Way too early, of course, but I'm guessing it's going to be Kamala Harris.

[DanTex]

Checks all the boxes. Young, smart, charismatic. Hasn't been around long enough for anyone to have any real grudges against her, or to have made any bad votes that she has to defend. Seems to be popular with both the base and the insiders/donors.

So, based on no concrete evidence or data or anything at all, really, I predict it will be Harris, and she will go on to defeat Trump.

[bearsfootball516]

1. I think it'll come down to her and Biden, to be honest.

I think Warren and Bernie's bases could end up eating each other, and I don't know if there's another candidate right now that has enough to push them to the top...maybe Klobucher or Booker, but I'm not sure.

[exboyfil]

3. Biden/Harris might be your ticket

if they can keep the primary civil.

[honest.abe]

6. How about Harris/Biden?

I wonder if Joe is willing to do it again. If so that ticket would be unbeatable.

[exboyfil]

8. That would be amazing

I would nominate Biden for sainthood if he agreed to do that.

[honest.abe]

9. Indeed.

You know he might be willing given his concern about Trump attacking his family. As VP he wouldn't be as high profile target.

Good ole Joe might just do it for the future of the country. His legacy would be even more amazing.

[whathehell]

14. Biden won't take the Number 2 slot again..

and I can't say that I blame him.

[honest.abe]

16. Yeah, you are probably correct..

but it would really fill the gaps nicely.. midwest, east coast, blue collar, foreign policy, Washington experience, plus the Obama connection factor... WOW.. it gives me chills just thinking about it!

[whathehell]

17. To be honest..

I'm not sure of Harris's chances -- Despite the recent buzz around her, she really doesn't have much name recognition outside of California. In addition, she has racism AND sexism going against her.

[honest.abe]

18. Give it time. Its amazing how quickly she has become the "front runner".

Forget about the racism and sexism. That is a defeatist attitude. We can do better than that... we have to.

[marylandblue]

21. She started first and had a good rollout

plus appearing a lot in the early states. I wonder if that's sustainable as other candidates start up their campaigns, particularly if Biden runs.

[honest.abe]

22. Yeah, her campaign so far has been near flawless.

I would think a fast start is a huge benefit. The others now have to catch up.

[bearsfootball516]

49. She's got one quality that's really going to help, things don't stick to her.

She had her first test with the "I smoked in college and listened to Tupac" thing she said, when it turned out Tupac hadn't released mainstream music when she was in college. It was in the news for a day or so, and has completely fallen off since.

That's something the Democratic nominee will need, the ability for negative stories to just roll off instead of sticking.

[whathehell]

31. It's still very early days..

and I see myself as a realist, not a defeatist. To each his own.

[honest.abe]

32. Then why are you supporting Warren?

Is she immune to sexist attacks?

[whathehell]

36. I support her because I believe in her..

She's not immune to sexist attacks, but she doesn't have the "double whammy" of racism and sexism.

[honest.abe]

38. If you are so concerned about whammies why even risk one whammy??

A white male candidate would always be better.. right??

[whathehell]

40. As Barack Obama showed,

one "whammy" can be overcome -- two is more risky.

That said, I will vote for whomever get' the nomination.
If that's not good enough for you, I'm afraid we'll just have to say "adieu".

[honest.abe]

41. Ok.. we will leave it at that.

As a parting shot though I think her "whammies" may actually be a benefit. I don't like to push identity politics but there are some voters who will positively identify with her and will be more compelled to vote. Could result in a massive turnout like Obama 2008.

[whathehell]

42. That sounds good.

[McKim]

63. It is VERY Early!

Yes, it is way too early. And I thought that there was a special DU Forum for supporting different candidates!!!! Now i see several Kamala Harris stories about her being somone’s choice. Let’s abide by the established rules please. And let’s wait until ALL candidates have entered and have laid our their platform of ideas.

[whathehell]

64. Yes it is..

At this point, I'm more focused on getting rid of el trumpo.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

26. Yeah, no way!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Join the revolution!!!

[whathehell]

27. I like that combo..

Only thing, people might think they're too old. She's 69 and he's in his late 70's.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

30. Never too old when it comes to those two... they have more energy than some half their age!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Join the revolution!!!

[whathehell]

34. Well, I agree with you,

but I see it as the perception of most. They'll likely want a "balance"of old and young. Just my take.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

37. That's ok, we got AOC waitin in the wings after Bernie & Elizabeth put our country on the right path

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Join the revolution!!!

[WordsMatter]

54. Are you saying...

2020: Sanders/Warren
2024: Warren/AOC or Warren/?

I am not sure Senator Sanders would/should go for two terms, but with Senator Warren
as VP, this would be a nice hand-off...!

Still undecided, thou... I think the idea of waiting after the first debate before choosing
is acceptable.

[DanTex]

4. I think it will be one of Harris, Biden, or Sanders.

As I see it, Biden is going to vulnerable to the "we need something new" thing (and he's got some votes from way back that he will have to defend). Sanders, to an extent as well, and I think will have trouble expanding beyond his 2016 support group, which is less than half of the electorate, and he will probably lose some of those to people like Warren.

I don't see Klobuchar or Booker getting there. Booker is in the same young, smart, charismatic space as Harris, I just think Harris is frankly better at embodying those things than Booker (and also has a big head start). Klobuchar strikes me as a "normal Dem", which is a great thing to be, just don't think it will get her the nomination.

I'm not sure either, of course, just speculating. But speculation is fun!

[Garrett78]

11. Sanders is done for on Super Tuesday, if not sooner, just like last time.

[still_one]

33. I think so to. I think Sanders and Warren will have a very difficult time capturing the South, and

without that, it is very difficult to cinch the nomination

I think Warren hurts Sanders more than the other way around, though Sanders will still hold the lead against her, I think their support outside of that is very thin, especially in the South

[DownriverDem]

62. As long as

it's not Bernie. Bernie is not a member of the Democratic Party. His supporters do not get it at all.

[exboyfil]

2. Not my first choice but

in my top two or three. Still will she appeal to the midwest firewall. Pair her with Brown and lose the Senate seat. Pair her with Klobuchar and run the risk of an unbalanced ticket (two women). How about pair her with Franken?

[DanTex]

5. Yeah, I wish we could pair her with Franken. I miss him.

I'd hope we were past two women being too unbalanced, but you may be right. I guess Booker would be out for the same unfortunate reason.

[honest.abe]

7. Yep, that's my thinking as well.

Ive been sold since I first read about her a few months ago.

[Demsrule86]

10. There has't been a primary ...way too early. I must say the post yesterday

about women bosses gave me pause. Can a woman get elected in sexist America? I would love to see it. But I fear a loss to the point I am nervous about taking any chances on helping Donnie the terrible.

[WordsMatter]

12. It would be nice if she would publish her policies and issues web pages...

I would like to know what her positions are on important topics...

As far as I know, only Senator Warren has her policies and issues web page up - good for her.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. You'd think that would be useful information in a campaign.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Join the revolution!!!

[WordsMatter]

45. For instance,

Senator Harris does not have an Issues page. I don't really know what she represents although
in the 2 years as being a Senator, she has done some great work.

Senator Harris has a lot of years as a prosecutor and that is a plus as it means she was in the political governmental
arena. And with only 2 years as Senator, the track record is still forming.

So, I would like to know what her positions are...

[ehrnst]

46. Here is a partial list

https://votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/120012/kamala-harris/#.XHQzX-hKgdU

http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Kamala_Harris.htm

[WordsMatter]

47. Thanks for this...Still wanting Senator Harris and all others to put issues and positions on website

This way we all can review each each candidates positions that is in writing (so to speak).

[NurseJackie]

13. I like her demeanor. She's very respectful of others. Her smile is warm and sincere...

I like her demeanor. She's very respectful of others. Her smile is warm and sincere. I've never ever seen her scowl and get in people's faces with rude finger-wagging. She's coiffed, fashionable... she has good posture, and exudes confidence, good health and energy.

[spinbaby]

15. She reminds me of Obama

Cool, collected, smart.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

19. Biden/Harris, or Biden/Booker is a much stronger ticket to win in the EC in my estimation.

Biden is the perfect foil to Donald J Trump. Biden would defeat Trump.

I'd be thrilled to have Cory Booker or Kamala Harris as our president. But I'm going with the candidate I think has the highest odds of winning.

Let the battle be to see who is the heir-apparent.

[Fresh_Start]

20. if she can overcome racism and misogyny...

and that is a tall order

[Renew Deal]

23. Does she have foreign policy experience?

No, so she doesn't "check all the boxes."

Probably no one does, but it's just not accurate to say she does.

[honest.abe]

24. From wikipedia..

Foreign policy

In April 2017, responding to the Khan Shaykhun chemical attack, Harris charged Syrian president Bashar al-Assad with attacking Syrian children, and stated "the clear fact that president Assad is not only a ruthless dictator brutalizing his own people -- he is a war criminal the international community cannot ignore." She called on president Trump to work with Congress on his administration's "lack of clear objectives in Syria and articulate a detailed strategy and path forward in partnership with our allies."[188]

Harris speaks with Palestinian students at the Al-Quds University in the State of Palestine, West Bank, November 12, 2017
In 2017, Harris gave a public address to AIPAC attendees. She said: "I believe Israel should never be a partisan issue, and as long as I’m a United States senator, I will do everything in my power to ensure broad and bipartisan support for Israel’s security and right to self-defense."[189] She has opposed the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement targeting Israel.[190] Harris was a co-sponsor of a Senate resolution expressing objection to the UN Security Council Resolution 2334, which condemned Israeli settlement building in the occupied Palestinian territories as a violation of international law.[191][192][190] At the AIPAC conference, Harris said that "the first resolution I co-sponsored as a United States senator was to combat anti-Israel bias at the United Nations".[191] She also supported Senate resolution celebrating the 50th anniversary of the reunification of Jerusalem.[193][194] In late 2017, Harris traveled to Israel, where she met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[191]

In October 2017, Harris condemned the genocide of the Rohingya Muslim minority in Myanmar and called for a stronger response to the crisis.[195]

In February 2018, Harris was one of 18 Democratic senators to sign a letter to Trump stating that he lacked the authority to launch a preemptive strike against North Korea without authorization from Congress. The letter stated: "Without congressional authority, a preventative or preemptive U.S. military strike would lack either a constitutional basis or legal authority."[196]

In 2018, after Trump announced the United States was withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Harris released a statement saying the decision "jeopardizes our national security and isolates us from our closest allies" while calling the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action "the best existing tool we have to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and avoid a disastrous military conflict in the Middle East."[197] In late 2018, she voted to withdraw U.S. military aid for Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen. Harris also backed a resolution blaming Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman for the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul.[198]

Harris supported the Iran nuclear deal to prevent Iran from acquiring weapons of mass destruction.[190] In December 2018, after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the Trump administration was suspending its obligations in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 60 days in the event that Russia continued to violate the treaty, Harris was one of 26 senators to sign a letter expressing concern over the administration "now abandoning generations of bipartisan U.S. leadership around the paired goals of reducing the global role and number of nuclear weapons and ensuring strategic stability with America's nuclear-armed adversaries" and calling on Trump to continue arms negotiations.[199]

Harris voted in favor of a $675 billion defense budget bill for the 2019.[200] Harris said that North Korea is "one of the most serious security threats".[201] In February 2019, after former Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe claimed that President Trump believed the claims of President of Russia Vladimir Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies' reports on the subject of North Korea’s missile capabilities, Harris told reporters, "The idea that the president of the U.S. would take the word of the head of Russia over the intel community is the height of irresponsibility and shameful."[202]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris#Foreign_policy

[brooklynite]

25. Here's a flaw...

...she hasn't experienced serious competition from a Republican. She runs in jungle primaries rather than one-on-one, and Republicans in California are far less organized than in battleground States. Before I support her, I want to hear a solid national campaign strategy.

[BeyondGeography]

29. Just like that?

She'll have to walk through fire to win it all, just like any other top-level contender. Who knows what will come up. Even Barack Obama, the best candidate I ever saw, had to negotiate a near-death experience with the Rev. Wright nontroversy. Based on what I've seen, Harris isn't remotely at his level. She'll have a chance to prove otherwise and, if she's the frontrunner one year from now, she'll have plenty of opportunities to do so.

[Bradshaw3]

35. Of the main candidates she is the one most likely to lose to tRump

She is popular with a segment of the base and that might get her the nomination but will likely have aspects as a general election candidate that the repubs can use against her. Her only record is as a DA and AG and there are questions there. Saying no one holds grudges is also saying she has little experience in many areas. She hasn't been contested in a general election campaign and the virtues people on DU see in her could well work against her in the general. I also think she will hurt Dems's chances to take the Senate.

[honest.abe]

39. Not sure why you would say that.

I think we are going to see a massive turnout if she is the nominee. She has some of the same qualities that candidate Obama had... cool, calm, smart, charismatic, appealing, excellent stage presence. I don't like to push identity politics but there are also some voters who will positively identify with her and will be more compelled to vote. I think she's a lock to win if she is the nominee.

[Bradshaw3]

50. There will be a massive turnout on the other side as well

There will be voters in key electoral states who will be turned off by the identity politics you think will help. And she is not like Obama in one way that is crucial: he ran as a unifier while her approach and that of her supporters from what I've seen is the opposite.

Remember, just because she plays well on DU or in CA does not mean she will play well in the states the Dems need to win the electroal college, and that is the only thing that matters.

[honest.abe]

51. Our side always wins when there is a big turnout.

We have the numbers.. just need to motivate them to show up. Kamala can do that.

[Bradshaw3]

52. Two questionable assumptions

Dems don't always win big turnouts; it depends in which states and who turns out when it comes to the electroal college. Remember Hillary won the popular vote but lost the electroal college.

Your assumption that Harris can do it isn't battle tested. She has only won the general election in a very blue state. Motivating big turnouts in the battlegorund states is another matter.

[honest.abe]

53. 2018 midterm was the highest in history... we won big.

Harris getting out the vote is just my opinion based on how she is already generating tons of interest from all sort of folks in different parts of the country. Plus she just seems to have that special factor that makes a great candidate.

[Bradshaw3]

55. Apples and oranges

Mid-terms are not the electoral college. 2018 was set up for a big year as Dems were enthused while repubs were not. They will turn out in a presidential year. Your affection for Harris is understandable but, as you said, your take on her appeal from all kinds of folks is your opinion.

[honest.abe]

56. Yes, Dems were enthused in 2018 and will likely be even more enthused in 2020...

if we put up our best candidate and I think that is Kamala.

[Bradshaw3]

58. Won't be enthused if we have the same kind of infighting we saw in 2016

That requires treating those who support other candidates with respect.

I rank Harris down the list as far as electability in the general. Winning there has many elements. I hope everyone on the board understands those elements when considering who to vote for.

[Awsi Dooger]

48. I would not be confident with Kamala Harris against Trump

For many of the reasons you mentioned, plus others. A nominee from California would not be my first choice, virtually regardless of who it is. I have seen how that state is mocked in political terms among places where white males gather, or post. We can't afford to volunteer into easily stereotyped fear. That bleeds into other groups, not merely white males.

My summary would be that Harris' short stint as senator and particularly her aggressive questioning leads to an impression she is special, and that might carry over during a primary season. But once she is on her own in a national general election minefield against this lowlife president the Harris strengths would be minimized and suddenly weaknesses show up, ones that we should have foreseen.

I trust my instincts as a handicapper more than I trust Kamala's instincts against Trump. I hope Beto enters. We need an injection of true special.

Kamala right now is trading at 20 cents on Predictit, basically alongside Sanders and Biden. Beto is not too far down at 14 cents.

Harris is considered more likely here than she is viewed on the betting sites. Via that 20 cents (20 to win 80) you can receive 4/1 odds on her becoming the nominee.

[CTyankee]

43. I'm still hopiing for a Harris/Brown ticket.

Sherrod is endearing, IMO. A big labor guy with a great record. No icky stuff in his past that we know of. Midwest (did Trump win Ohio in 2016?).

Kamala would make Trump crazy and that's what we need (well, not TOO crazy) to knock him off his game. I predict immense turnover in his campaign staff as he gets angrier and angrier until he's led out of the White House in a straitjacket...

[Garrett78]

44. To those so very concerned about the white male vote and Trump's nicknames or other nonsense...

...turning out our base is what's going to win it for us. We haven't won the white vote since LBJ and the only people impressed by Trump's childish attacks are the same people who think he has "all the best words."

Nobody is going to say, "Well, I was going to vote for Harris, but Trump gave her a nickname, so I guess I'll vote for Trump."

If we have 2008-level turnout or higher, we win.

[CentralMass]

57. The polls are meaningless at this point however I looked at 538's latest where Biden, Harris, and

Sanders are included and Bernie has taken the lead in NH and has moved into 2nd above Harris by one point in SC.

However i am sure with the field thinned the dynamic will change

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/
New Hampshire

Feb 21-22, 2019
405 LV
Emerson College
Sanders 27%
Biden 25%
Harris 12%
Warren 9%
Klobuchar 8%
O'Rourke 5%
Booker 5%
Bloomberg 2%
Gillibrand 1%
Delaney 1%
Buttigieg 1%
Brown 1%
Gabbard 0%
Castro

South Carolina
S.C.
Feb 15-18, 2019
600 LV
Change Research
Biden 36%
Sanders 14%
Harris 13%
Booker 10%
Warren 9%
O'Rourke 8%
Holder 2%
Brown 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Bloomberg 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Yang 1%
Castro 1%
Swalwell 1%
Gabbard 1%
Delaney 0%
McAuliffe 0%
Cuomo 0%
Bennet 0%
Williamson 0%
de Blasio

[Garrett78]

59. "The polls are meaningless at this point..." They really are.

I feel obligated to make that point every time someone posts one of these name recognition polls (whether it's a primary preference poll or a hypothetical general election match-up poll).

[CentralMass]

60. Yes, but the pollsters work hard and we all take what we want from the numbers.

[Garrett78]

61. We don't all do that. I take nothing from them. They're meaningless.

Those who cherry-pick or say things like, "I know they're meaningless, but..." are an even bigger nuisance than those who don't recognize their meaninglessness.

[McKim]

65. Why isn't this Thread on the Special DU Forum for Candidates

Why hasn’t this thread been moved to the special DU Forum for discussing candidates. This is the third Kamala Harris supporting article here. Are the moderators not paying attention to this. This feels like bullying to me.

I want all the issues and positions out there. It is way to early to coalesce around a candidate.

[betsuni]

66. Wut?

"This is the third Kamala Harris supporting article here. Are the moderators not paying attention to this. This feels like bullying to me."


Thanks for the laffs!