New Morning Call PA poll Sanders only candidate beating Trump

[Nanjeanne]

Link to tweet

[DanTex]

1. Pretty soon the anti-Bernie people will be all out of talking points.

[Butterflylady]

45. That PA poll

Is really off. I live in a very red part of state. We have a very large amount of Pennsylvania dutch democrats. They are not Sanders fans. They're for Biden.

[tblue37]

78. I used to live in Avoca--from 1963 to 1970, when I married & moved to Kansas. nt

[tblue37]

81. Which city?

[tblue37]

84. Nope, but that sounds amazing! I am jealous! nt

[tblue37]

105. I also prefer animals to most people. I have some dear friends, but quality matters more than

quantity, and I am reclusive by nature.

[HarlanPepper]

87. Sounds really working class.

[yankeepants]

80. Russia much?

[totodeinhere]

70. With all due respect to your opinion, I will take the results of a scientific poll

over your anecdotal evidence. Of course sometimes polls can be wrong. We shall see.

[JudyM]

77. It's an A+ rated polling firm (by 538]. Not many of those.

[Demsrule86]

2. Completely laughable. I lived in PA and it borders wgphere we live now.

Sanders loses 35 states and the house.

[Autumn]

4. Got any links?

[Demsrule86]

10. Links for what? PA wont vote for a socialist.

[Autumn]

14. Other states will. You keep posting that

Sanders loses 35 states and the house.

No links? Just your thought since "PA wont vote for a socialist." Pa is only 1 state, not 35. I can see you being unsure of your one state but not the other 34.

[Demsrule86]

62. WE We lose PA, MI and WI and we are toast...Sanders has already lost Florida...God knows what other

horrors await us in the general.

[OliverQ]

30. Bernie isn't actually a socialist

and yet he polls better when he calls himself that then when he calls himself a Democrat.

People on this forum don't seem to know what a Socialist actually is.

[George II]

46. You might want to tell him that:

[Perseus]

95. 1989...please stop this...What was Biden doing around that time?

Ahh yes, the Anita Hill hearing (1991)...should we pin it on Biden on how badly he treated Anita Hill, how he acted more like a republican than a Democrat? No we should not, many years have passed and Biden is a different person now, he is a man of character who has dedicated his life to try (not always with success) to make Democracy stronger in this country, but we could continue talking about Anita Hill, we could also continue talking about his stances on busing, just like Kamala Harris pointed out.

It is a game if you want to play it, but the real game should be to unite us all, not to throw stones at your own, not to eat your own, we will have enough of the GOP propaganda machine to fight, regardless of who wins the nomination, so please stop.

[ahoysrcsm]

113. 2019 work better for ya.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/12/watch_live_bernie_sanders_speech_defining_democratic_socialism_as_the_only_way_to_defeat_oligarchy.html

[Butterflylady]

48. Evidently you think we're all dumb. We're not

What a socialist is has been pointed out to all of us several times and you know what, we can read.

[OliverQ]

51. And yet you still think Bernie follows Marxist Socialism.

[Demsrule86]

65. His followers are spouting Marxist Socialism doctrine at rallies...great commercial fodder.

I am not a socialist. I am not a communist. I am a Democrat. I am proud of my party and support my party period. Sanders gets my vote only in a general...but I think we lose big...probably the house too.

[OliverQ]

67. You're confusing labels.

Socialism and Communism are economic theories. Democrat is a political party. They are not the same thing.

You guys keep saying we lose big, yet you can't present a single piece of evidence indicating that. Bernie is polling the best in most polls. He has the largest base. Most Democrats think he has the best chance of beating Trump.

A moderate is more likely to lose big because they will suppress a lot of votes, especially young people.

[Demsrule86]

71. The Democratic platform is not socialist nor communist. I am a Democrat and a capitalist.

And there is both a socialist and a communist party by the way.

[Perseus]

103. "Socialism" is just a theory, there are no "Socialists" countries in the world

Some communist dictators like to call themselves "Socialists" because it sounds better, but "Socialism" is just a theory that is used very effectively to lure the "uneducated", and in the case of the USA to create panic on the "uneducated" who do not understand what "Socialism" or "Communism", or even "Democracy" really means.

Yes, there may be a small bunch of people who believe they are in a "Socialist" or a "Communist" party in the USA, it is a minute number, there are more White Supremacists around.

When you accuse someone of being anything it is always good to provide your reasons for your accusations.

Sanders wants to model his government from the Scandinavian "Social-Democratic" governments, which are "Capitalist" societies who enjoy regulated capitalism and markets to avoid the abuses we enjoy today here in the USA. There is regulation for bonuses to CEOs, and salaries for high executives, that doesn't mean they don't make good money, they do, but not the exorbitant amounts USA executives enjoy.

For someone to believe that an Exxon CEO deserves a $400 million bonus in one year is ludicrous, that person did not create EXXON, he is just an employee, and who pays for that bonus? we do when we fill our gas tanks...anyway, enough said.

I hope that all of you critics start doing so with proof, and if Bernie happens to win the nomination that he has your full support because four more years of the creature will be devastating to the USA and the World, take your pick, "Destruction" or the "Pseudo Socialism" you like to point out without arguments to backup your assessment of Sanders.

[Demsrule86]

116. I hope that Sanders doesn't win the nomination as he calls himself a socialist and that is a sure

way of losing the general.

[Perseus]

98. I think you missed a few paragraphs because if you read it all you will find he is a

"Social-Democrat", not a "Socialist", but it would be interesting to understand why you consider him a socialist, is it possible you could layout your analysis and conclusions on how you determined he is a "Socialist"? It would help many of us.

[MontanaMama]

59. BS calls himself a socialist

but apparently he is not. He runs as a Democrat but he’s not. Polls be damned. We saw how wrong they were in 2016.

[zackymilly]

64. Yeah, let's not believe what Bernie says about himself. n/t

[Demsrule86]

63. You should tell folks who are given the microphone at his rallies that ...and I am thinking he is

actually...didn't use to. No matter what, he will where the label after the GOP is done. Moderate Indies will run away in droves...

[Perseus]

88. And Sanders is a "Socialist" because????

Please tells us, do start by defining socialism so that we can understand.

And all this time I thought Sanders was a "Social-Democrat", but thanks to your one liner my eyes are open.

[Demsrule86]

117. Ask Sanders...he calls himself a socialist.

[Demsrule86]

55. Go to 270 to win...I have posted many state graphics...Sanders will lose the blue wall states.

But in my opinion, he will lose many more states that we usually carry and likely the house.

[Cal Carpenter]

7. Well, this is the 2nd poll in a row with similar results

So, as flawed as all polls can be, there's still a pattern emerging.

[apcalc]

12. I see it too here in PA..seems everyone I know

Is coalescing around Biden.

[Demsrule86]

57. Well that is good.

I sent Joe money...will again. Don't know what the big donors are thinking.

[ebbie15644]

35. yep, I'm from Western PA and no way does Bernie win here

[totodeinhere]

72. I think it's pretty common for supporters of a particular candidate to disbelieve

polls that do not reflect well on the candidate of their choice. And everybody does it. We have recently seen Sanders supporters doubting that recent South Carolina poll that shows Biden up by 18 points. And of course polls can be wrong, but we shall find out one way or the other soon enough.

But having said that, shouldn't we all take heart from that poll? If Bernie indeed does become our nominee than we would want him to win Pennsylvania.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Right wing poll skewed by GOP responses

Every Trumper with one brain cell knows to answer a poll, Sanders! because that's the opponent they want to reelect Trump.

[Nanjeanne]

8. Oh of course.

[bucolic_frolic]

9. Yes, of course

Muhlenberg poll with Morning Call

Totally conservative sauce to help GOP. Been that way for 40 years!

[liskddksil]

28. I worked at this polling institute for 5 years. Completely non-partisan. nt

[bucolic_frolic]

37. Always described as far back as 1988

as a conservative leaning poll, and its numbers were more Republican-leaning than other contemporary polls. Just saying.

[liskddksil]

44. You might be thinking of a different college. Muhlenberg didn't start until

early 2000's. A rated by 538 as well.

[OliverQ]

33. Really? Because Dems did the same thing in 2016.

They pushed Trump to be the candidate because they figured he'd be easy to beat.

Even Moscow Mitch is warning his GOP colleagues to not assume Bernie would be easy to beat. McConnell is evil but he's not dumb.

[TwilightZone]

41. It's a solid polling organization.

538 has it rated A+ with only a slight right bias and 84% correctly called races. That's about as high as it gets.

Of note, all of the results are within the MOE.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6786445/FULL-RESULTS-Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College.pdf

[George II]

13. If they went heavy for trump in 2016, why would they not again?

[thesquanderer]

18. Because the alternative is Bernie instead of Hillary.

The post said "My union went heavy for obama, heavy for bernie, and then heavy for trump" -- meaning they went heavy for Bernie against Hillary, and they went heavy for Trump against Hillary. (And the latter less enthusiastically if they are indeed "itching to vote for bernie again.&quot What the scenarios share is not who they voted for, but who they voted against.

There were a lot of people who reluctantly voted for Trump because they really didn't want Hillary. Give them an alternative they find more appealing, and they'll gladly switch away from Trump, many of his voters didn't really like him so much in the first place, they just liked Hillary even less.

[George II]

20. I suppose that's why Sanders got half the votes in New Hampshire than he got previously?

[thesquanderer]

22. It was a factor, yes. He got more votes when he was the alternative to Hillary.

So similarly, he has the potential to get more votes than Hillary did in November, if he is the alternative to Trump. Because a lot of people really didn't like Hillary or Trump, and their vote came down to who they disliked less. Put up a candidate who is more well-liked than Hillary was, you'll have a better chance of getting some of those reluctant Trump voters to vote for you. So indeed, the reason he did worse in NH in 2020 against the field of Dems is very consistent with a reason he could do better than Hillary did in a November matchup against Trump.

[W_HAMILTON]

15. Which union is that?

[Tom Rinaldo]

29. A lot of people are heavily invested in refusing to hear this. n/t

[Cal Carpenter]

6. Second poll in a row where Sanders beats Trump in PA with widest margin

There was a Univ of WI poll a few days ago.

Good sign.

[samnsara]

11. we are fucked

[Cal Carpenter]

17. The current frontrunner is polling best against Trump in a swing state

Shouldnt that be a good thing?

[OliverQ]

34. Apparently losing in polls against Trump is the preferred position to be in.

[totodeinhere]

73. I hope that there aren't some DU posters who hate Bernie so much that they would actually

want Trump to win. For God sake, the Devil himself could be our nominee and he would be preferable to Trump.

[OliverQ]

91. From what I've seen here, it wouldn't surprise me.

[Progressive dog]

16. Every number well within the margin of error.

That will change when Trump unleashes the money and the Russians against the nominee. This might interest you since Bernie claims he'll end it. But it is popular in lots of Pennsylvania, since their jobs depend on it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-fracking.html

That is why Bernie cannot win and will likely bring the Democratic house down with him.

[thesquanderer]

21. And if Joe is within the margin of error too, you think they won't unleash...

...the same money and the same Russian assistance against him?

But I agree, the fracking issue could be an additional factor.

[Progressive dog]

115. Right now the Russians are helping Bernie by going after Biden.

When there is a Democratic nominee, the Rusians will help Trump go after that nominee as they are going after Biden now.

[helpisontheway]

19. Bernie is the best against Trump in PA..yeah and pigs fly.nt

[David__77]

23. The polls must be supreme, right?

...

[Clash City Rocker]

85. But only when they support the candidate you like, right?

[SpazzTheCat]

24. Why do we put faith in polls???

The polls all showed Hillary beating Trump by massive margins. How did that work out for us?

There are a lot of Trump supporters who would never admit it publically.

[Nanjeanne]

26. Why do you assume ppl are putting their "faith" in polls? They just provide info for

people of a snapshot in time.

If DU decides polls are completely useless and of no interest to anyone I think we should ALL stop posting them. Even the Biden is ahead ones!

[SpazzTheCat]

31. There are lots of people on here

Using polling to justify Bernies ascendancy.

The polls said Hillary had a 90+ percent chance to beat Trump...up until the point he won.

Bernie's 8 point lead in polling is probably more like a 50point deficit.

[OliverQ]

36. No moderate has won the General Election this century

but you think trying it again will have different results?

[SpazzTheCat]

39. President Obama was/is a moderate

Didn't he win the general election twice?

[OliverQ]

50. He wasn't the moderate in those elections.

He was against McCain and Romney. They were the moderates. Obama was the hope and change outside candidate that nobody thought could win.

[SpazzTheCat]

54. President Obama is absolutely a moderate Democrat

Arguing anything otherwise is intellectually dishonest.

[Nanjeanne]

38. There are a lot of people here using polls to justify Biden's rise and I guarantee if

Pete were performing well in polls you would be using them too. People are entitled to read polls and make their own decisions about the validity. For some people, like me, they show where things stand at a particular point in time. But I read the background info and demographic tabs to educate myself.

Oh and many polls showed Hillary losing to Trump in certain states that had Bernie doing better.

[SpazzTheCat]

42. I agree with you

Everyone has the right to read polls and take what they will from them.

I think the polling is flawed, that's my take away based on the last election. You can absolutely interpret them how you want.

I believe the polling is severely undercounting Trump's supporters just like it did last time. Is that real? I don't know, but we will find out.

[RhodeIslandOne]

32. Thank you

The polls in VA show every Democrat whooping Trump but PA it’s only Bernie ahead.

The fucking polls were trash in ‘16 and they make less sense now.

[uponit7771]

90. That's all the data we got

[SpazzTheCat]

111. Very true

My only point is to view the against Trump comparisons with skepticism given the inaccuracy of polling in the last general election and the tendency for many Trump supporters to remain silent.

I do think they are very useful for gauging the support levels of the various candidates vs Trump. Ie, Bernie is showing the strongest performance vs Trump in most polls; however, that doesn't mean they aren't undercounting the Trump support. These polls are simply saying that Bernie's numbers are showing he could be a stronger candidate against Trump than any of the other candidates.

[Tom Rinaldo]

25. THIS. Bernie is fighting to help working people. A lot of working people know it

Conventional political thinking holds that Bernie can't be elected because "socialist" is a part of Democratic Socialism. Conventional political thinking thinks the public will accept another decade of virtually all wealth flowing to the top in America, just like it has for the last four decades.

Conventional political thinking wrote off Sanders at the start of this campaign season just like they did at the start of the last political campaign cycle. Conventional political thinking thought Hillary Clinton was a shoe in for both the nomination and the presidency. Conventional political thinking thought that Donald Trump would be the easiest candidate for Democrats to beat because he was "unelectable."

Conventional political thinking says that Democrats have to win Pennsylvania. It may finally have one right.

[Under The Radar]

27. Come on! Last week polls showed even Cartman beating Trump

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

43. There must be a concerted effort by the RW to skew these polls. I live in PA

And the zygote-obsessed, racist, xenophobic, 'merica first and the wealthy that use those useful idiots will NEVER vote for Bernie.

Absolutely ridiculous.

[Cosmocat]

47. Yeah

I can't fathom how after the right and mainstream media go on a half year long SOCIALISM screamfest he holds up here.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

52. If this is true, like it feels in Texas too, why are Dems

Supporting the most progressive choice?

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

58. Free stuff promises???

I don't know honestly.

[totodeinhere]

93. You mean like free universal health care for all just like every other major

industrialized nation has? If so then I'm in.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

104. I am for expanding ACA but not for paying higher taxes to have diminished coverage

I am for education plans that increase the size of Pell grants and remove current barriers of access to Pell Grants and to combat the crippling student debt crisis that has handicapped a generation, cutting the cap on student-loan payments by 50% and forgiving loans tax-free after 20 years.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

109. I think if you've lived in the business world in a career, you

realize that going from zero to sixty never flies. It's not pragmatic and it scares people.

Now having a future goal, is not crazy. Universal health care for for all is a great goal. But, if you just said today we don't have it, in 2021 we will, you would be laughed out of any management meeting. Without an in-depth cost analysis and careful transition plan along with constraints and how they would be addressed, no one would even listen to you.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

49. Hope we find a path without PA. If it's shifting away

For all, we are in deep doodoo. Thought PA was supposedly a more centrist state? Not disputing poll, just curious. Seems Dems are very different in different states.

[Botany]

53. Bernie would get hammered in the general election in PA

See all that blue area in PA? That is where they are producing natural gas by hydro-fracking and
that means 10s of thousands of good paying jobs. And lots of jobs are at power plants that use
that hydro fractured gas to produce electricity too.

Hi I'm Bernie vote for me and I'll take your job.

And yes I know that fracking pollutes the ground water, the gas when burned is a greenhouse gas
maker, lots of the gas production companies have stolen millions from the land owners who have
leased their lands for the wells, and that we need to get off fossil fuels too but reality is Bernie
will get hammered in the general election.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

56. The largest non-government employer in Pennsylvania is Healthcare...would lose jobs too

Pennsylvania:

The largest employer in Pennsylvania is the University of Pittsburgh Medical center. UPMC operates 40 academic, community, and specialty hospitals, 700 doctors’ offices and outpatient sites, and employs 87,000 people, according to its website. In 2017, UPMC entered the midstate when it acquired PinnacleHealth.

https://www.pennlive.com/life/2019/03/from-medical-systems-to-universities-and-walmart-the-largest-non-government-employer-in-pa-and-every-other-state.html

[Botany]

66. A vote for Bernie in the primaries is in reality a vote for Trump in the general.

In WW II when the Kamikaze pilots got ready to take off they got their speeders,
a nice shot of sake, and pretty girls waved flowers at them as they took off but
@ the end of the day they were dead. And in helping what Russia and Trump are also
working to do now in making Bernie the nominee is just nuts.

[Nanjeanne]

68. Cool. So we need to, as Dems, support fracking.

[Botany]

69. I never said that.

However publicly supporting a ban on fracking will kill off any chance of winning PA
along with lots of other states too.

[Nanjeanne]

75. Cool. So lie about your stance on fracking in

order to fool people.

Also you make a big assumption that people who live in those areas like having their water polluted.

Oh and Warren is on record in favor of banning fracking.

[BusyBeingBest]

60. See? The circular firing squad debates worked!

Mission accomplished!

[yaesu]

74. I'm 100% sure Bernie could beat tRump but I also think the rest of the candidates could too as long

as we get behind whomever gets the nomination, even in PA.

[JustAnotherGen]

76. A lot can happen between now and November

Also, due to proximity to the Philadelphia Area, Bucks County PA, etc. etc. - I have some hooks into the local activism there.

Regardless of our nominee - we will be taking PA.

I've already got some time on my calendar to help out some of the local democratic committees in PA with Voter Registration. In 2008 I drove people to the polls in the Allentown NJ area (I'm in NJ - about 10 minutes from the border).

We got this. Doesn't matter who - I will step up to get souls to the polls in PA.

[captain queeg]

82. Sorry, not buying it

Hate to remind everyone that all the polls showed Hillary trouncing Trump. And yes I know she beat him in the popular vote. I just don’t put too much faith in the polls especially this far out. They were all saying Biden had a double digit lead a few months ago.

I personally don’t mind Bernie. But right now there seems to be an emotional cloud obscuring things when he is discussed.

[OliverQ]

96. So why do you assume Biden can beat Trump?

[captain queeg]

112. Did I say that? Maybe you should reread my post.

[book_worm]

86. Just as meaningless as when Biden was the one consistently beating Trump

as Bernie people "used" to point out. Besides Biden is within the moe with Bernie (also an argument that Bernie people would use when Bernie was a few points behind Biden vs. Trump).

[uponit7771]

94. ..👍🏼, within MOE Dems need to to be outside of MOE

[uponit7771]

89. Snapshot and not outside of MOE, 3 month gives it to Biden

[deurbano]

92. Margin of error is 5.5 percentage points. Sanders was 5 points ahead of the Orange MAGAt in Nov,

now 3, so like the others, he has lost ground in this poll.

[OliverQ]

97. So by your argument, no Dem can beat Trump?

[deurbano]

106. Of course not! Just providing context for: "PA poll Sanders only candidate beating Trump"

The top candidates are all within the margin of error for beating him or losing to him, and like the others, Sanders has lost ground since the Nov. poll.

I think it is early and we will win PA in the general. But this poll had Clinton ahead by 6 right before the general (in the period from 10/30-11/4/2016), so our nominee will need a bigger lead, outside the margin of error, given the Russian interference we already know is happening, Republican ratf*cking, the partisan weaponization of the Senate, Supreme Court and Executive Branch, voter suppression at the state level and a hackable voting system. (Oh yeah, and a gullible-- to put the best spin on it-- media.)

[Callado119]

99. Wait until they hear about his fracking position...

...he’ll piss away PA just like he pissed away FL...then what is his path? He’ll get destroyed in sunbelt states like AZ and NC...battle ground states would end up being only states Clinton won in 2016..a BS nomination is an automatic win for trump...a BS nomination needs to be stopped..

[Dopers_Greed]

100. Lest we forget

Clinton was up by more at this point in the race.

When Sanders survives the $1billion of artillery in Trump and the Repug's war chest, then we'll talk.

[VMA131Marine]

102. There are three polls of PA covering approximately the same time period

The Muhlenberg poll only has 424 respondents where the Quinnipiac and YouGov polls have 849 and 1171 respectively. Quinnipiac shows most Dems with a sizable lead, YouGov shows Biden and Sanders leading Trump with the rest even. The best result would be to do a weighted average the three polls (only two for Bloomberg) as I have done below. Trump's average support is 44.2%. He's not winning PA with a number like that.

Bloomberg 47.0 44.0 +3.0
Buttigieg 45.2 44.0 +1.2
Klobuchar 45.3 43.0 +2.3
Warren 46.0 45.0 +1.0
Sanders 47.7 44.8 +2.9
Biden 47.6 44.3 +3.3

[muntrv]

107. How many of those are really Trump supporters

trying to prop up Bernie for the GE?

[BusyBeingBest]

108. Not too many. I have family in PA, grew up there, we might

indeed be screwed. This needs to be turned around in a hurry.

[colsohlibgal]

110. If We Stick Together We Can Win With Any Of The Candidates

The scare tactics being used against Bernie and to a lesser extent versus Warren has to do with their progressiveness. Like the term socialism.

It is not in any way Communism. It is an incorrect leap.

Thom Hartmann just talked with a lady born in France. She is amazed by the flack about DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM. People in Europe and Scandinavia living with Democratic Socialism could vote it out but why on earth would they? It is not subject to the scorn and disdain leveled against it by both parties.

Their taxes are a bit higher....but they aren’t going to go bankrupt or deep in debt because of Medical Bills and they don’t have a small percentage of its population with as much or more money than the rest of the population.

[littlemissmartypants]

114. The influence of MOE, Margin of Error, cannot be overstated. I wish this was actually

comforting news but as it stands, considering MOE, it makes me feel more concerned and disappointed than I was before reading it.

I'm pretty sure that we don't want to get comfortable with poll numbers and lose our enthusiasm for getting out the vote. But thank you for sharing it, Nanjeanne. ❤

Go Dems!