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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
South Carolina Looks Like A Two Person Race
Public Policy PollingPPP’s newest poll of Democratic primary voters in South Carolina finds it looking like a two person race, with only Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders reaching double digits in their support. Biden gets 36% to 21% for Sanders, with Elizabeth Warren at 8%, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer at 7%, Tulsi Gabbard at 6%, and Amy Klobuchar at 3% rounding out the field.
Other recent polls have found Steyer’s support in the 15-20% range. If he has indeed collapsed, as our poll seems to suggest, it appears his former supporters are making their way to Biden and helping him to open a bigger lead in the state. The key to Biden’s success continues to be strong support from African Americans- he gets 50% to 21% for Sanders, with no one else polling above 6%.
The South Carolina numbers show the difficulty Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and even Elizabeth Warren are going to face as the Democratic contest moves to more diverse states. The race is actually pretty close among white voters with Sanders getting 22%, Biden 20%, and Warren and Buttigieg each 15%. But Warren and Buttigieg are each at 2% with black voters, dropping their overall support into single digits. Klobuchar gets just 1% with African Americans.
There’s been a lot of discussion about whether Republicans will try to interfere with the Democratic primary this weekend. We actually find that there are a fair number of Trump supporters- 14% of the electorate in this poll- planning to vote in the Democratic contest. But at this point their support is dispersing enough among different candidates not to have a real impact on the race- 32% are going to Gabbard, 15% to Sanders, and 12% to Biden. Unless Trump himself asks his supporters to go vote for someone in the Democratic primary, that doesn’t seem likely to end up being a major factor in the race.
Other recent polls have found Steyer’s support in the 15-20% range. If he has indeed collapsed, as our poll seems to suggest, it appears his former supporters are making their way to Biden and helping him to open a bigger lead in the state. The key to Biden’s success continues to be strong support from African Americans- he gets 50% to 21% for Sanders, with no one else polling above 6%.
The South Carolina numbers show the difficulty Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and even Elizabeth Warren are going to face as the Democratic contest moves to more diverse states. The race is actually pretty close among white voters with Sanders getting 22%, Biden 20%, and Warren and Buttigieg each 15%. But Warren and Buttigieg are each at 2% with black voters, dropping their overall support into single digits. Klobuchar gets just 1% with African Americans.
There’s been a lot of discussion about whether Republicans will try to interfere with the Democratic primary this weekend. We actually find that there are a fair number of Trump supporters- 14% of the electorate in this poll- planning to vote in the Democratic contest. But at this point their support is dispersing enough among different candidates not to have a real impact on the race- 32% are going to Gabbard, 15% to Sanders, and 12% to Biden. Unless Trump himself asks his supporters to go vote for someone in the Democratic primary, that doesn’t seem likely to end up being a major factor in the race.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
3 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
Last night I saw polling with him in a single digit lead. And with the poll you posted, he's still well ahead within the margin of error.
Go Joe Go!! 
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
