Buttigieg plots risky delegate strategy to survive Super Tuesday

[brooklynite]

Politico

Despite a brutal Super Tuesday map unlikely to hand him any statewide wins, the former South Bend mayor is looking to reinforce his claim as a Democratic alternative to Bernie Sanders by racking up delegates in individual congressional districts on Super Tuesday. It’s a national version of Buttigieg’s path to first place in Iowa’s state delegate race — crossing the viability threshold everywhere, pending a recount — which Buttigieg hopes to replicate on Tuesday, when 14 states weigh in on the Democratic primary, despite a splintered field and limited resources.

Buttigieg’s campaign said in a memo that its objective on March 3 is to “minimize” Sanders’ margins and maximize “delegate accumulation by [congressional] district, not states.” Anticipating a drawn-out primary process, Buttigieg is looking to survive deeper into the calendar, making it to mid-March contests in the Midwest that might provide more opportunities for him.

Buttigieg is focusing on selected districts in smaller media markets throughout the country to rack up delegates, from Austin, Texas and its suburbs to San Diego, northern Maine, and other locales where Democrats flipped House seats in 2018. But it’s a risky strategy to maintain momentum, and that risk is born out of necessity.

Buttigieg doesn’t have the money to compete more broadly across the 14 Super Tuesday states, like Bernie Sanders and especially Mike Bloomberg, nor is he expected to set up Super Tuesday by finishing strongly on Saturday in South Carolina, where he’s struggled to gain any traction among voters of color. He’s not wading into more favorable demographic territory, like Joe Biden in the other Southern states coming up. And he’s not getting the benefit of home-state primaries on March 3 like Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren.

But a candidate can still “run up the score with district-level delegates, especially when there are still so many candidates up and kicking,” said Ace Smith, a California-based Democratic strategist who works for Kamala Harris. Smith noted that the strategy has sustained successful presidential campaigns in the past: “It’s the Dukakis strategy,” he said, referencing the 1988 Democratic primary.

[sweetloukillbot]

1. Dukakis shouldn't necessarily be used as a reference for strategy nt

[dsc]

5. His primary strategy was nothing short of brilliant

it was only after the person who developed that strategy was fired for lying about giving out videos of Biden plagerizing Kinnick that his strategy tanked.

[Butterflylady]

8. Absolutely

I was watching that race and hoping and praying he could pull it off, but it was beyond horrific.

[Laelth]

31. Dukakis won the nomination.

What am I missing here?



-Laelth

[jimfields33]

2. This could have worked if he started a few months ago

But 5 days???? Good luck. I wish him well.

[Demsrule86]

3. He should get out...he only helps Sanders who won't win a general...for the good of the nation.

If he contributes to helping elect Sanders and Trump wins...he is dead to me in any future primary. He should get out and consider his future with the party..what will benefit him.

[OliverQ]

10. Please stop posting that Bernie is guaranteed to lose in the General.

Absolutely no evidence supports that conclusion. In fact, all evidence says the opposite.

[squirecam]

12. Look at the Larry Sabado post

There is evidence Sanders is the worst choice to lead the ticket in the swing states.

we do think we know enough about the potential weaknesses of Sanders that our reaction to his nomination, if it happens, would be to shift some of the Electoral College against him and also to look at Trump as a small favorite for November.

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-sanders-tax/

[OliverQ]

14. Why would I care what Larry Sabado

thinks? There are tons of other articles saying Bernie has the best chance of beating Trump.

The moderate candidates will heavily suppress turnout since there isn't much enthusiasm for them. And I'm concerned about Biden's health.

[squirecam]

15. If you want to ignore evidence, then fine.

I was responding to your post where you claim there is no evidence that Sanders would lose. There is. Sanders is an underdog vs Trump compared to Biden.

[OliverQ]

16. You're ignoring the evidence of Bernie

having a much larger support base and polling better than other Dems. So why would you think he's more likely to lose? This forum does not represent the bulk of the Democratic base demographics at all. Most posters here are 60+, where as the Democratic base skews much younger.

[squirecam]

17. I didn't make the claim that there was no evidence

That Sanders would lose. You did.

You may not like that evidence. But it exists.

As for me, I trust Sabado more then I do message board posts. Or Twitter.

[dumptrump1]

19. punditry is not evidence.

What did sabato say about who would win in the 2016 general election? I would base his credibility on that.

[squirecam]

20. If someone has an 80% chance to win

That still means the other person wins 2 out of every 10 times.

Experts have to make predictions based on evidence. They aren’t infallible.

[dumptrump1]

21. 10 months before an election cannot give you an 80%

Certainty of anything.

[squirecam]

22. I am, 10 months before an election, 80% or more sure

That Trump will lose California. Show me an expert that will disagree with that position.

Therefore, your position that no one can be certain of anything is incorrect.

[dumptrump1]

23. Mondale and McGovern were probably 100% certain they would win more than their state

Too. How did that turn out?

[squirecam]

24. So that's a no then.

You can’t show one expert on CA?

[dumptrump1]

25. no but Sabatos foundation for his claim is inherently flawed

According to a site more accurate than his.

https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/amp/

[Demsrule86]

28. He doesn't have an expanded base. The numbers in the early primaries show this clearly.

[Demsrule86]

27. There is plenty of evidence. And I am not alone in my opinion...so no. Consider it a warning...and

this is a primary...so until he is the nominee (I hope he isn't as I want to beat Trump)...I can post what I choose within the rules...and electability is a fair and important topic.

[OliverQ]

34. There is zero evidence.

There is more evidence Biden would lose since Bernie is polling better than him in most states and beats him by far nationally.

You're not alone in your opinion, but this forum is an echo chamber. Most people here skew much older and do not represent the majority of Democrats or Independents.

[Demsrule86]

35. There is lots of evidence...Trump wants Sanders as the nominee...that alone is evidence...but there

I am not talking about this forum either.

[OliverQ]

36. Trump has stated conflicting things.

At a dinner with Lev Parnas, he said he's worried about facing Bernie because he has real support. McConnell warned the GOP members trying to push Bernie to be careful, because Bernie will be harder to beat then they think.

And Democrats were pushing for Trump to be the candidate in 2016 because they were convinced he'd be easy to beat. Remind me how that worked out.

[Callado119]

32. No we won't because he absolutely would lose and is supported by evidence..

[OliverQ]

33. Absolutely no evidence supports that conclusion.

Bernie is winning in most swing states, more than other Dems. Bernie is beating Biden by 13 points nationally. Bernie has the largest base of support. Bernie is the most liked Democratic candidate.

[helpisontheway]

18. Yup! I will be pissed if he is part of the reason that we are stuck with Sanders

He knows he can’t win so he was to rack up delegates? For what? His ego? He knows he is hurting Biden.

[Demsrule86]

29. If he acts as spoiler and Trump wins...he won't ever have another chance at the primary IMHO.

[musicblind]

38. Buttigieg is currently second in delegates.

I think it is unfair to ask him to get out of the race without at least offering him something in return. If he hasn't already, Biden should personally call Buttigieg and talk to him as a friend and not an advisory. Buttigieg is a brilliant young man and would make a great addition to Biden's cabinet or ticket. I have nothing but respect for Buttigieg. He would certainly not be "dead to me" if he doesn't drop out and clear the way.

Right now, we THINK we know what will happen in South Carolina, but we thought we knew what would happen in Iowa, too. Let's see what happens before we go so far. That's just my humble opinion. I'm not saying you are wrong to have yours. I just don't get why you feel that strongly at this point?

[Demsrule86]

4. Dukakis won what one state?

[brooklynite]

7. Actually, Dukakis won WA, OR, MN, IA, WI, NY, MA, RI, CT and WV

[sweetloukillbot]

13. Shit, he won WV? Those were the days... nt

[The_Counsel]

26. Weren't They, Though...?

There actually was a time where WV was just about as reliably Blue a state as there ever was. Even more so than NY, if you can imagine that...

[musicblind]

39. Yep, there was a time when West Virginians cared deeply about their livelihoods and quality of life.

I'm surprised so many of them no longer do.

[Demsrule86]

30. That is truly horrible...

What a loss...

[totodeinhere]

6. Here's the thing. Mayor Pete sitll thinks he has a path to the nomination. And apparently so does

Senator Klobuchar and of course Joe Biden isn't going away anytime soon. And Bloomberg has unlimited resources so he no incentive to leave. So that continues to divide up the anti-Bernie vote and clears a path for him.

[Demsrule86]

37. I doubt Pete, Amy or Liz will win delegates...so they will have to get out...sad for Sanders since

he needs to divide the moderate vote which is far larger than his support totals...but no matter if he arrived at the convention with 30%, he wouldn't win the nomination anyway.

[counting]

9. what is he hoping for?

4th on the delegate count? potential vp for the nominee?

[jalan48]

11. In a brokered convention Buttigieg's delegates would likely go to a Centrist, not Sanders or Warren.