Bernie's path to the presidency

[babylonsister]

https://www.axios.com/bernie-sanders-2020-presidential-election-chances-3459ae66-0aa0-4a53-97f8-732e8cbb5d9f.html

3 hours ago - Politics & Policy
Bernie's path to the presidency
Jim VandeHei


Lots of Democrats are in full panic that Bernie Sanders will win the nomination and get clobbered in the general election — and bring the party down, too. But the evidence, particularly the polling, doesn't back those doomsday warnings.

Why it matters: Virtually every national and swing state poll shows Sanders tied with or beating President Trump. And, unlike every rival, he has a huge base of fervent, unshakable supporters he can only grow.

Just the facts, please: A Quinnipiac Poll last week showed Sanders beating Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. A CBS News/YouGov poll showed Sanders beating Trump nationally.

A Texas Lyceum poll shows Sanders doing better against Trump in Texas than any Democrat, losing by just three points.

He’s socially savvier: Sanders has much larger followings on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and other platforms than his rivals — and has consistently shown new media sophistication others lack.

Loyalty matters: The guy’s base writes checks regularly, for years now, making him the best-funded non-billionaire in the Democratic game. His supporters also show up — on social, at rallies, in elections. Ask Trump if this matters.

Socialism hasn’t killed him: It’s not like Sanders hides his big government socialism — he has screamed it to the nation for a half-decade. Maybe voters don’t care, just like 45% don’t care about Trump’s outlandishness.

Peter Hamby, who works for Snapchat and writes for Vanity Fair, argues "bed-wetting" Democrats might have it all wrong:

"Instead of asking if Sanders is unelectable, ask another question: What if Sanders is actually the MOST electable Democrat? In the age of Trump, hyper-partisanship, institutional distrust, and social media, Sanders could be examined as a candidate almost custom-built to go head-to-head with Trump this year."

He’s a Trump-like celebrity: "Running for president has always been about winning the attention war, and the competition for attention has never been more difficult than it is in 2020,” Hamby writes. Sanders has way more old-school and new-age celebrity than the rest of his rivals combined.

The bottom line: The truth is we are all clueless about what voters want or will accept. That includes everyone on Twitter, inside the Democratic establishment — and me!

[MrsCoffee]

1. Do not want.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

2. Yea ok

[Squinch]

3. But we AREN'T clueless about what the voters want. They told us quite clearly in 2018.

When Our Revolution and Bernie's hand picked candidates were clobbered, and dozens of moderates won and turned the House blue.

[uponit7771]

6. +1, 2/3 rds of Sanders house endorsements got mud stomp in 18 in their primary or general election

... cause no one wants bullshit "I don't have the details right now" responses.

[uponit7771]

4. Sanders has no historical swing state appeal outside of MOE, Biden has the most and just like Obama

... the swing state polling will go back to where it was before covention but Obama had

- inspirational appeal
- a shock event sans Sept 08

Sanders has NEITHER among most of the electorate as of now and is not most likely to get them

[Recursion]

5. His path to the White House is more or less straightforward: HRC + Traficant voters

That's not really my worry, honestly, it's what running that campaign does to House and Senate candidates in the South.

[dalton99a]

7. Operatives are working hard to promote "Bernie Will Beat Trump - Nominate Him!"

Many of them are not Democrats

[JudyM]

17. Um. Operatives are actually working hard to promote "Bernie is unelectable - run away!"

While a bigger tent continues to form around him.

[Happy Hoosier]

8. Wait until the GOP unleashes the propaganda machine

Bernie has given them SO much ammo.

His numbers will go into freefall.

[empedocles]

12. Real exposure hurts BS badly

[njhoneybadger]

9. For Fuck's sake Republicans are handling him with kid gloves.

When the gloves are off his polling will take a dive.

[still_one]

10. If and until Bernie becomes the nominee, the national polls of him against trump are meaningless

Same thing applies to the other Democratic candidates

For example, I do not believe Bernie has been vetted regarding his past and present views as much as some of the other candidates, and until that happens, I don’t think we can access his standing accurately through national polls

[empedocles]

11. The Socialist BS underlying premise is that you can fool most of the people

most of the time.

The shaky, activist caucuses mean little, NH not much more. The BS momentum is with the 24 hour news cycle, which can shift easily.

The GE voters have not accepted 'Socialism' in the past. As most on DU have very clearly noted, even DU Dems do not accept BS Socialism - and many voters everywhere know, we don't need Sanders as Dem nominee to drill home that point by November voters.

[BlueTsunami2018]

13. Well, we're going to see.

It may be that people just aren’t going to care what sort of attacks Тяцмр puts on him. It may be that his own words won’t come back to haunt him. It may be that everyone is just so sick of the bullshit with Тяцмр that they’ll vote for anyone over him. It may be that we’ll finally get that overwhelming groundswell of young and new voters that want to try this out.

It’s possible. I know a lot of people in my union who wanted Bernie and would have voted for him over Тяцмр but would not vote for Secretary Clinton.

The uncertainty of it all is scary. We’re either going to get killed or win decisively. I don’t think this has the makings of a super tight race with Bernie as the guy.

[Blue_Tires]

14. 2016 taught us polls are shit, anyway

And the mere fact that Trump and his fixers are openly salivating about facing Sanders in a national election should be a red flag for everyone...

Link to tweet

[Blue_Tires]

15. VandeHei should have cut to the chase and just said

"Because Sanders has the backing of Moscow and the other candidates don't..."

[Liberty Belle]

16. Thanks. Swing state polls are what I've been waiting to see. We need more of these.

Not hand-wringing and dire predictions. Actual swing state polls.

Hilary Clinton lost the electoral college vote (though not the popular vote), in part due to voter suppression by the GOP but the fact is she did not get enough votes to win. Could a progressive populist like Sanders who appealed to disgruntled working class people have fared better? We'll never know, but the answer may well be yes -- something the DNC doesn't want to acknowledge.

Does Sanders often sound angry? Yes. But most of America is angry. Angry over lack of job opportunities, soaring healthcare costs, soaring education costs robbing us of opportunities. Those are the issues to run on to beat Trump's "the economy is great" message. It's not working for most Americans.

I am still not decided who to vote for here in California, and what those swing state polls show is a major factor that will help me decide, along with who still looks viable after South Carolina and anything unforeseen that could occur. But right now, I think the best shot to beat Trump is someone who presents a strong contrast to him -- Warren or Sanders, ie, and definitely not Bloomberg, a billionaire former Republican with a a record of sexism and racist police policies that will turn off progressives, women, minorities and those sick of corporate-wing Dems who want to protect assets of the rich and don't care so much about the struggles of real, working class people. Bloomberg is a formula to lose - no matter how much money he spends.

If not Warren or Sanders, than one of the others, all of whom are good on most issues and are at least decent human beings and were not Republicans anytime in recent history if at all, the minimum standard we should have.

[ibegurpard]

18. agreed