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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:24 PM Feb 2020

538: 'What Our Forecast Says About Every Super Tuesday State'

Sanders is forecasted to rack up wins on Super Tuesday
The percent chance each Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest on Super Tuesday, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Feb. 26, 2020



https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-our-forecast-says-about-every-super-tuesday-state/?cid=clicksource_4380645_4_three_posts_card_hed

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
29 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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538: 'What Our Forecast Says About Every Super Tuesday State' (Original Post) left-of-center2012 Feb 2020 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #1
Oh no! Socialism! el_bryanto Feb 2020 #2
The only recent poll out of VA is 22/22 Bloomberg/Sanders TwilightZone Feb 2020 #3
you mean sanders/bloomberg? eom counting Feb 2020 #9
Yes, thanks. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #18
Yes, VA was the surprise spread there. JudyM Feb 2020 #22
I hope 538 is wrong Kitchari Feb 2020 #4
I'm for Liz, but if not her, Go Bernie Go! Magoo48 Feb 2020 #19
Awesome! harun Feb 2020 #5
Klobuchar is +6 on Sanders in both recent polls. 538 has it as a toss-up. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #6
They explain their methodology here: Cal Carpenter Feb 2020 #11
"We adjust state polls based on trends in national polls" TwilightZone Feb 2020 #15
15%. That's what it is all about Cal Carpenter Feb 2020 #7
Bookmarking. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #8
Utah 87, now I know this is a crock of ****) Butterflylady Feb 2020 #10
Bernie won Utah over Hillary in 2016. Mariana Feb 2020 #12
Based on what? Nt USALiberal Feb 2020 #14
Sanders has a big lead there in the only recent poll. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #16
I believe it RhodeIslandOne Feb 2020 #27
a large loss by Sanders in SC may have some effect on this, although so many have already voted Celerity Feb 2020 #13
One poll has him at 13%. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #17
not sure about it AlexSFCA Feb 2020 #20
Similarly, if Biden underperforms in SC, that could affect these results too (n/t) thesquanderer Feb 2020 #24
this is true, but that PPP poll now looks like less of an outlier, and Clyburn is a boss, so his Celerity Feb 2020 #25
It does not matter how many states a candidate wins on ST or at any other time localroger Feb 2020 #21
Democrats like liberalism IronLionZion Feb 2020 #23
We. Are. So. Fucked. nt Codeine Feb 2020 #26
Don't worry RhodeIslandOne Feb 2020 #28
If Sanders takes California and Texas, it may be game over. Sympthsical Feb 2020 #29

Response to left-of-center2012 (Original post)

 

el_bryanto

(11,804 posts)
2. Oh no! Socialism!
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:29 PM
Feb 2020

I hope Sanders does well though - i'm torn between him and Warren, Biden is probably my number 3 as Pete and Bloomberg don't represent what i think the Democratic party should be about.

Bryant

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
3. The only recent poll out of VA is 22/22 Bloomberg/Sanders
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:31 PM
Feb 2020

Yet 538 has Sanders with a 48% chance of winning to Bloomberg's 27%.

As has been the case for a while now, momentum seems to be a very significant factor in these calculations, perhaps even more of a factor than the actual polls. I'm sure there are reasons for it, but it seems a bit odd.

It's also driving the narrative, which I'm not sure should be the case.

On edit: I guess it makes sense in the context of the national race and BB's trend downward. Just surprised that it's that much of a spread.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

counting

(69 posts)
9. you mean sanders/bloomberg? eom
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:36 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
18. Yes, thanks.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:56 PM
Feb 2020

Corrected.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JudyM

(29,122 posts)
22. Yes, VA was the surprise spread there.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 05:34 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Kitchari

(2,157 posts)
4. I hope 538 is wrong
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:31 PM
Feb 2020

but thank you for posting this

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Magoo48

(4,660 posts)
19. I'm for Liz, but if not her, Go Bernie Go!
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:58 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
6. Klobuchar is +6 on Sanders in both recent polls. 538 has it as a toss-up.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:34 PM
Feb 2020

That's...curious.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cal Carpenter

(4,959 posts)
11. They explain their methodology here:
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:39 PM
Feb 2020
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/

I copy/pasted a few bullet points that relate to your comment:

Differentiator 1: We adjust state polls based on trends in national polls

Differentiator 2: We adjust for house effects. “House effects” are when certain pollsters consistently show better results for certain candidates.

Differentiator 3: Our average adjusts more quickly after major events

-----------------------

I will add this, in my own view the main thing these poll aggregators want is to be right. So while their shit is always flawed, they are adjusting their models constantly because their credibility depends on people thinking they were right in their predictions, or close to it..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
15. "We adjust state polls based on trends in national polls"
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:50 PM
Feb 2020

That might make sense in most places, but in Klobuchar's home state? They're favoring Sanders by 6%.

They've already admitted to making a couple of supposedly "minor" errors in the calculations necessitating adjustments this cycle since that explanation was posted, so it's difficult to not wonder if there are still issues inherent in the process.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cal Carpenter

(4,959 posts)
7. 15%. That's what it is all about
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:35 PM
Feb 2020

When you scroll through the poll averages for most of those states, most of the candidates aren't at 15% or are only barely there. That's gonna make all the difference in the results because they don't get any delegates if they get less than 15%.

I'm pretty sure Biden will get a good number of delegates on Tuesday, and I know Bernie will. But if Biden doesn't quite get 15% in many states, and the other candidates don't either, Bernie is gonna come out with a huge delegate lead. Just CA alone, if no one else even places, will be huge for him. Texas has a huge number of delegates too, and it looks real close there between Biden & Bernie.

Just a couple percent here and there can make a huge difference!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Butterflylady

(3,523 posts)
10. Utah 87, now I know this is a crock of ****)
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:36 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

RhodeIslandOne

(5,042 posts)
27. I believe it
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 08:19 PM
Feb 2020

A state that has no chance of going blue in the general? It's fitting.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Celerity

(42,674 posts)
13. a large loss by Sanders in SC may have some effect on this, although so many have already voted
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:48 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
17. One poll has him at 13%.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:55 PM
Feb 2020

That would make for an interesting discussion. 538's models seem very dependent on trends and momentum. If Sanders doesn't even make the threshold in SC, does the forecast make a big swing the other way similar to the one it made after IA/NH?

Probably not because of national polling, but it probably shouldn't have swung hard after two states, either.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

AlexSFCA

(6,137 posts)
20. not sure about it
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 03:59 PM
Feb 2020

it may mobilize his supporters even more in other primaries. That’s why time to coalesce is right now, not after super tuesday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,955 posts)
24. Similarly, if Biden underperforms in SC, that could affect these results too (n/t)
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 06:41 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Celerity

(42,674 posts)
25. this is true, but that PPP poll now looks like less of an outlier, and Clyburn is a boss, so his
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 07:02 PM
Feb 2020

endorsement is a hammer blow in Biden's favour

I am 80% sure Biden wins Sc now, and its 50/50 in he wins by a big margin

would LOVE to see Bernie under 15 and thus shut out for the most part or totally

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

localroger

(3,605 posts)
21. It does not matter how many states a candidate wins on ST or at any other time
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 04:13 PM
Feb 2020

The Democratic primary is not winner-take-all. All that matters is how many delegates a candidate collects, including delegates from states the candidate "lost." Obama made good use of this in 2008 as he had a full-time staff member looking for delegate pickup opportunities everywhere in the nation, and campaigning hard for them even in states he "couldn't win." As a result even though ST was a "blowout for Clinton" with her winning nearly all the ST states, she didn't win them by enough to overcome Obama's lead in the delegate count.

So this chart is completely useless. What we need to know is by how much of a margin are those states likely to be won, and what the range of likely delegate counts is. A candidate can win most of the states but by narrow margins and still lose if their opponent won a few (particularly larger) states by a large margin. And that's without even figuring in things like qualifying margins, superdelegates, or a brokered convention.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

RhodeIslandOne

(5,042 posts)
28. Don't worry
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 08:21 PM
Feb 2020

I'm sure Bernie's supporters will be just as reasonable with non members of the Democratic party when they say there's no way in hell they'll vote for a socialist.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Sympthsical

(8,936 posts)
29. If Sanders takes California and Texas, it may be game over.
Wed Feb 26, 2020, 08:21 PM
Feb 2020

Of course, that would entirely depend on the margins. He’s doing very well in California, but Texas is an iffier prospect.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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