True. But in a way, being in the same boat as Pete helps her.

It's the old "misery enjoys company" thing.

Nevada was a setback for her, and it eases her, what, 'embarrassment' if Nevada is also a setback for Pete.

Sort of, I guess.

In any case, it's...

On to South Carolina!

[Celerity]

9. yes, onward to SC, and then the clarifier, Super Tuesday, after which some drop out

I predict, post ST, that Gabbard (not that it matters, lol) Klobuchar, and Steyer are out for sure. Pete and Warren (I would rather she stas in to block Sanders) would be next, UNLESS Biden does meh in SC (barely winning or even coming in 2nd or third) and then has a poor super Tuesday, at which point he is toast as well. IF that happens, the only chance to stopp Sanders is (and thsi si a massive IF) if Bloomberg rebounds in the debate in SC, and then hammers it on ST.

If he does that, and Biden goes by the wayside, it is probably between those 2 unless some Warren or Pete can hang in and garner a shit tonne of votes from what is left as the 'compromise' candidate. Warren is more likely to do that tha Pete.

The entire situation is so damn fluid and perilous.

IF Biden crushes it in SC and also on ST, everyone but him should bail out and coalesce around Joe to stop Bernie. I so hope if that happens, even Bloomberg says, ok, I am out BUT I am going to drop a billion to make sure Joe wins.

time will tell

[bluewater]

10. Time will tell.

Good analysis.

Both Warren and Buttigieg are hoping that the field narrows just enough where people see them as the "consensus" compromise candidate.

But, of course, even for a longshot like that, only one of them will have a chance of pulling that off.

But, yes, time till tell.

[Celerity]

11. I am 100% comfortable voting for Warren in the general, or Joe, or Pete

Bloomberg far below those 3

and Bernie dead last. (The other 3, Klobuchar, Steyer, and Gabbard will be long gone, probably with at least one or two of the first 3 I listed)

[Hassin Bin Sober]

7. K and R!

[squirecam]

12. This is the delegates. Not the vote

The votes from Clark county:

Bernie Sanders 22,711 35.40%
D Joe Biden 12,866 20.00%
D Pete Buttigieg 9,163 14.30%
D Elizabeth Warren 7,741 12.10%
D Tom Steyer 5,753 9.00%
D Amy Klobuchar 4,863 7.60%
D Andrew Yang 454 <1%
D Uncommitted 293 <1%
D Tulsi Gabbard 207 <1%
D Michael Bennet 105 <1%
D Deval Patrick 24 0%
D John Delaney 6 0%
Reporting 94% in


Bernie only got 1/3 of the vote. But he’s going to get 46% of the delegates.

[Celerity]

13. he is going to get more than 47% of the 36 pledged delegates due to the 15% rule

the final alignment raw vote percentage for Sanders is higher than a third btw, it is 41% with 88% reporting






https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nevada_Democratic_caucuses#Procedure

In the closed caucuses, candidates must meet a 15% viability threshold within an individual precinct in order to be considered viable and 15% at the congressional district or statewide level, with supporters of non-viable candidates at precinct caucuses then allowed to support one of the remaining viable candidates. Of the 36 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, 23 are allocated on the basis of the results of the precinct caucuses, with between 5 and 6 allocated to each of the state's four congressional districts. The precinct caucuses also elect delegates to county conventions based on the results of the vote in each precinct. Of the remaining 13 pledged delegates, another 5 will be allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates) in addition to 8 at-large pledged delegates, and delegates to the national convention will be distributed proportionally based on the number of county delegates.

The county conventions will subsequently be held on April 18, 2020, to choose delegates for the state Democratic convention. On May 30, 2020, the state Democratic convention will meet to vote on the unpledged delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 36 pledged delegates Nevada sends to the national convention will be joined by 12 unpledged PLEO delegates (five members of the Democratic National Committee, five members of Congress, of which two are Senators and three are U.S. Representatives, one governor, and one distinguished party leader). These delegate totals do not account for pledged delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.

[squirecam]

14. Looking at the vote, Pete is above 15%

At this time...

[Celerity]

16. yes, I listed the wrong number, I updated my OP

[jmg257]

15. Thanks again for clearing that up!

[Celerity]

18. I edited the OP to reflect all the numbers, Sanders in terms of final alignment votes is at 40.7%

Biden at 19.7%, Pete at 17.1%

the other number I had put up was CCD's

sorry for the confusion!!

<<< Cel

[jmg257]

20. Ha no problem! I did the same thing several times ...confusing stuff,

With lots of fine print!


Cheers!

[Celerity]

21. the problem was that the counter listed as the main results in Google did NOT include the vote %

it only listed the CCD %

here:




I found the entire numbers and put it in the OP and corrected the headline

they need to trash this crazy caucus system!

semi-closed regular primary please!!!

[squirecam]

17. Pete is not doing as bad as it looks.

Because people are reporting the delegates and saying Pete is below 15%. He wasn’t.

Bernie is also not doing as well as reported. He got 35% of the vote, not 50%.

The final realignment numbers are unreliable. They don’t accurately represent the second choices, as they may not have been viable either in many precincts.

[Celerity]

19. I fixed it, but Sanders, after alignment got 40.7% of the votes, not 35%

Biden 19.7%, and Pete 17.1%. The other numbers I had up were the CCD's

[squirecam]

22. Yes. But the final realignment isn't an accurate measurement

Of peoples second choices. You could only pick 5 on the early ballot.

If you picked Yang, Amy, Pete, Warren and then Sanders as your last choice, and none of the first 4 were viable, then Sanders gets the realignment as the last choice. But in truth you had 4 candidates before him.

The two key numbers are the First vote (the “primary” result) and the state delegates (the “caucus” result).

[Celerity]

23. its a crap system!!

but the final alignment is what the CCD's are calculated off of

and I did, when I edited the OP, make sure to say that it was the final alignment number in terms of vote % that I listed

I understand that NV used a different procedure than Iowa

I do agree it is all a shit system, both IA and NV

[squirecam]

24. I want all caucuses to end too.

Nt

[Celerity]

25. [phone]

[Turbineguy]

26. Congratulations to Senator Sanders.

Let's hope that if he ultimately wins the nomination that his supporters can get out the vote to defeat trump.

The GOP and Putin seem to believe that his supporters won't. I hope they are wrong.

[Democrats Ascendant]

28. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!

I've been looking for real info on what's going on in NV.