South Carolina poll: Biden leads Sanders by four points

[Uncle Joe]

Former Vice President Joe Biden has a narrow 4-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in South Carolina ahead of the state’s Saturday primary, according to a new poll.

The latest Post and Courier survey released on Thursday finds Biden at 28 percent, followed by Sanders at 24, billionaire businessman Tom Steyer at 16, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at 12 and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11.

(snip)

The Post and Courier survey has Biden’s lead at the smallest it has ever been. He led in the same poll by 31 points in May of 2019.

But Sanders has closed the gap among black voters, and Steyer’s strategy of blanketing the airwaves with ads appears to have earned him some pockets of support, at least in the polls.

(snip)

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485042-south-carolina-poll-biden-leads-sanders-by-four-points

[David__77]

1. I tend to think the gap is large.

That said we shall see soon enough!

[Hassin Bin Sober]

12. Agree. At this point, I see no reason to fret or argue about polls.

[msongs]

2. depends on how many repubs turn out for .... bernie nt

[NurseJackie]

6. Ha!

[honest.abe]

3. Change Research online pollster (C rated by 538)

They often show a pro-bias for Sanders and a negative bias for Biden.

https://www.changeresearch.com/post/post-and-courier-change-research-south-carolina-primary

[Control-Z]

4. *NEW* Emerson South Carolina Poll: Biden 41%,

Bernie 25%, Buttigieg 11%, Steyer 11%, Klobuchar 6%.

The way posts go these days there's a poll for every person.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/south-carolina-2020-biden-poised-to-win-his-first-contest

[Just_Vote_Dem]

11. I like that one

[Control-Z]

16. Me too!

And I love the green bouncy guy.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

18. Yep

Wish I could still bounce like that

[Amishman]

5. Tempted to found a company named 'Random Number Generator Polling Service'

I can't recall a state having so many polls and such a wide spread

[Funtatlaguy]

7. I tend to most trust realclearpolitics which averages all polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

[Control-Z]

17. That's a great animation graph!

I'm bookmarking it so I can use it for now on.

[blm]

8. Operation chaos Republican voters were NOT polled.

They are voting for only one candidate.

[Sloumeau]

9. Well, look at the ratio of White people to Black people in that Change Research poll

[link:https://1de9b613-f5ea-469f-bbea-e129fedcca0d.usrfiles.com/ugd/1de9b6_d767397866c5411fa74229dc0669a84b.pdf|]

RACE:
White 65%
Black 32%

That info is about 2 pages from the bottom of that link. I read that the Democratic Party in South Carolina is about 60% Black.

Therefore, it is no surprise that Biden does much worse in poll that is 65% White instead of 60% Black.

============================================================================

Now, what about the Monmouth sample, where Biden led Bernie by 20 points:

[link:https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_sc_022720.pdf/|]

RACE:
White 167 39.7%
Black 254 60.3%

Among South Carolina voters who are likely to participate in the Democratic primary on Saturday, support currently stands at 36% for Biden, 16% for Sanders, and 15% for Steyer.

Well, when the race ratio is correct, Biden does way better!

You see the Democratic Party in SC is about 60% Black:

[link:https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/484429-the-south-carolina-democratic-primary-will-be-decided-by-black|]

[honest.abe]

10. I really think Change Research is a scam operation promoting Sanders.

They should be banned.

[Dem Femme Fatale]

13. Proof?

Otherwise, I find accusations unbecoming even if undesirable.

[honest.abe]

14. Past performance and a gut feeling.

Welcome aboard!

[Dem Femme Fatale]

20. K

Can you show me their past performance? I'll take your word re: your gut.


Ty, but I've been a lurker for years.

[honest.abe]

21. Your profile says you just joined today.

But I will take your word re: lurker.

I guess you dont follow political polling much if you dont realize Change Research has some issues. You can search on 538 or Real Clear Politics and you will see how their numbers often differ from most other reputable pollsters.

[UncleNoel]

15. SC RC Average: Biden 34.4, Sanders 21.8

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html



Change Research misrepresenting Black voter numbers. They have always posted outliers.

[Bumperstickers]

19. I noticed all the polls where Biden has a double digit lead

The over 50 voters are extremely weighted. Upwards of 60 % as compared to the polls that are within the margin of era. Both have A rated to c rated pollsters with this mixed take.