Post and Courier Poll: Biden 28% Sanders 24% Steyer 16% Warren 12%

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

The Post and Courier Poll is considered by many to be the bellwether poll for the SC Primary.


Man o man, this Saturday is going to be exciting!

Fingers crossed that Warren can break 15% and get some SC delegates heading into Super Tuesday.

Right now Warren is in 2nd place in delegate rich California!


Best of luck to everyone and their preferred candidates!

(And isn't it nice that Bloomberg isn't on the ballot in SC?)

[Peacetrain]

1. Bookmarking the Bellweather for future reference

[Metodiko]

2. That's the Change Research outlier

Post and Courier sounds fancy and serious but that's just the name of the news outlet.
The pollster is the low-quality Change Research.

[bluewater]

5. Change Research was one of the most accurate pollsters for Iowa this year.

But, as I always say...

The polls are what the polls are.

And we won't have to wait months to find out who is correct, voting is on Saturday!

[TwilightZone]

6. No, they weren't.

They had Sanders +8 in their last poll before the caucus. Really accurate, that.

https://www.changeresearch.com/post/pollercoaster-2020-sanders-leads-by-8-points-in-iowa-caucuses

[bluewater]

8. Here's the hard number analysis of the Iowa polling. Change research did VERY well.

Lower numbers are better in this table:

Link to tweet

The polls are what the polls are.

The data speaks for itself, Change Research did very well predicting Iowa.

[Metodiko]

10. Nate Silver responds to Elliot

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

12. Yet some how, Change Research had the second lowest error in polling Iowa. lol

Hey, I would love to see Nate's actual analysis of those pollsters' performance in Iowa.

Did he put up any real numbers on it anywhere?

A table of mean absolute errors, like G. Elliot did?

If you have a link, would you please share it. Thanks.




Oh, and Welcome to DU!

I have to run, someone just asked me what was the name of the Clinton's cat when Bill was president.

I am off to google that.

Enjoy your evening!

[Bumperstickers]

11. A plus marist poll also has Biden up 4 pts 2 days ago.

[Lunch Lady]

13. Wecome to DU. I am new here like you.

Bernie Sanders is a good man.

He cares about working people like my family.

[Bucky]

17. Agree 100

I'll take any one of our candidates.

[W_HAMILTON]

23. The other Democrats running also care about working people like your family.

[jimlup]

3. Worth noting that the progressive combo is more than Biden...

I was with Elizabeth but I don't see her winning it at the moment. I wish wish wish. She is so excellent.

[Bucky]

18. Hold on

She's not out yet. She's been behind before. But nevertheless she's persisted

[jimlup]

21. I hope so. She is the best from where I observe

[Bucky]

22. She's like EVERYBODY'S second choice

She's perfect for holding the party together in the fall.

I seriously hope I'm overestimating how divided we'll be in the fall. Honestly, I could live with a Biden or Bernie presidency. I just worry that one won't do enough and the other won't get enough done.

He's probably the best choice for Bernie, but I'm already cringing at the jokes about "Sanders-Castro 2020"

[TwilightZone]

4. Change Research isn't the bellwether of anything.

They're one of the lower ranked polls (C) that 538 still includes in the totals.

[bluewater]

7. Do keep up, Change Research was one of the best polls for Iowa this year!

Lower numbers are better in this table:

Link to tweet

The polls are what the polls are.

Seriously, there is no need to try an "unskew" them.

[Codeine]

16. *snort*

[pamdb]

9. elelctiom

Steyer. Amy, Pete and Bloomberg need to GET OUT and throw their support to Biden.
Maybe one of them can land the VPslot.

[TwilightZone]

14. How's that bellwether looking tonight?

[Codeine]

15. "The polls are what the polls are."

And sometimes, they’re crappy outlier shit that should be disregarded.

[Peacetrain]

20. Yep!!