Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum538: 'What Our Forecast Says About Every Super Tuesday State'
Sanders is forecasted to rack up wins on Super TuesdayThe percent chance each Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest on Super Tuesday, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Feb. 26, 2020
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-our-forecast-says-about-every-super-tuesday-state/?cid=clicksource_4380645_4_three_posts_card_hed
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to left-of-center2012 (Original post)
BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.
el_bryanto
(11,804 posts)I hope Sanders does well though - i'm torn between him and Warren, Biden is probably my number 3 as Pete and Bloomberg don't represent what i think the Democratic party should be about.
Bryant
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)Yet 538 has Sanders with a 48% chance of winning to Bloomberg's 27%.
As has been the case for a while now, momentum seems to be a very significant factor in these calculations, perhaps even more of a factor than the actual polls. I'm sure there are reasons for it, but it seems a bit odd.
It's also driving the narrative, which I'm not sure should be the case.
On edit: I guess it makes sense in the context of the national race and BB's trend downward. Just surprised that it's that much of a spread.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
counting
(69 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)Corrected.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JudyM
(29,122 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Kitchari
(2,157 posts)but thank you for posting this
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Magoo48
(4,660 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
harun
(11,348 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)That's...curious.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)I copy/pasted a few bullet points that relate to your comment:
Differentiator 1: We adjust state polls based on trends in national polls
Differentiator 2: We adjust for house effects. House effects are when certain pollsters consistently show better results for certain candidates.
Differentiator 3: Our average adjusts more quickly after major events
-----------------------
I will add this, in my own view the main thing these poll aggregators want is to be right. So while their shit is always flawed, they are adjusting their models constantly because their credibility depends on people thinking they were right in their predictions, or close to it..
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)That might make sense in most places, but in Klobuchar's home state? They're favoring Sanders by 6%.
They've already admitted to making a couple of supposedly "minor" errors in the calculations necessitating adjustments this cycle since that explanation was posted, so it's difficult to not wonder if there are still issues inherent in the process.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)When you scroll through the poll averages for most of those states, most of the candidates aren't at 15% or are only barely there. That's gonna make all the difference in the results because they don't get any delegates if they get less than 15%.
I'm pretty sure Biden will get a good number of delegates on Tuesday, and I know Bernie will. But if Biden doesn't quite get 15% in many states, and the other candidates don't either, Bernie is gonna come out with a huge delegate lead. Just CA alone, if no one else even places, will be huge for him. Texas has a huge number of delegates too, and it looks real close there between Biden & Bernie.
Just a couple percent here and there can make a huge difference!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasTowelie
(111,320 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Butterflylady
(3,523 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mariana
(14,849 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)A state that has no chance of going blue in the general? It's fitting.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(42,674 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,342 posts)That would make for an interesting discussion. 538's models seem very dependent on trends and momentum. If Sanders doesn't even make the threshold in SC, does the forecast make a big swing the other way similar to the one it made after IA/NH?
Probably not because of national polling, but it probably shouldn't have swung hard after two states, either.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)it may mobilize his supporters even more in other primaries. Thats why time to coalesce is right now, not after super tuesday.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(42,674 posts)endorsement is a hammer blow in Biden's favour
I am 80% sure Biden wins Sc now, and its 50/50 in he wins by a big margin
would LOVE to see Bernie under 15 and thus shut out for the most part or totally
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
localroger
(3,605 posts)The Democratic primary is not winner-take-all. All that matters is how many delegates a candidate collects, including delegates from states the candidate "lost." Obama made good use of this in 2008 as he had a full-time staff member looking for delegate pickup opportunities everywhere in the nation, and campaigning hard for them even in states he "couldn't win." As a result even though ST was a "blowout for Clinton" with her winning nearly all the ST states, she didn't win them by enough to overcome Obama's lead in the delegate count.
So this chart is completely useless. What we need to know is by how much of a margin are those states likely to be won, and what the range of likely delegate counts is. A candidate can win most of the states but by narrow margins and still lose if their opponent won a few (particularly larger) states by a large margin. And that's without even figuring in things like qualifying margins, superdelegates, or a brokered convention.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
IronLionZion
(45,269 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Codeine
(25,586 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)I'm sure Bernie's supporters will be just as reasonable with non members of the Democratic party when they say there's no way in hell they'll vote for a socialist.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sympthsical
(8,936 posts)Of course, that would entirely depend on the margins. Hes doing very well in California, but Texas is an iffier prospect.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided