very bad news for every candidate not named Bernard

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

The polls are what the polls are.

According to this poll, Sanders is the only candidate meeting the 15% threshold in California.

Warren is in second at 14%, I sure hope she can get bumped up over 15%.

[honest.abe]

1. Those numbers will change after Sanders get slaughtered on Saturday.

Stay tuned.

[zackymilly]

2. Yep, I think Joe's gonna start shining. n/t

[bluewater]

3. Time will Tell and Time is Short!

Super Tuesday is March 3rd, just three days later and we will see if you are correct about Texas and California.

Best of luck to you and your candidate on Super Tuesday.

[honest.abe]

5. 3 days is sufficient for impact.

Nate Silver’s delegate predictor shows big impact on ST if Biden wins by 10+ points.

[bluewater]

9. What's the impact of a narrow Biden win in SC?

Must be somewhat positive, but hasn't Joe been leading in the polling averages in SC for months?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

Yeah it got close in a few polls a week or two ago, but Joe never lost his lead.

Hasn't that been factored in already?

[honest.abe]

13. A narrow win would not have a big impact.

If its 10+ then significant.

[cannabis_flower]

6. It's even shorter

Considering Texans have been voting since the 18th.

[honest.abe]

7. Many probably most will vote on Election Day.

There will be impact on those.

[Celerity]

12. well over 1 million ST votes have already been cast, over 700,000 in my state alone (CA)

[David__77]

17. 1.2 million Democratic ballots in CA.

Not sure if any of the 0.6 million decline to state ballots include decline to state voters who requested to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, or if those are counted under the Democratic column. https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-primary-election-tracker/

[MisterFred]

8. Maybe. Depends on what percentage of voters are using early voting/mailing in ballots before Sat.

Most Super Tuesday states, unlike South Carolina, allow for some form of early voting. Now, it probably won't be like Nevada, but I wouldn't be surprised if nearly half of the Super Tuesday votes have already been cast before we get the SC results.

[JustAnotherGen]

4. I don't believe in Polls

The polls said we would never have Trump as President - yet here we are.

Results - I'm interested in Results.

No star hitching until after Super Tuesday.

[Celerity]

18. some national polls in 2016 (especially the LA Times) were quite accurate at a meta national level

Most missed the 3 rust-belt flips (WI, MI, PA) although a few had 1, 2, or even all 3 (MI was the biggest surprise) going Rump. Also many missed FL (notoriously hard to call) That was the the election lost right there.

[JustAnotherGen]

19. See I'm only focused

On WI, MI, PA and Ohio. None of those should have been surprising, especially due to the voter suppression efforts in those states leading up to the election. MI and WI and PA are in a better place this year. I still don't believe those folks in places like Youngstown Ohio will vote for the Democratic Party member. They showed their racist faces - and all Trump has to do is scream "Brown people killed the stock market with Corona Beer" a day or two before the election and they will fall right in line.

4 years after that election and 'those' people feeling emboldened in their evil - we don't have a chance in hell of winning the Presidency. Those polls showing our candidates neck and neck or ahead of Trump in certain states? The s.o.b.s are lying. I don't believe them.


ETA - This for now is GOOD news. Voter suppression sucks
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142439068

[Celerity]

21. I am pessimistic atm, but there are many shoes to drop before November, a lot depends on

who our nominee is, and how divided our Party is post-convention (if at all.) If the economy really starts to crater, that is deffo in our favour, as the casual voter will simply blame Trump. His legions of MAGAts are beyond redemption, but I pay them no heed. 2018 proved the Trumpian bullshit is not bulletproof, he had his arse handed to him by proxy.

You hit the nail on the head with another massive issue, voter suppression. We need to fight that hammer and tong at ALL levels.

[Loki Liesmith]

10. Average the polls

[malchickiwick]

11. Where are the undecideds in these polls? (n/t)

[msongs]

14. trump is not named bernard and its very good news for him nt

[OliverQ]

16. Not based on evidence it's not.

Also not based on McConnell's comments.

[OliverQ]

15. Elizabeth Bernard Warren can still win it!

[jmowreader]

20. Polls can be, and probably are being, rigged.

As of right now, the entire Russian/GOP game plan relies on Bernie Sanders being our nominee.

[Gothmog]

22. Biden has the strongest lead over Donald Trump among registered voters in battleground state

Link to tweet