Sanders could not beat Trump simply by mobilizing turnout. Here's why.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Bernie Sanders, the clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination after his commanding victory in Nevada on Saturday, often says the principal reason he can beat President Donald Trump in a general election is that he will massively increase voter turnout.

But very few Democratic strategists, from across the ideological spectrum, agree.

Sanders might find a way to win a general election if he secures the nomination. But few serious analysts in the Democratic Party believe he could win the way he says, by burying Trump under a tidal wave of new liberal voters.

The idea that the senator from Vermont can win by expanding the electorate "is the equivalent of climate denial," longtime Democratic strategist James Carville told me. "If you believe that, you are dumb as a climate denier. Not only is there no evidence to support your hypothesis; there is all the evidence in the world to refute it."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/sanders-could-not-beat-trump-simply-by-mobilizing-turnout-here-s-why/ar-BB10qOF7?ocid=msn360

[Sloumeau]

1. In three contests so far,

we have yet to see Bernie generate massive turnout. We've seen an increase in young voters like Iowa offset by a decrease in older voters.

[thesquanderer]

3. re: "We've seen an increase in young voters like Iowa offset by a decrease in older voters."

If that's true as a pattern, then that benefits Sanders, because you're adding younger voters who tend to like him, and taking away older voters who more often don't.

[Sloumeau]

5. The article was talking about Bernie Sanders promising a huge increase in Democratic voters.

My point was, that it was not happening. Yes, you are correct that an increase in younger voters and a decrease in older voters helps Bernie Sanders, but it has not been translating into a big increase in Democratic voters. Sanders knows he does better with younger voters, so he focused a lot of his resources on things like setting up tables on college campuses. Buttigieg knew where Bernie was putting his resources, so Mayor Pete focused on rural areas and small towns in order to scoop up what Bernie was ignoring.

The problem is, younger voters are generally the least reliable voters to show up. In addition, if a candidate appeals to younger voters but not older voters, we may a 1972 type McGovern election all over again. Many of the older Democratic Voters simply do not want to vote for Bernie Sanders.

[thesquanderer]

9. I think that when Bernie says he will inspire a huge increase in turnout, he means...

...that he will inspire a huge increase in turnout of people who will vote for HIM. I think we can assume that increasing the turnout of people who will vote for other candidates is not part of his plan. So to the extent that the new voters he brings in are young, that skews to his benefit. Even if it's balanced by other voter demographics going down.

[George II]

4. In Iowa he boasted of having 25,000 volunteers in the state for months, yet he got....

....only 45,000 votes. That's 1.8 votes per volunteer.

[NurseJackie]

8. Smoke and mirrors. Hoping to create a surge by creating the illusion of a surge...

Smoke and mirrors. Hoping to create a surge by creating the illusion of a surge. Let's face it, there are a lot of woefully ill-informed and low-information voters out there who are perfectly happy to "go with the flow" and (essentially) let someone else choose their candidate on their behalf. They do this by hopping on a bandwagon because even the "low information" voter wants to support someone who's perceived to be a winner. Therefore by creating the illusion of being-on-a-roll, or having-it-in-the-bag... certain candidates are hoping to get the low-information voters support.

[TwilightZone]

2. We've been hearing the promise of a massive wave of new voters for five years now.

It hasn't materialized. He tried to take credit for a wave in Iowa 2020, but his statement on the matter proved to be false.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/sanders-spins-young-voter-turnout-in-iowa/

Turnout will be very important, of course, but we can't win with a primary emphasis on young voters over groups that are much more reliable, just like we can't win with just liberals and progressives, writing off the rest of the electorate.

We didn't win in 2018 because we focused on progressives and young voters. We won because we appealed to a much wider scope, including the moderate middle that some seem to abhor or pretend doesn't exist.

[ChubbyStar]

7. Of course the vaunted middle

Inspector Clouseau: What is the price of one piano compared to the terrible crime that's been committed here? Housekeeper: But that's a priceless Steinway! Inspector Clouseau: Not anymore.

[TwilightZone]

10. About 50% of Democrats self-ID as moderate or conservative.

And that's just Democrats. If our 45% or so of independents identify similarly, that's a significant chunk of the electorate. We can't win with just half of each group.

Many routinely assume and often insist that Democrats and left-leaning independents are all like us, a bunch of liberal/progressive political junkies. They're not. We're probably closer to the exception than the rule. Understanding that is a big part of the puzzle.

[sdfernando]

11. OMG!...My roomie and I were just doing that scene with eachother last night

Clouseau: What is your name?

Houskeeper: Mrs. Leverlilly

Clouseau: Well Mrs. Lovelever....

[ChubbyStar]

13. Sellers was a genius

Damn I miss him.

[NurseJackie]

6. "is the equivalent of climate denial,"

[Gothmog]

12. Research reveals that Sen. Sanders's electability is based on a polling mirage

Link to tweet

[LuvNewcastle]

14. Any gains made by Sanders with the young voters would be

eclipsed by the moderates he would turn away. And moderates are a much more dependable voting block. The only way Sanders could win a general election is if things truly go to hell between now and the election. Two of the Horsemen of the Apocalypse, Pestilence and Famine, could be on their way, but I don't want a visit from them in order to get Democrats in control of the government.

Sanders might have had a chance in 2016, but his time has passed. Too bad we didn't nominate Sanders then. If he had lost then, we could be nominating Hillary this time. I think she would have had a better chance in 2020, even winning the electoral college.