Did tonight's debate change the trajectory?

[Quixote1818]

My gut tells me that because Biden had a good debate in a state he is already leading in and really needs to do well in, it's possible this debate could lead to a stronger win in SC. If that happens then perhaps his campaign will have a second wind and he can possibly be the comeback kid? Everyone was going after Sanders tonight and I think he took some hits but he did a pretty good job deflecting the attacks and staying on message. However, I think he took a small amount of damage. If Sanders falters in SC coming in below 2nd place and Biden does really well, then tonight's debate could be a game changer. Not sure Sanders performance in the debate changed things that drastically though. If Sanders takes second in SC, he stays the front runner but Biden supporters will certainly have more hope then they had before this debate. If Sanders comes in 3rd then that would be a big blow and Biden and whomever takes second would have a big lift going into Super Tuesday.

I don't think any of the others had breakthroughs or took major hits.

[mzmolly]

1. I hope so.

[MisterFred]

2. No. Unless Steyer somehow craters in SC in part because of the debate. nt

[dansolo]

22. I think Steyer was buoyed by uncertainty about Biden

I'm expecting for people to shift from Steyer back to Biden.

[MisterFred]

27. Perhaps. I was thinking the other way around.

That Biden is buoyed by Steyer's lack of national standing. According to various reports, Steyer has the best SC ground game - community outreach, campaign organizers, etc.. If he has significant long-term support, then he may have a relatively high floor in SC.

[Hoyt]

3. Would think so. Although, early voting might temper impact.

[Quixote1818]

4. Good point. nt

[CentralMass]

5. I guess we will have wait for the polls to close in South Carolina.

Conventional wisdom says that Biden will do well but who knows these days.

[David__77]

6. I don't know that it matters much regardless of where things land.

Put another way- regardless of who ends up being the nominee, I doubt this will be decisive. Somehow I failed to realize how little time there is between South Carolina and “Super Tuesday.” So much early voting has already occurred as well.

[CentralMass]

8. Good points.

[Quixote1818]

9. Yes, good points. Nt

[OAITW r.2.0]

7. Biden / Warren.

Joe - International Triage
Elisabeth - Domestic agenda.

Perfect.

[Blue_true]

10. After Super Tuesday Sanders is in for a very rough stretch.

The race swings through some big southern states. I don't see Sanders really going clear of Biden, but I can see Biden opening up a gap on Sanders before the race comes back to Sanders friendly states. It is looking to me like NY State, Pennsylvania, Connetticutt will decide this race, in that case I favor Joe coming to the convention with the most delegates.

[Quixote1818]

12. Not really. March 10th looks pretty strong for Sanders

This is how betting markets have the next round looking.


Idaho - Sanders
Michigan - Sanders
Mississippi - Biden
Missouri - Sanders but could swing to Biden
North Dakota - Sanders
Washington - Sanders

The southern states Biden is strong in are scattered about, one here, one there, in a sea of strong Sanders states the rest of the way. Pretty Much about as tough for Biden as it possibly could be.

https://www.predictit.org/

[Blue_true]

14. The delegate count from those states don't equal that from Florida, Georgia and Louisiana.

I expect those southern states to be very hostile to Bernie. So coming out of them, I don't see Bernie with much of a lead, if he has one at all. I can see Biden opening up a big lead over Bernie after those three southern states vote. Bernie absolutely killed himself in Florida with his Castro recollections, everyone here is running from him. Florida along will have about 72% of the delegates that Texas will award. It is possible that Bernie won't get any delegates in Florida.

[democrattotheend]

15. I don't think Biden will stay in if he doesn't win South Carolina

The fact that he didn't even try to manage expectations could be a signal that he plans to drop out if he doesn't win there.

[Blue_true]

25. I generally agree. And he should drop out if he doesn't win a state like SC.

Warren and Klobuchar and Steyer should also drop out if they finish as poorly as they have been, they had their chance.

Because of his early success, Buttigieg should stay in at least through Super Tuesday, even if he finishes poorly in SC. Speaking of Buttigieg, I have a business associate that I have to do business with who seems to be coming from a view of homophobia and transphobia, he seems to accept that there are honosexual and transsexual people in the world and they deserve the same rights as the rest of us. The headsnapper was that he is very impressed with Pete and thinks that Pete could be an excellent President and he would happily vote for Pete - he knows that Pete is Gay - I found all of that to be a fascinating case study in human thinking.

[hay rick]

11. Bloomberg helped himself.

More than any other candidate he had something to prove. He didn't need an outstanding debate, he needed to avoid catastrophe. Elizabeth Warren attacked him right at the start for allegedly telling a pregnant employee to "Kill it" but he flatly denied it and her charge came across as an assertion that couldn't be proved or disproved. Warren pushing a questionable attack came across as misandrist and probably hurt her more than him. I give Bloomberg credit for surviving that exchange. The rest of his performance was mediocre- a huge improvement over his first debate.

I don't like Bloomberg- he's not in my top 6- but I think he helped himself more than any other candidate. The moderators let the debate get out of control. I think the debate hurt most of the candidates who had the misfortune to participate.

[Quixote1818]

13. Good observations. Yes he helped himself a bit.

It feel however like the mood of the electorate is not in favor of people who are extremely wealthy. That ship sailed. Hopefully Bloomberg's money can do a bit of damage to Trump though.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Bloomberg's money means nothing if not attached to Bloomberg

Somehow everyone is missing that. Bloomberg's ads are pro-Bloomberg. They are not anti-Trump except in comparison of Bloomberg to Trump. The anti-Trump stuff does not work by itself. He is a known quantity.

Bloomberg definitely helped himself tonight. That aspect is not being reported adequately here, other than in this thread.

[denem]

19. Bloomberg will not be the nominee.

Whatever Sanders might say at the convention, his supporters will bolt if a poster child for Wall Street and 'the billionaire class' gets the nod.

The choice will be between Biden and Warren.

[Laelth]

21. I am still predicting that Bloomberg will get the nomination.

If Sanders doesn't go into the convention with a majority of delegates, I think that all our other candidates will pledge their delegates to Bloomberg to prevent a Sanders nomination.

Of course, at this point, it looks like Sanders could easily cruise into the convention with an actual majority of delegates, but it's still early days.

We shall see what we see.

-Laelth

[NedBraden]

18. Bloomberg and 9/11

Bloomberg made a fool of himself when he stated he was standing on a smoking pile after 9/11.

The only notable thing he did with regard to 9/11 is accuse Det. James ZADROGA ( of ZADROGA ACT) of dying from drug abuse not of 9/11 sickness.


Bloomberg is a fucking real piece of work ;now trying to use 9/11 to his personal advantage.


He does not get to do that. Not after the way he disparaged Det Zadroga after he died.

[AngelicaHora]

17. Unfortunately, I don't think so

The chaos of it all was the main story. Everyone who already has a candidate was probably happy with how their candidate did.

So after Super Tuesday I wouldn't be surprised if the only ones left standing are three very old men. Lord help us.

[Laelth]

20. I don't think so.

Joe gave a solid performance, sure, but he's been tanking in SC polls of late and Steyer, believe it or not, has been working the state hard and cutting into Biden's support.

Looks like Sanders will win the state. If he doesn't, he'll be a close second, and then Sanders will clean house on Super Tuesday thanks to five years of serious work courting the Latino vote. Those who don't want Sanders to be our nominee are in for a rude awakening on Super Tuesday. Right now, the trajectory is all Sanders.

We shall see what we see.



-Laelth

[ucrdem]

23. Biden did well in Las Vegas too

so that's two strong debates in a row with just enough time remaining to have an effect on Super Tuesday before being forgotten. So the two together could change the game, especially now that the gun issue is finally on the table and not looking good for Bernie.

[Johonny]

24. I think it helped Biden hang onto SC lead. Held the Bernie bus from a pre-super tuesday sweep.

It hurt Bloomberg because he did well, but isn't on the SC ticket. A Biden win pre-super tuesday is not what Bloomberg needed. And of course, I think it demonstrated once again Warren is a strong VP candidate willing to be an attack dog for the top of the ticket. She would destroy Pence in a debate. As for the stuck in the middle candidates, I have no idea. I think most are gone after Super Tuesday.

[C_U_L8R]

26. It may be too late. I don't know.

I hope the center can get its act together. I feel like we’ve been trumped.