DU Primaries Report, February 2020: Fasten Your Seatbelts! (With Guest Host Steve Kornacki)

[EarlG]

Welcome to the eleventh monthly DU Primaries Report, based on the ongoing candidate preferences of DU members right here in the Democratic Primaries forum!

How the Candidate Rankings board works:

• Displayed percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, so a candidate displayed at (for example) 10% will have an actual percentage in the range of 9.50% to 10.49%.


• Candidates below 0.5% are displayed at 0%. Candidates with no supporters at all are marked with a dash.


• For the purposes of the DU Primaries Report, only candidates who have an actual percentage of at least 1% are included.

Previously on the DU Primaries Report

January 2020: The End Of The Beginning
December 2019: Farewell To Harris
November 2019: Comings And Goings
October 2019: Ups And Downs
September 2019: So Trump Is Getting Impeached
August 2019: I'll Just Get My Coat
July 2019: Look, a Squirrel!
June 2019: Warren Takes Charge
May 2019: Steady As She Goes
April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started!

Where the candidates stand this month

Hello everyone! For two straight months now someone has told EarlG that he sounds like Steve Kornacki, so he reached out to me, the real Steve Kornacki, to see if I would be interested in showing you all how it's REALLY done by guest hosting the February DU Primaries Report and as someone who LITERALLY eats polls and shits statistics of course I said YES!



So what's going on with the candidates this month? Are we seeing any movement in the numbers that say "Hey, maybe the numbers are going up, or maybe the numbers are going down?" Well the answer to both questions is YES as you can see here.

Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided, all-time



Just look at them going up and down!



So what does this mean? That's the question! Take a look at those long-term trends over the past year and you'll see that the candidates' smooooooth trajectories since last July have suddenly hit TURBULENCE. Could be something to do with the fact that in February actual votes were cast for the first time in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, probably, am I right?

Let's ZOOM IN and get a closer look at the data from February.

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, February 2020



Look, you see? Elizabeth Warren's still at the top starting the month on 20.01% although she took a HELLUVA dip there to 18.83% after disappointing results in the first two contests before ROCKETING back up to 20.38% by the end of the month thanks to her major beatdown of Michael Bloomberg on the debate stage in Las Vegas.

Speaking of Bloomberg you'll notice he's appearing in the report for the first time this month cracking 1% actual support with 1.08% on February 10 before building a head of steam to 1.85% by mid month and then letting out that steam with a slow embarrassing fart sound and sort of gently deflating back to 1.35% today.

But see here!



Not shown on the graph above are Undecideds who dropped PRECIPITOUSLY from 44.34% at the start of February to 40.81% at the end which is their lowest level since Kamala Harris dropped out.

And where are all those Undecideds going? Well they're going mostly to Bernie Sanders who began February on 10.13% and finished at 12.82, that's a WHOPPING leap of 2.69 percentage points! Sanders is the only candidate consistently gaining ground at this point.

And look at Joe Biden, he's also on the rise but only after losing a lot of confidence during the first half of February. Biden's numbers took a WILD dive from 15.91% at the start of the month to 14.31% after Iowa and New Hampshire -- no doubt losing some of that mojo to Michael Bloomberg, before rebounding to 15.62% today as his supporters rally ahead of the South Carolina primary.

Meanwhile Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar aren't finding a lot of traction despite their successes in the first two contests with Buttigieg starting February at 5.19% and reaching 5.81% before slipping back to 5.35% today and Klobuchar LEAPING all the way from 2.00% at the start of the month to 3.27% and then falling back to earth at 2.48% today.

Don't you find this all just thrilling Stephanie?



Oh you weren't listening?

Well okay let's move on! It's my sad duty to inform you that three more candidates dropped out in February.



Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet, and Deval Patrick, you shall not be forgotten! Except perhaps Deval Patrick. I'll be honest I forgot about him while he was still running.

Next month's predictions

It's just, look, I mean, it's mayhem y'know?!



Anything could happen in the next 30 days, or is it 31? 30 days hath September, April, June and November, all the rest have 31 okay it's 31! 31 days folks! And the South Carolina primary coming up tomorrow is on a date so important that it literally WON'T EXIST FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS.

Will African-American voters catapult Joe Biden to a resounding victory? Will Bernie Sanders upset expectations and seal his front-runner status? And WHAT ON EARTH will happen on Super Tuesday? These are the questions! That I'm not going to answer!

Stephanie, be honest, you're secretly starting to enjoy my statistics aren't you?



WHAT THE...?!?!

I'm Steve Kornacki, thanks for having me! EarlG will be back with the next Primaries Report on Monday March 30! Don't forget to breathe!

[ZenDem]

1. I don't think I've ever had this much fun...

...reading stats and graphs, like ever in my life! I needed that chuckle and smile, today!

I will take this opportunity to request an "Award" smilie!

[MoonlitKnight]

2. Well done!

At least Kornaki wasn’t standing in front of all of those graphs like he does on TV.

[kacekwl]

3. Watching this guy makes me dizzy

and my eyes gloss over. Bunch of Jibber Jabber in my mind.

[Moderateguy]

4. Is the video sped up or does he really move that fast...

[EarlG]

5. I refuse to confirm or deny

Except to say that if I did, it was only by 10%

[dgauss]

6. My arms started flailing halfway through reading this.

And they're still going! Right now I'm typing with my nose.

[2naSalit]

7. It's not so bad if you

skim over it once before reading.

[tosh]

8. Excellent!

I feel better now, much calmer and assured.

[sandensea]

9. Steve Kornacki's the Man!

He always makes all these metrics informative, interesting - and, dare I say it, fun.

Steve, if you're reading this, here's to you!

[BaronChocula]

10. Spot on, except...

The slow embarrassing fart sound is actually Kornacki.

[FailureToCommunicate]

11. Wow! THANKS, Steve, for letting EarlG have a little break. But I suspect you BOTH need...

to really switch to decaf.

[Laelth]

12. Brilliant. Thank you, Steve. n/t

-Laelth

[SylviaD]

13. This is awesome nt