Bernie dropping like a rock on 538's overall primary forecast

[Celerity]

1591 pledged delegates is a big key number

1591 or less for a total and Bernie is under 40%, which is a big psychological barrier if there is no one at 1990 and thus a first ballot winner.

If he rolls into the convention with only, say 39% of the delegates, and Biden is at say 35% (I am NOT saying these will be the totals at all) of the delegates, he will have a FAR harder time making a case than if he was at say, 45% and Biden at 29% At that point, a 45%-29% breakdown in Sanders' favour, it would be basically impossible to deny him the nomination, as the party would tear itself apart and we would lose to Trump even more likely than nominating Sanders would do.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[msongs]

1. the winner needs a majority. dont fear bullying threats of one candidate who can't get a majority to

back him/her on the first ballot

[SidDithers]

28. +1...nt

Sid

[Dopers_Greed]

2. Though the chances of a contested convention are rising

That could be just as bad for us as Sanders clinching it

[honest.abe]

7. Once Biden starts winning things could quickly flip his way.

That's how primaries typically work.

[exboyfil]

27. So when will he start winning

What ridiculous claim will he make next week?

[relayerbob]

9. I suspect that there would be some quick negotiations

to prevent that from happening

[thesquanderer]

15. Yeah. With these numbers, the only outcome more likely than a Sanders majority is...

...a brokered convention.

But we may well see some noticeable shifts in these numbers over the next week.

[delisen]

3. Must resist bullying in primary to crush the Big Bully in the General Election

Becoming another bullied political party is really not the way to go.

[honest.abe]

4. I thought so. Predicting a primary is like predicting the weather 3 months from now.

Impossible.

[Moderateguy]

5. For Sanders to win on the 1st ballot per this

He’d need Warren, Pete and Amy to release their delegates before the first ballot and hope that 72% vote for him. I don’t see Bloomberg or Biden releasing their delegates before the first ballot

[still_one]

11. Can a candidate do that before the first ballot?

[Moderateguy]

12. Yes- they can release their delegates before the first ballot..

And tell them who to vote for, but the delegate is free to choose whoever they want

[still_one]

21. Interesting, thanks

[TexasTowelie]

20. I thought that there was a rule that a candidate must have 300 delegates

before their name can be introduced into nomination? If the candidate fails to do that, then aren't the delegates free to vote for whomever they prefer?

[comradebillyboy]

6. Well that's a bit of good news today.

[oasis]

8. Look out below!

[still_one]

10. I really wish Bloomberg would drop out

[honest.abe]

13. Im torn on that.

It would definitely help Joe but I really like his hard hitting ads against Trump. I dont think his ads would carry the same weight if he wasnt running.

[Moderateguy]

14. Why?

There’s no evidence that Joe can win a Biden V Sanders race (might change after SC)

[Dem Femme Fatale]

19. ?

Really?

[Amishman]

16. For Biden 15% and delegates from the huge CA pool is very important

Getting nothing out of CA would be a huge setback

[flamingdem]

22. Very important that Biden gets 15% in CA

I hope they spend more $ there

[Moderateguy]

23. There is NO WAY anyone besides possibly Tulsi gets nothing out of California...

2/3rds of the delegates are awarded on the congressional district level--in order to be viable there you ONLY need to get 15% in that particular district. So for Bernie/Warren to get all of the delegates from California, all the other candidates will have to be at less than 15% at BOTH the statewide and ALL of the 53 Congressional district levels. That is not possible

[empedocles]

29. thank you

[honest.abe]

17. Interesting your comment about 40% being kind of a threshold.

I think you may be right and what we are seeing now, it appears Bernie may not get there.

[HarlanPepper]

18. Yes. This is a sign of hope, I think.

And a welcome one at that.

[intheflow]

24. You still trust 538 after their Clinton polling in 2016?

Not to mention that Silver leans conservative. I don't trust anything coming out of 538 any more.

https://newrepublic.com/article/155761/fall-nate-silver

[Celerity]

25. the polls are the polls, I take everything w/ a grain of salt, but all trends point to a Bernie drop

[LakeArenal]

26. Hope so.

[Gothmog]

30. Joe Biden has the strongest lead over Donald Trump among registered voters in battleground states.

Link to tweet

[melman]

31. How's Pete doing?