New PPP South Carolina -- Biden regains big lead! +15 over Sanders

[honest.abe]

Joe Biden 36%
Bernie Sanders 21%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Tom Steyer 7%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
Tulsi Gabbard 6%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Someone else / Undecided 11%

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/SouthCarolinaResultsFebruary2020.pdf

PPP’s newest poll of Democratic primary voters in South Carolina finds it looking like a two person race, with only Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders reaching double digits in their support. Biden gets 36% to 21% for Sanders, with Elizabeth Warren at 8%, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer at 7%, Tulsi Gabbard at 6%, and Amy Klobuchar at 3% rounding out the field.

Other recent polls have found Steyer’s support in the 15-20% range. If he has indeed collapsed, as our poll seems to suggest, it appears his former supporters are making their way to Biden and helping him to open a bigger lead in the state. The key to Biden’s success continues to be strong support from African Americans- he gets 50% to 21% for Sanders, with no one else polling above 6%.

The South Carolina numbers show the difficulty Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and even Elizabeth Warren are going to face as the Democratic contest moves to more diverse states. The race is actually pretty close among white voters with Sanders getting 22%, Biden 20%, and Warren and Buttigieg each 15%. But Warren and Buttigieg are each at 2% with black voters, dropping their overall support into single digits. Klobuchar gets just 1% with African Americans.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/south-carolina-looks-like-a-two-person-race/

Looks like Joe got his mojo back!

[mcar]

1. Kick

[still_one]

2. I hope so. Thanks for this abe. I cannot find the sample size or MOE

[jimfields33]

3. That South Africa story needs attention

That was so ridiculous and if trump uses it in the general, we’re in trouble.

[still_one]

8. What are you referring to jim?

[jimfields33]

9. His arrest as a senator when Nelson Mandela was realized from jail

Problem is everyone who was with him on the official trip said nobody was arrested. A senator would have world news if that happened.

[still_one]

16. Now I know what you are talking about. While I agree it was stupid of him to be puffing that story,

I don't think it will have any impact one way or another

Sure, I understand how Biden's opponents will use it against him, but I don't think that will resonate very much

just my opinion of course, and it won't even buy you a cup of coffee

[uponit7771]

23. If the story has ANY truth to it it bolsters Biden's cred with PoC doesn't matter if he got arrested

... Biden was willing to.

I don't see how this helps Red Don; Biden fighting with PoC / Red Don fighting to take away the children of PoC.

[still_one]

27. The problem is there are doubts being raised about the incident, and if it isn't true, while I don't

think it will change things significantly, he may need to do some damage control

[katmondoo]

12. There is always something that a candidate says that maybe a problem.

They each have something. If they were all perfect we would have nothing to talk about.

[jimfields33]

13. Ha! That's true.

[honest.abe]

15. LOL.. nobody cares about that except the Sanders gang.

[still_one]

18. I thing it will be more than just the Sanders group, but regardless I don't think it will go very

far, especially when compared to a president who says he can shoot someone on 5th avenue, and nothing will be done to him

[jimfields33]

35. We'll see tomorrow

[honest.abe]

19. Here you go..

PPP interviewed 866 likely Democratic primary voters by phone and text on February 23rd and 24th and the margin of error is +/-3.3%.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/south-carolina-looks-like-a-two-person-race/

[still_one]

22. Thanks abe. Looks like a reasonable poll

[bearsfootball516]

4. That would be a huge win for him going into Super Tuesday

And would give him the momentum.

[The_Counsel]

11. I Dunno About "Momentum..."

...but it would certainly keep Biden from having to shut his campaign down early. I'm good either way.

[bluewater]

5. Why do you build me up (build me up) buttercup, baby Just to let me down (let me down)...

For some reason, this song title seemed, well, apropos.

[blm]

6. Looks like Warren moved Joe to Bloomberg voters back to Joe.

[still_one]

10. It is only one poll, and it needs confirmation with other polls, but I sure would like to think that

Elizabeth's Strong performance at the debates had the effect of diminishing Bloomberg, though Bloomberg is not running in South Carolina.

I am thinking that Warren move above Steyer a significant, and might represent a fracture in the billionares campaigns

[womanofthehills]

65. 66% of the people in this poll were over 46 yrs old

Link to results

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/SouthCarolinaResultsFebruary2020.pdf

[Cal Carpenter]

21. And Steyer has polled high lately in SC, but not on this poll

So I think some of it probably comes from Steyer too.

[still_one]

24. No doubt. It is also one poll, and I think we need other polls to determine if this is an outlier

or not.

Obviously, I hope not

What concerns me is the volatility of the poll numbers.

Frist Joe is doing well, then Joe is barely doing ok, now Joe is doing well again.

I don't understand what is going on with this volatility

[squirecam]

36. It's simple

AA voters want to beat trump. That’s the goal.

Biden looked horrible the past few months, when it looked like he might not make it, they were looking around at others. Now that it’s clear that Warren, Pete, Amy and Tom will not be the nominee, the choice is either back Biden, or split the vote and Bernie wins.

I don’t think they want the race over at this point. That means Biden.

[The_Counsel]

7. "Looks like Joe got his mojo back!"

Either that or one (or both) of those polls isn't nearly as accurate as we'd like...

[honest.abe]

14. This one is the most recent.. in fact very recent: 2/23 - 2/24

I think things are going to turn for Joe.

[The_Counsel]

30. Understood, But Is It the Most ACCURATE?

That seems like an awful big swing from "up double-digits" to "virtually tied" to "up double digits" again. All in a matter of days? It just makes me wonder....

[honest.abe]

39. Alot of it apears to be Steyer collapsing and those voters went to Biden.

Also, I just thing many Dem voters are realizing that they need to coalesce around 1 candidate to defeat Sanders and that candidate is Biden.

[Cha]

20. Steady On, Biden!

[Garrett78]

25. Another lesson for all those who can't accept that each contest impacts the following contest.

IA and NH are meaningless. NV is meaningless. Blah, blah, blah.

2nd place in NV was very important for Biden.

Now, we do need to see other polls, but I've been saying for a few days that I didn't think Steyer's numbers would hold. He was never going to get 20+ percent in South Carolina.

[Gothmog]

26. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[still_one]

29. I wonder if the recent endorsements are having some effect?

[grantcart]

28. Go Joe go

[Hermit-The-Prog]

31. Gabbard over Klobuchar?!? wtf, South Carolina?

[ramen]

32. That caught my eye, too, no idea what that is about. nt

[berni_mccoy]

37. Puts the whole poll into question...

She got ZERO votes in NV.

[HarlanPepper]

41. Oh yeah.

Especially since Bernie isn’t ahead.

[berni_mccoy]

42. In case you haven't noticed, I'm not a Bernie supporter

My candidate is Senator Warren. She is my senator and I will be voting for her in the MA Primary.

I’ve donated only to her primary campaign.

[TwilightZone]

62. Nevada and South Carolina are nothing alike

Why would you think results in one extrapolate to the other? Not only are they very different states demographically and culturally, but one's a primary and one's a caucus.

[squirecam]

38. Republicans?

Nt

[reACTIONary]

40. 6 and 3 are right close to the margin of error. So...

.... it doesn't really mean much.

[totodeinhere]

48. Actually Gabbard has spent quite a lot in S.C.

But I also have trouble believing that she is really ahead of Amy.

[blm]

58. Somehow Gabbard spent almost $600,000 advertising in SC

That’s a bit more than Biden at this point.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

59. Need to check the exchange rate on that. ;)

[blm]

60. Da

[subana]

33. beautiful!!

go Joe!!!

[Scurrilous]

34. I sense a disturbance in the exploding plastic inevitable class warfare 45 delegate barreling toward

[honest.abe]

45. LOL

[Scurrilous]

49. ...

[HarlanPepper]

61. Hahaha!

[LW1977]

44. Great news!

[totodeinhere]

46. NBC News/Marist also out today has Joe +4.

And these polls don't fully reflect Bernie's momentum coming out of Nevada. But a second place finish won't hurt Bernie that much. He is looking good in a multitude of Super Tuesday states.

[honest.abe]

47. That poll is stale... conducted Feb. 18 to Feb. 21

The PPP poll was done Feb 23-24. A few days is like an eternity in primary politics.

[totodeinhere]

50. OK I see what you mean. For some reason RCP had that poll listed above the PPP poll.

So I stand corrected.

[womanofthehills]

66. but the ppp poll respondents were mostly over 46 yrs old - 66% of them

[uponit7771]

70. Those are phone calls not age, Biden is getting 28% of 18-45 yr olds Sanders is getting 36%

[uponit7771]

69. +1, The Marist poll has a 6% MOE why do they even post those?

[Deero]

51. fyi

PPP also said 14% of the respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, but those voters were split pretty evenly between Biden, Sanders, and Gabbard. So, if correct, it suggests Republican efforts to mess in the primary are basically canceling each other out.

This represents a swing of Steyer voters back to Biden, which tracks based on him having a very bad week. He failed to qualify for the NV debate and then finished very low while Biden took 2nd and won the black vote. Seems Biden could be the obvious choice now for the moderate lane.

If this is close to the result, it is going to leave a mark on the primary.

[Loki Liesmith]

52. Average it

We will see.

[McCamy Taylor]

53. We just need to turn out Democratic voters in order to overwhelm all the planned party hopping

that the GOP intends to do.

[questionseverything]

54. the only paper to actually count in sc is the absentee ballot vote

anything that comes out of the same day election is "faith based"

no paper trail at all in sc...aught to be illegal

[W_HAMILTON]

55. This is good news in the sense that, as many have suggested...

...if the field narrows, Biden will be the biggest recipient. Of course, the field hasn't narrowed on its own, but the voters -- at least in this poll -- have narrowed the field themselves by not supporting the other remaining candidates as much.

Now, hopefully the field *actually* narrows after South Carolina and, if not, hopefully the voters on Super Tuesday will narrow it once again themselves by just voting for only viable candidates.

[NBachers]

56. We give Joe momentum by way of our donations.

[SylviaD]

57. Joe isn't my first choice, but...

...I hope he creams Sen. Sanders.

[Chemisse]

63. That's good news! n/t

[NCProgressive]

64. KnR

[onetexan]

67. WOOOOPP!!! Joe's got his MOJO back!

[MontanaFarmer]

68. Joe POP!

another poll showing him tied in Texas with Sanders. I feared Bernie may run up large delegate margins in Texas. If that turns out not to be true, Joe is in pretty good shape.

[Demsrule86]

71. Buttigieg and Steyer should get out...Klobachar and Warren too.

[honest.abe]

72. That would certainly change the dynamics instantly.

Most likely in Biden’s favor.

[Cha]

73. KR!

[ucrdem]

74. Game on!