Joe Biden's the only Democrat who can stop Sanders

[tritsofme]

Josh Kraushaar
...The Biden comeback playbook would look something like this: First, win South Carolina, where he’s leading in all public polls by varying margins. A South Carolina victory would underscore Biden’s abiding support among African-American voters, who will be playing a critical role in the subsequent Super Tuesday contests. If demographics is destiny, Biden would have a fighting chance to win the six Southern contests on March 3, in states ranging from Alabama to Texas to Virginia. That outcome would cement him as the leading moderate alternative, potentially forcing other challengers to drop out.

The map would look a lot friendlier for Biden if he’s able to survive Super Tuesday. Florida, which holds its delegate-rich primary on March 17, is a state where Sanders is unusually vulnerable. His consistently weak support among seniors, his criticism of Israel, and his recent comments defending parts of Fidel Castro’s communist record would suggest he’d suffer an embarrassing defeat. He’s only at 17 percent in the statewide polling average, all conducted before his latest string of gaffes.

Biden would also be well-positioned to win the critical battleground of Arizona that same day. In a Democratic electorate filled with seniors and college-educated suburbanites, Sanders would face an uphill battle. He’d need to mobilize Hispanic voters, who overwhelmingly supported him in Nevada, to counter the unfavorable demographic realities in the state. He won only 41 percent of the vote there against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary, a sign of fundamental weakness with key voting groups.

The next week, Georgia is the only state holding a primary. With one of the largest African-American voting blocs in the country, it would offer Biden an opportunity for a narrative-changing landslide victory—if he’s able to make the race a one-on-one contest by then.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/704925?unlock=MT28PMHWI02UAXOG

It sure is looking that way.

[blm]

1. To do that he needs Warren to stay in

[squirecam]

6. If she doesn't win a single state on Super Tuesday

She has no rationale for staying in.

[tritsofme]

7. Amy should get out too.

Winning at home isn’t particularly impressive, and her prospects are not promising in any other upcoming state.

[squirecam]

13. Is Warren going to win Massachusetts?

Last I checked Bernie was ahead.

[tritsofme]

17. It wouldn't be impressive even if she won.

She also has no path to the nomination. To the extent she eats into Sanders support, the continuation of her failed campaign doesn’t bother me much.

[Liberty Belle]

20. She could in a brokered convention, if they seek a compromise candidate.

[Sloumeau]

2. I tell you one thing, a Sanders/Biden battle looks much better than a Sanders/Bloomberg battle. nt

[Celerity]

8. [phone]

[Amishman]

16. +infinity

Bloomberg winning the nomination would invite a level of political ideological introspection on my part that I'd much rather avoid.

[SCantiGOP]

3. What if the accurate post title should be

“Bernie Sanders’s the only Democrat who can stop Trump”?

[Moderateguy]

4. 😆

[Celerity]

9. then we need to talk about your definition of 'accurate' nt

[msongs]

10. your title contains a factual error :-) nt

[oasis]

5. Biden dominated the 2/25 debate. An SC win will continue his momentum.

I believe he can sew it all up shortly after clobbering Bernie in Super Tuesday.

[OliverQ]

12. Biden did not dominate the debate tonight.

What momentum? He hasn't won anything yet.

[oasis]

14. On Chris Cuomo's CNN hour, SC's own Bakari Sellers said Joe would

win in South Carolina by 11 to 15 points. Bakari knows SC and its AA voters.

That's what I call momentum.

[ramen]

19. If he does then he deserves it.

Momentum from losing three primaries to winning one is objectively momentum, but I'm not sure it will cut it for the GE. If it is conclusive from exit polling that Sanders will not resonate with the African American electorate then my support of Sanders will become questionable, and will make me reconsider. But momentum from losing to losing a little less doesn't gice me fuzzies for November.

[SCantiGOP]

23. ....but now you have entered

The Twilight Zone.

[Beartracks]

11. We certainly need someone in the general election with big coattails. So, if it's Biden...

... that is way more than okay. And more and more I think you're right: it needs to be Biden. Regardless, Democrats can and should keep pushing for tuition, M4A, etc. through Congress because THAT fight does NOT end even if Sanders or Warren is not the Democratic candidate/President.

Give the next President the most progressive/liberal Congress that is humanly possible, and press on!

============

[mdelaguna]

28. +1

[fallout87]

15. Strong prediction

Especially for a guy who hasn't won a primary yet...

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. Biden doesn't have a chance unless Pete & Amy drop out before Super Tuesday

And even then it’s a slim chance, as Bernie will likely have a delegate lead the others can’t pass.

[dumptrump1]

21. with whose money?

Only Bloomberg can buy what is needed to muzzle a mass movement like bernie's!

[bigbrother05]

30. If the SC/Super Tues scenario breaks for Joe, Mike could back him

If Bloomberg is being honest that beating Trump is his goal and he's worried about Bernie, throwing his weight (money) behind Joe might be the smart move at that point.

As the OP stated, a strong move by Joe in the next week would close the delegate gap and that momentum coupled with a favorable map could mean there is a negligible delegate delta by the convention.

A plurality of a few dozen delegates on the first ballot does not entitle you to get the nod without a floor fight.

[blue-wave]

22. Sure is looking this way

And more importantly, we Biden people have been saying all along that Joe is the only candidate who can defeat Trump at the polls.

[AlexSFCA]

24. I am terrified of Sanders winning the nomination

I don’t see him beating trump unless there is a significant and rapid downturn of the economy before election, way too risky. From everything I read, he is McGovern 72. Amy and Pete - time to drop out is the night of SC primary BEFORE super Tuesday. BS is leading in large states but not if we coalesce behind Biden. BS has been getting latino vote and they have so much to lose if trump gets 2nd term.
Here is a likely scenario and it maybe too late after super tuesday:
BS wins the nomination, loses to trump and costs us house too, not to mention many state and local elections. Trump gets to replace Ginsburg and Breyer with far right justices during his second term plus continue reshaping federal courts across the country so that the vast majority of circuits of appeals become far right. It’s not just Roe v. Wade - that’s no longer the goal, it is not just eliminating the right to choose but criminalizing women for abortions. Needless to say, same sex marriage can be overturned in its entirety and ACA completely overturned. Dreamers will be deported and so many millions of undocumented. Legal immigration will be cut to bare minimum. It will be oligarchy and even if trump supporters then decide to turn on him, it will be too late to change anything. The power he’ll be gaining is unreal - House, Senate, SC - all acting as part of white house and not separate branch, plus DOJ, FBI, etc. serving his politics not public. He can use FBI resources to crack down on dissent, target dem organizations, etc.

[squirecam]

27. Biden needs Amy to win Minnesota.

Otherwise Bernie would.

[Cha]

25. Kick

[redstatebluegirl]

26. Kick

[FloridaBlues]

29. The exit ramp will be next Wednesday for some candidates

Right after Super Tuesday. Wouldn't you think?

[tritsofme]

31. If they were smart, they would drop out Saturday night.

[musicman65]

32. We can only hope

[FloridaBlues]

33. True that!