CNN: This new South Carolina poll is very bad news for Joe Biden

[Quixote1818]

(CNN)Bernie Sanders just might win the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

That's the real headline out of a new poll conducted by NBC and Marist College that shows Sanders trailing longtime South Carolina front-runner Joe Biden by a narrow 27% to 23% margin, with five days of campaigning remaining. (Several recent polls have suggested a similar tightening.)

While the top-line number draws the eye, it's a series of other questions sprinkled throughout the poll that seem to suggest a path to a massive upset victory does, in fact, exist.
Consider:
1) Roughly 1 in 3 Biden backers in the poll (32%) said they might vote for another candidate on Saturday. Just more than 1 in 10 Sanders supporters (12%) said the same. That's broadly consistent with what we've seen throughout this primary to date; Sanders has the most committed support, while Biden's has been among the least committed.
2) This poll was in the field from February 18 to February 21. On February 19, the top six Democrats appeared at a debate in Las Vegas. Because of that, the pollsters broke out interviews they conducted before the debate and those they conducted after it. In the pre-debate sample, Biden led Sanders by 10. In the post-debate sample, the two candidates were dead even. That suggests momentum was moving in Sanders' direction even before he won a surprisingly sweeping victory in the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.
3) Among voters with a clear candidate preference or those who had already voted, more than 7 in 10 (72%) Bernie-backers said they "strongly supported" him. Among those with preference for Biden that strong support was at 61%. Again, a clear passion/enthusiasm gap there.

More: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/politics/joe-biden-south-carolina-poll-bernie-sanders/index.html

[Poeraria]

1. The GOP's favorite candidate, Bernie Sanders, is benefiting from their support.

Hopefully enough Democrats show up to the polls to overcome Bernie voting Republicans.

But this poll is before Joe's masterful debate performance, and before the Clyburn endorsement.

[guillaumeb]

2. Welcome to DU.

When you write of "Bernie voting Republicans", have you considered that Republicans might also vote for other Democratic candidates who are not named Sanders?

[Poeraria]

4. Not in the SC, Open Primary they wont.

The plan to flood the polling places to cast a vote for Sanders is openly discussed on local talk radio, and on the national airwaves.

In the general, however, I agree with you. Joe will attract many fed up Republicans. Should Bernie get the nod, those voters will just stay home.

[guillaumeb]

5. We are speculating about future behavior.

In my view, open primaries invite this sort of political interference.

[Dennis Donovan]

3. Cillizza: This new South Carolina poll is very bad news for Joe Biden

I fixed your subject line for you.

Chris Cillizza is not to be taken seriously. Google him to see what his peers think of him.

[dalton99a]

7. Just about the dumbest "analyst" they have at CNN

[uponit7771]

6. Old Stale poll, PPP is new and lower MOE

[brush]

8. Try this poll from SC (Clemson) that says Biden is up by 18 points.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287585514

[honest.abe]

9. Good grief.. that poll is stale... conducted Feb. 18 to Feb. 21

The latest ones show Biden up in the teens.