Bernie Sanders Can Beat Trump. Here's the Math.

[bluewater]

Most available evidence points in the direction of a popular vote and Electoral College victory.
By Steve Phillips
Mr. Phillips is the author of “Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority.”

Whatever you think about Bernie Sanders as a potential president, it is wrong to dismiss his chances of winning the office. Not only does most of the available empirical evidence show Mr. Sanders defeating President Trump in the national popular vote and in the critical Midwestern states that tipped the Electoral College in 2016, but his specific electoral strengths align with changes in the composition of the country’s population in ways that could actually make him a formidable foe for the president.

Almost all of the current polling data shows Mr. Sanders winning the national popular vote. In the most recent national polls testing Democratic candidates against Mr. Trump, Mr. Sanders beat him in every single one, with margins varying from 2 percent to 6 percent. This has been the case for nearly a year now, with Mr. Sanders outpolling the president in 67 of 72 head-to-head polls since March.

As 2016 proved when Hillary Clinton defeated Mr. Trump in the popular vote by nearly three million votes, however, the Electoral College is what matters most. There, Mr. Sanders also does well, outperforming Mr. Trump in polls of the pivotal battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In the one poll showing significant Trump strength in Wisconsin (Quinnipiac), Mr. Sanders still fares the best of the Democratic contenders.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-polls.html?referringSource=articleShare

The math is what the math is.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

1. Middle will not vote for a socialist

Get used to it.

[katmondoo]

2. I won't get used to it.

[bluewater]

3. The Times They are A Changin'

Get used to it.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. So Joe, Pete and Amy voters will vote for Trump in November? Nt

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

7. They will vote for Biden

If if they stick by "i will support the nominee"

Of course Sander's supporter's will more than likely revolutionary try the sit out bullshit.

[StClone]

12. In 2016 one in ten Sanders supporters voted for Trump

What that means is WE were attracting from outside the Dem Demography. We could pull those back to Bernie plus a blue wave and it could be enough to wipe Trump out.

[Gothmog]

46. 25% of sanders supporters either voted for trump, a third party candidate or stayed home

Link to tweet

[Downtown Hound]

14. Repeating that tired mantra over and over again in defiance of available facts will not make it true

Get used to it.

[billpolonsky]

24. Anand Giridharadas on why the socialism/capitalism binary is false

"There are some people who had a great life in the 20th century who should have considered remaining in it," says author Anand Giridharadas, who is tired of pundits and politicians like Michael Bloomberg who understand politics in terms of simplistic Cold-War era binaries of socialism versus capitalism. "It's not particularly helpful now, in 2020, to be reliving your own Cold War trauma as guidance for the United States. Michael Bloomberg is trying to present this old American talking point that you got two choices, people: We can either be a Goldman Sachs country, or we can be Maduro's Venezuela." Giridharadas argues that almost every country in the world is structured by a mix of capitalist and socialist elements, and that the American electorate needs to come to terms with this in the 2020 election.

[link:

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[HarlanPepper]

32. Nobody takes that crank seriously.

[ancianita]

45. Giridharadaras is not a crank, and anything he takes seriously should be taken very seriously.

Do you agree with Bloomberg's false choice?


"Giridharadas argues that almost every country in the world is structured has some mix of capitalism and socialism elements, and that the American electorate needs to come to terms with this in the 2020 election."

Do you not agree with this?

[Gothmog]

44. Washington Post-Americans really dislike socialism. Can Bernie Sanders overcome that?

Link to tweet

That polling suggests Sanders’s image today is not a liability, but there is no guarantee his support would withstand sustained general election attacks calling him a socialist. (Sanders typically identifies as a democratic socialist, but in the past he has identified as simply a socialist.) While Biden, Buttigieg and other Democrats also have not faced the same level of scrutiny of their records as a presidential nominee would get, polling is crystal clear about Americans’ negativity toward socialism.

A January Gallup poll found less than half of Americans, 45 percent, said they would vote for a socialist for president, even if they were well qualified and from their own political party. Being a socialist was the least acceptable of 12 traits measured in the poll — 60 percent said they would vote for an atheist, 69 percent for someone who is over age 70, and 93 percent for a woman....

This month, an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll found 46 percent of registered voters saying they would be “very uncomfortable” with a socialist candidate for president, and another 21 percent saying they “have some reservations about” that attribute.

On a basic measure, a December Fox News poll found 31 percent of registered voters saying they have a favorable view of socialism, while 53 percent were unfavorable. Ratings of socialism were up from 25 percent in early 2019, but ratings of capitalism remained far higher, with 57 percent rating it favorably, the same as last year...…

Overall, 53 percent of Americans said Sanders’s identity wouldn’t make a difference in their vote, while 35 percent said they would be more likely to oppose him and 10 percent would be more likely to support him.

Most of the “more likely to oppose” group appears committed to supporting Trump. Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) supported Trump over all six Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups, a strong signal that they had little chance of supporting Sanders anyway. Another 10 percent of the “more likely to oppose” group supported all six Democratic candidates against Trump, including Sanders, a group that is also probably committed.

But nearly 1 in 5 of the respondents who said Sanders’s identity as a democratic socialist or socialist made them less likely to support him were toss-up voters — people who did not consistently support Trump or Democrats in six head-to-head matchups. This group makes up 6 percent of adults and registered voters alike, and while not massive, is large enough to swing a presidential election.

[Gothmog]

42. Research reveals that Sen. Sanders's electability is based on a polling mirage

Link to tweet

[NurseJackie]

49. Nobody in my family will vote for him... they have told me so.

He's a Socialist, that's their reason. (And they don't like the finger wagging either... that made me laugh.) But mostly, and in all sincerity, they don't like his Socialist self-identification and they believe his contempt of the Democratic party would make him a poor party leader.

I can't say that I disagree with them. Those are all fair criticisms. I'll bet they're not the only ones who'll stay home either. Sad.

[WhereAmerica]

5. Polls make clear: MOST VOTERS WON'T VOTE FOR A SOCIALIST

And, by the time the Trump/Russia machine gets through, most voters will think he's also a Communist.

Sanders would be a disaster.

[StClone]

8. Jesus and FDR were feared too

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

9. Did they call themselves socialists?

That word is poison and Bernie hung it around his neck.

[StClone]

16. Trump pals around with Dictators, Oligarchs and thugs how is that more positive?

When we start hammering the Orange One some will stick. As mentioned below, I speak to a lot of people especially the youth and they have a very favorable view of Socialism. True we need them to vote but it's not all bad.

[Squinch]

21. BS is like Jesus now?

[StClone]

22. Yes.

[Squinch]

23. Ok. I'll play. In what way?

[StClone]

25. Jewish and Socialism

[Squinch]

26. What socialism? What has he DONE (not just talked about) that is socialist?

[StClone]

27. We are already Socialistic: Schools, roads, Police Force, Legal System, postal system...

Bernie has sought to strengthen those and move to Single Payer and taxing the super wealthy to help pay for it. He also was at the March on Selma back as an early supporter of Civil Rights. More.

[Squinch]

28. He has sought to do a lot of things. He has also called for a lot of things. And he has "slammed"

a lot of things. That's not what I am asking about.

What has he DONE? In 30 years in Congress, what has he DONE?

And dear God. Is the March on Selma the ONLY thing in ALL THESE YEARS that he has ever done to benefit the AA community? Because that's all anyone can ever come up with.

But I know, I know. All race issues will disappear when we achieve economic equality.

[StClone]

29. Actually he never marched on Selma

Just to be clear, Bernie was big on Civil Rights and visited Selma as a commemoration NOT back in 1965. If as you say he has gotten little done then what are you worried about. He's harmless and not a Socialist. Problem solved.

I am saying I WILL VOTE FOR HIM if nominated. I WILL HAPPILY VOTE FOR JOE! So going around and around on this as YOU get decided seems to be the issue.

[StClone]

33. Jesus and Bernie

Jesus was for: Peace.

Bernie is for Peace: Voted against Iraq war. Sanders has staked out a radical foreign policy that includes ending the forever wars, using aid money as leverage to push Israel to negotiate with the Palestinians, and making climate change a cornerstone of American foreign policy. https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/sanders-anti-war-iran/

Jesus was for: Jesus taught that we ought to pay our taxes (Matthew 17:24-27; 22:17-22). Caesar was the emperor of an oppressive regime; but his followers, then and now, were called to show deference to the ruling authorities in matters that do not violate our Christian calling to be his witnesses (compare Acts 4:18-19 and Romans 13:1-8).

Jesus taught that we should use our financial resources to help the poor and needy through benevolence (Luke 10:29-37; 18:18-25; compare James 2:15-17) and missions/ministry support (Luke 8:1-3; 10:1-9). https://www.crosswalk.com/family/finances/debt/what-did-jesus-actually-have-to-say-about-money.html

Bernie wants to tax those who can pay more.


Jesus spoke of doing on to others, and helping the poor.

Bernie, through Medicare for All, would help the poor as health care is the major problem in the poor.

Jesus spoke of truth and honesty.

More Voters Believe Bernie Sanders Is the Most Honest Candidate Of All Democratic Contenders, Poll Finds. https://www.newsweek.com/more-voters-believe-bernie-sanders-most-honest-candidate-all-democratic-contenders-poll-finds-1484626

Bernie Sanders Says His Campaign is Based on These Words of Jesus Christ:

“Not that complicated. Do unto others as you would like them to do to you. All right?” Sanders said. “I believe that. And in many respects, that’s exactly what our campaign is based on. It is based on, on justice. I believe in justice. That is the core of what our campaign is about.”

Bernie is doing good because he knows it right, That's pretty close to what Jesus did.

[Hav]

40. None of what you said is socialism...

There is a difference between social systems/programs and socialism. You seem to have fallen for BS muddying the waters with this democratic socialism nonsense and his false and dishonest comparison with certain European states that he claims are socialists.

[delisen]

34. oops. The people chose Barabas & Jesus was crucified.

[StClone]

38. LOL Bernie has been persecuted not crucified

Though it may come to that. By the way I am a Warren supporter (was for Pete) and will vote for any Dem!

[bluewater]

11. Welcome to DU.

[StClone]

6. I talk to many people

None have come to me and said straight out "no" to a Bernie ticket (running mate!?). Small sample but I don't get all the fear and loathing.

[JakeBailey]

15. I have as well, and the most vocal people that keep telling me over and over that...

Bernie can't win are on CNN or MSNBC, or at the The New York Times, Washington Post or the DNC.

It's just my feeling, but Trump is so hated at this point that zero people who didn't vote for him last time will this time, and millions who didn't vote at all in 2016 will - for anyone but him.

[hamsterjill]

10. I just don't agree. I'm sorry.

Again, for every post, I will make the claim that no matter the nominee, I will vote for the Democratic candidate.

But I'm a staunch, ardent Dem. I just don't think the moderates and independents are going to flock to Bernie.

[William769]

13. Actually Sanders loses Michigan, & Pennsylvania

Which means trump wins 270 to 268. By the off chance it's a tie at 269, 269. we would still lose republicans control 26 of the State house delegations.

You are correct. The math is what the math is.

[brush]

18. And a socialist will also lose Fla., a hugely important state.

[William769]

20. I know, I live in Florida.

[Gothmog]

43. It's all over if Joe wins Texas

Link to tweet

[lark]

17. Or has the math been altered through fake polls?

Michael Cohen has said he often had the polls slanted pro-drumpf in 2016, he made it happen. Intelligence says Russia is actively interferring to help Bernie and drumpf at this point. How do we know the polls are accurate? How do we know the vote totals weren't hacked? Sorry, I just am not sure what reality is anymore when anything and everything can be bought.

[frazzled]

19. Maybe, but then we have to have him as president

That's the part I'm not so rosy about.

[HarlanPepper]

31. Another Warren post

The tells are what the tells are.

[rockfordfile]

35. What would happen to our down ballots?

[Gothmog]

47. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker come 2021

Link to tweet

THE TUMULTUOUS POLITICAL CLIMATE has given fresh hope to REPUBLICANS, who were privately skeptical of TRUMP’S prediction that House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY will be the next speaker come 2021. Internal polling commissioned by the NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE showed that voters in districts targeted by both parties are skeptical of SANDERS -- his approval rating is 42%, and disapproval stands at 53% -- which they believe will help boost their candidates for the House. In these districts, voters prefer TRUMP, 48% to 43%. If SANDERS is atop the ticket, Republicans believe, they can credibly label every Democrat a socialist without fear of overreach.

[mgcgulfcoast]

36. He can easily beat Trump

and will

[Callado119]

39. Nope...

You’re in for a shock if we’re unlucky enough to have him as our nominee...

[Gothmog]

48. trump would destory a weak candidate like sanders easily-the oppo on sanders is scary

I am very worried about down ballot races. sanders is a very weak candidate and would be easy for trump to destroy. In addition to the well written 101 page memorandum with oppo on sanders with a 1000 pages of backup from the Clinton campaign trump has his own oppo file on sanders that would destroy such a weak and divisive candidate like sanders.

Link to tweet

trump had a two foot thick book of oppo research on Sanders http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044

They ignored the fact that Sanders had not yet faced a real campaign against him. Clinton was in the delicate position of dealing with a large portion of voters who treated Sanders more like the Messiah than just another candidate. She was playing the long game—attacking Sanders strongly enough to win, but gently enough to avoid alienating his supporters. Given her overwhelming support from communities of color—for example, about 70 percent of African-American voters cast their ballot for her—Clinton had a firewall that would be difficult for Sanders to breach....

So what would have happened when Sanders hit a real opponent, someone who did not care about alienating the young college voters in his base? I have seen the opposition book assembled by Republicans for Sanders, and it was brutal. The Republicans would have torn him apart. And while Sanders supporters might delude themselves into believing that they could have defended him against all of this, there is a name for politicians who play defense all the time: losers....

The Republicans had at least four other damning Sanders videos (I don’t know what they showed), and the opposition research folder was almost 2-feet thick. (The section calling him a communist with connections to Castro alone would have cost him Florida.) In other words, the belief that Sanders would have walked into the White House based on polls taken before anyone really attacked him is a delusion built on a scaffolding of political ignorance.

sanders was such a weak primary candidate that the Clinton campaign did not use its oppo but trump would have fun destroying such a weak candidate like sanders

I will vote for the nominee of the party but I fear that the nomination of sanders will lead to a Speaker Kevin McCarthy

[Demsrule86]

37. Ummm...no. Won't happen.

[Gothmog]

41. Biden has the strongest lead over Donald Trump among registered voters in battleground state

Link to tweet