The Uncomfortable Question of Bernie Sanders's Life Expectancy

[highplainsdem]

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/02/28/the-uncomfortable-question-of-bernie-sanders-life-expectancy/

A longtime reader who was a senior official government in a previous Democratic administration sent me this:

I’m sorry if this question strikes people as impolite. A 78-year old man who had a heart attack less than five months ago and refuses to release his complete medical records is the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination. If Bernie Sanders is nominated and elected president, what are the odds he can complete a full term? The answer is about 50-50.

A team of nine cardiologists recently published a study in the Journal of the American Heart Association that can help answer that question.Their study tracked the expected mortality and life expectancy of people who survive a first heart attack (myocardial infarction) at ages 65 and older. The scientists’ data are comprehensive, covering what happened to 22,295 heart attack patients admitted to U.S. hospitals from October 2004 to December 2006.

Their analysis provides two ways to estimate a person’s expected mortality and life-expectancy based on age and cardiac history. Both methods produced nearly identical results. The likelihood that a person of Senator Sanders’ age and heart history will die within one year – that takes us through September 2020 – is 25 percent. Further, the median period of survival for those patients is about five years, so the likelihood that someone of Senator Sanders’ age and heart history will survive through the next presidential term is about 50-50.

-snip-

This piece goes on to note that the CDC says that "the odds that a 78-year old American will die within one year are just over 4 percent, and the odds over five years are less than 23 percent."

So Sanders is a much greater risk for voters, in terms of his health, than either Biden or Bloomberg.

It's also noted that we could get a better idea of Sanders' prospects if he'd release his medical records, especially his heart's ejection fraction.

But Sanders is withholding this crucial information, despite his earlier promise to release it.

Because of this, the piece points out, voters will have to consider Sanders' VP choice very carefully, given the odds that his VP could become president before Sanders could serve a full term.

I believe Sanders owes it to voters to release his complete medical records NOW.

I also believe that if any of his rivals had suffered a recent heart attack, Sanders would be making more noise than anyone else DEMANDING that full medical records be released.

[redstatebluegirl]

1. Me too.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. Absolutely agree, on all points. n/t

[Moderateguy]

3. That is why it will be important with who is VP is

[Arkansas Granny]

4. I agree completely.

[thesquanderer]

5. If his VP were Warren, I wouldn't care. But also, those stats don't tell the whole story.

re:

The likelihood that a person of Senator Sanders’ age and heart history will die within one year – that takes us through September 2020 – is 25 percent. Further, the median period of survival for those patients is about five years

The problem with those kind of statistics is that everyone gets lumped together. Smokers and non-smokers. Obese and normal weight. Affluent and poor. And so forth. So a non-smoking, non-obese, affluent 78 year old, statistically, would be expected to beat those figures.

[Mosby]

10. He looks overweight though.

And we know that he is taking meds for high blood pressure, which probably resulted from years of bad eating. He clearly has coronary artery disease, we just don't know how advanced it is.

[BeyondGeography]

6. It's an absurd situation

eom

[JaneQPublic]

7. The same is true for Bernie's medical records and Trumps tax returns...

...If the records showed everything was in good order, then they'd release them. The fact they don't suggests otherwise.

Unless Bernie releases that one most important measure of his heart health -- left ventricular ejection fraction -- mentioned in the article but omitted from his doctors' letters, then all Bernie's claims of being open and authentic and transparent are just so much hot wind from an old man with a bad ticker who would turn 80 in just his first year as president.

[Roy Rolling]

26. That's it

The risk is measurable, what is the ejection factor?

Bernie can end all speculation with a good ejection number. If he knows it is low he should get ahead of the story and go public.

It isn’t a matter of the actual risk, but the amount of risk the American people are willing to accept for the benefits Bernie brings to the country as president.

In football terms, what’s the use of hiring a high-rated quarterback if he’s injured on the bench half the season? Who’s gonna run the team?

[thesquanderer]

57. re:"what's the use of hiring a high-rated quarterback if he's injured on the bench half the season?"

Big difference: A high-rate quarterback doesn't come with an equally capable backup quarterback. There's no "Vice Quarterback."

[Roy Rolling]

60. "Equally Capable"

Vice Presidents aren’t “equally capable”. They are like those smaller-size, emergency spare tires. Neither are permanent backup solutions.

[thesquanderer]

61. I think that any 78-ish candidate needs to choose an Equally Capable VP. (n/t)

[AngelicaHora]

8. I'd be concerned even if he didn't have a heart attack

This is the most important and demanding job in the world. And we're eager to give it to someone over the age of 75? It's ridiculous.

[Progressive2020]

21. Maybe

Perhaps just as ridiculous is supporting someone who is so young and inexperienced for the Presidency. Being the Mayor of a small city in Indiana is not adequate preparation for being President of the United States. Maybe we would want someone with more relevant experience?

But I admit that Bernie's age and health could be an issue. Clearly, if he gets the nomination, he should pick someone appropriate for his running mate. Someone who would be able to step in as President if needed. Someone qualified, but also younger and healthier.

[AngelicaHora]

38. How does time spent in Congress prepare someone for the presidency?

They're completely different jobs that require different skills. Sure Pete is not as seasoned as I'd like him to be, but he's certainly better prepared to be in charge of a large administration than the others. He actually has that executive experience.

He's also demonstrated a better grasp of foreign countries and world history than any of the others.

So no, I don't think it's ridiculous at all to support him. But to each their own. Clearly his inexperience in federal government is a big deal to many people.

[Progressive2020]

42. Senators And Representatives

Senators and Representatives in Congress deal with National Issues and Foreign Affairs that most local politicians do not have experience with. That includes the National Economy, National Social Programs, Defense, Intelligence, National Security, Diplomacy and Foreign Affairs. These are all relevant experiences for being President.

So, being the Mayor of a small Midwestern City is maybe not the best preparation for the White House. If Pete does not win the nomination, I am sure that he will have a future in politics if he wants it. He could run for Congress (House or Senate), try for the Governorship of Indiana, etc.

I liked Pete when he first showed up on the national stage, but I cooled on him as I got to know him better. I think that he is a little full of himself, and I found him to be rude and unnecessarily disrespectful to other candidates in the debates. This personality stuff, combined with his lack of experience, puts me in the "no column" for Pete. But hey, no one is perfect and Pete might make a fine Congressman or Governor one day. He is just not my choice for the Presidency right now.

[former9thward]

9. None of the candidates have released their full medical records.

Sanders should not be held to a standard others are not being held to.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/19/2020-democrats-medical-histories-116039

[JaneQPublic]

14. None of the others had a heart attack in the past year.

Or blacked out in the shower and cracked their head hard enough to require seven stitches.

[womanofthehills]

15. But all 3 old men have 2 stents each

And Bloomberg and Biden have irregular heart beats. Bloomberg and Biden are on blood thinners and I bet Bernie is too. Bloomberg is also on beta blockers and a statin drug. None of them sound healthy to me but they all keep going.

[Progressive2020]

22. True

I think that it is fine to have candidates that are older and have health issues. As long as they have the mental acuity and physical stamina to do the job, then it is fine to be older with health issues. If any of them gets the nomination, I am assuming that their VP choices would probably be younger and healthier candidates, as well as being qualified to step in as President, if necessary.

Anyway, just because someone is older and/or has health issues should not disqualify them. FDR was older and was in a wheel chair. He was probably the greatest President in modern American history, and one of the greatest of all time. I have no problem with a disabled candidate or someone with medical issues. As long as they can do the job and have a VP that can back them up, then I am fine with that.

[MrsCoffee]

52. Being in a wheel chair doesn't mean you on the verge of dying.

My 79 year old father died two days after having stents placed last year. The age at which you suffer a heart attack makes a difference.

[thesquanderer]

58. re: "But all 3 old men have 2 stents each"

Are you sure? I know Biden has had his own health issues, but I wasn't aware of any stents, and a google search didn't turn that up. Do you have any reference for that?

[Perseus]

27. Maybe they have had and we don't know it? They do hide things

I have not seen Biden very well, I know he stuttered when he was younger, but now his tongue seems to not move as well, that is an indication of heart problems. I hope I am wrong.

So, lets see everyone's medical records please, no exceptions.

[LizBeth]

17. Sanders: Full medical records. It is the right thing to do. Before the first vote.

[onetexan]

55. K&R

[SidDithers]

19. Bloomberg just released his heart ejection fraction...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/politics/michael-bloomberg-heart-health/index.html

Bloomberg's last annual health exam was in July and included cardiac stress testing and a stress echocardiogram, according to a letter from Dr. Stephen Sisson at Johns Hopkins University that the Bloomberg campaign shared with CNN. According to Sisson, Bloomberg's left ventricular ejection fraction was "normal" at 60-65%; his left ventricular cavity size and left ventricular function were also deemed "normal"; and his exercise capacity was described as "excellent."

Sander needs to do the same.

Sid

[LizBeth]

11. I think it is atrocious Sanders is getting away with this. Four years I have watched Trump get away

with shit he should not be able to get away with.

Sanders made a statement to us, the voter that he would release because it is the right thing to do. Release before the first vote. This is bad that he is going back on his word. Something so blatant like this, and an unneeded secret being held, breaking a promise. I am done with people in real life that do this. Sanders gets no excuses or justifications for breaking his word.

[Skittles]

20. imagine if it was a woman or POC

no way could they get away with this crap

[lees1975]

12. Agreed

He needs to release his medical records and be open about it

[k2qb3]

13. A president is not an average American.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's dumb we put people this old in critical positions, but statistically speaking people don't have staff surrounding them 24/7 and immediate access to the best healthcare in the world. Heart attack survival mostly a matter of how much time it takes to get a cath in. If Sanders lives to be elected I suspect he'll be fine.

I'm way more worried about dementia, in everyone who's likely to be President a year from now.

I'm fairly certain half of them are already showing symptoms. I'm going through it with a family member now and I see familiar things.

[Baclava]

16. VP Warren says no comment

[Cha]

18. KR!

[ancianita]

23. I think he knows, & what he intends to give voters is a first woman or Latino president. Someone

he'd keep close to him in the WH to learn the president's job. I think he's planned this. He can straighten out the Executive branch with help from previous Democratic presidents. If he didn't have big enough Senate coattails this time, then we get more coattails in 2024. .

The plan: if he gets a few key reforms in place,then resigns due to health, or dies, we'll have a Democratic incumbent in 2024. And a proven woman president or latino president, which then widens the country away from old qualifiers and turns first Catholic, first black, first Jewish, first woman president to -- just president.


I think Sanders and Warren made this deal back when the debate season got started.

I've thought this for a while now.

Just my opinion.

[Perseus]

24. Joe Biden is only one year younger than Sanders, his life expectancy may be one year better?

And the beat goes on...it doesn't stop, this Sanders bashing, does it?

[redstateblues]

34. Welcome to the club. Biden's age and fitness have been constantly questioned since he announced

Bernie looks like he is going to pop a vein when someone says something he doesn't like. He doesn't look well at all.

[Progressive2020]

25. Health Issues

I think that it is fine to have candidates that are older and have health issues. As long as they have the mental acuity and physical stamina to do the job, then it is fine to be older with health issues. If any of them gets the nomination, I am assuming that their VP choices would probably be younger and healthier candidates, as well as being qualified to step in as President, if necessary.

Anyway, just because someone is older and/or has health issues should not disqualify them. FDR was older and was in a wheel chair. He was probably the greatest President in modern American history, and one of the greatest of all time. I have no problem with a disabled candidate or someone with medical issues. As long as they can do the job and have a VP that can back them up, then I am fine with that.

I think that this is not just an issue with Sanders, but also other candidates that are older- Biden, Bloomberg, and Warren, as some have pointed out. Again, as long as someone has the ability to do the job, I am fine with older candidates who may or may not have health issues. Just as long as they are qualified to be President.

[eilen]

40. Oh come on now, FDR was 50 when he won the GE. nt

[Progressive2020]

43. Fair Enough

People are longer lived and more active now in the early 21st Century than they were back in FDR's day, but I take your point about his age. My point is, though, that FDR had serious health issues and was a great President anyway. JFK was younger, but he had a host of health issues that he was able to keep secret during his Presidency.

So I think that it is alright to have an older candidate and/or a candidate with health problems. As long as they have the mental and physical ability to do the job, then it is all good. And the choice of VP would be someone who could step in, if necessary. This has always been the main function of the VP. I think that this age stuff is just ageism. Being an older candidate should not be disqualifying. Otherwise, no Bernie, no Biden, no Bloomberg, no Warren.

[NurseJackie]

28. That's one of the top reasons that I cannot support him. Being POTUS ages you...

This piece goes on to note that the CDC says that "the odds that a 78-year old American will die within one year are just over 4 percent, and the odds over five years are less than 23 percent."

That's one of the top reasons that I cannot support him. Being POTUS ages you... I mean it SERIOUSLY ages the person who holds the office. Look at Clinton, Bush, Obama... they all look like they aged TWENTY YEARS or more. Do the math. At 78 (and considering his poor health issues) I just don't think he's got the "wiggle room" to add 20 years of stress.

[eilen]

48. It is kind of tempting to compare

the candidate to the office holder in pictures but I think you also have to take into account that when running for office, candidates have a team that addresses aesthetics from keeping well-coiffed and their hair colored & trimmed, to make-up, botox, fillers, manicures, teeth bleaching, exercise, and wardrobe. They are prepared to be in front of cameras that bounce signals to HDTVs-- all designed to appeal to people so they will vote for them. The lessons of the Kennedy Nixon debate have been learned. Once elected, they no longer need to do that and probably don't have the time (except for Trump... who probably has had a staff for that for his entire adult life). So I think you have to balance that.

[gredinger]

29. Speaker of the House

Nancy Pelosi is older than Bernie Sanders, but people didn't seem to question her life expectancy when she became Speaker of the House (the 3rd in line for President).

I'm not sure that "life expectancy" should be something to be concerned. We have processes to deal with succession anyway.

[redstateblues]

35. weak. Nancy isn't President plus women have a longer life expectancy than men

and she hasn't had a heart attack

[gredinger]

41. Age Requirements

Say Pence and Trump were both removed, would it be a concern than? Oh, we don't know her actual medical conditions. It's private information, as it should be. Or do we require city council people to release their medical records too?

[redstateblues]

45. Right ,in case a meteor hits DC. Nice deflection.

[gredinger]

47. ????

So, you're are you for or against having medical transparency requirements for political leadership?

Or are you just looking to attack Bernie? It doesn't seem like you're arguing in good faith.

[angrychair]

30. Focus on the real issues

I am not for or against Bernie but I think as Democrats our time would be better spent telling people why they should vote for your candidate than telling me why not to vote for another.

More importantly, I think that our collective focus and time should be spent on trump and not on each other.

GOTV like your life depends on it because in everything from COVID-19 to the environment, with trump in the WH, it just might.

[Progressive2020]

44. Well Said

We need to stop inflicting wounds on each other as Democrats. You are right on target. We need to unite and focus our fire on Trump, not each other. I will fight hard for whoever gets the nomination, and I will try not to undercut other Dems, even if I do not like them much. One of these people is going to be our candidate. Would should try to treat them all with respect.

[Magoo48]

31. Oh, ffs....wtf...grasp at straws much?

[MrsCoffee]

32. K&R

[keithbvadu2]

33. There is a reason he is not fulfilling his word to release the info.

There is a reason he is not fulfilling his word to release the info.

And it only leads to negative conjecture concerning his health.

[juxtaposed]

36. He could die any time but so could any of use. He looked better than most on the stage

[MrsCoffee]

51. He looks like shit.

Red face, hunched over, frail and exhausted. He is not a healthy man.

[Gothmog]

37. Where are sanders promised medical records?

What is sanders hiding?

[zackymilly]

46. It has to be something that would jeopardize his winning the nomination. n/t

[eilen]

49. Candidates for President

should not only submit the their health records (H&P, labs) but also should submit to a psychological assessment. Just so we don't end up with another narcissistic sociopath.

[myohmy2]

50. to me...

...it's less about your chronological age but more about your overall health and maintenance...

...people are coming and going all the time for a multitude of reasons...young people, old people, healthy people, sick people...

...Bernie will be just fine...he could just as likely be like my Uncle Frank who lived to be 98...

...my wife has an Aunt who's in her early nineties and has smoked every day since her teens...

...my Aunt Lee who never smoked a day in her life died at 47 from lung cancer...

...go figure...

[MrsCoffee]

54. His overall health is shit.

Without medical records you aren’t going to convince me otherwise. I got eyes and I hate to say it, but he looks like death on a stick. I hope he takes it easy soon.

While people do die randomly, we also have the means to determine if someone is at high risk of dying sooner rather than later.

[ehrnst]

63. ....overall health and maintenance.....

Last edited Tue Mar 3, 2020, 06:54 PM - Edit history (1)

...

[Srkdqltr]

53. Any one of them could have a heart attack or stroke or something at any time.

Even the younger ones. Medical reports are not guarantees.

[SidDithers]

56. He's not healthy enough to be the Democratic candidate.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/02/bernie-sanders-heart-attack-health-risk-profile-campaign.html

Granular data from one of the most influential cardiovascular trials of the 21st century shows that upon release from the hospital after a heart attack like Sanders’, the 12-month risk of either another heart attack, a stroke, or death deemed to have been caused by another cardiovascular problem in men 75 or older was at least 18.3 percent, or a little better than 1 in 5.

The good news for Sanders is that he’s fared well in the first four months after his heart attack, which is when about two-thirds of these complications generally occur. That means his risk for the remainder of the year is now likely to be around 6 percent. But because he hasn’t released the full record from his October hospitalization, we don’t know if that number is actually substantially higher or lower. Both are possible. Knowing the results of his first cardiac blood tests (which appear to have been abnormal, though the precise language we’ve been given makes this a little vague), the presence of certain key features on his electrocardiogram (the information his doctors released is conspicuously vague on this), and how long it was from the time he first experienced symptoms related to his heart attack to when his coronary arteries were stented open could markedly alter this estimate, in either direction.

snip

From the day they left the hospital, the one-year risk of at least one rehospitalization for any reason in Medicare beneficiaries who suffered a heart attack like Sanders’ was about 50 percent (the baseline annual risk among his age cohort is more like 1 in 6). Again, by virtue of four incident-free months on the trail, that number is now lower for Sanders. But his chance of another hospitalization between now and November alone likely remains between 30–35 percent

If he were to win the primary, and have another hospitalization after the convention, he'd be handing the Presidency to Trump. There's an approximately 1 in 3 chance that Sanders will have another hospitalization between now and November.

Sid

[Gothmog]

59. We need to see all of sanders medical recotds

What is sanders hiding?

[NYMinute]

62. What is Sanders hiding in those records?