538: Biden has a 97% chance of winning South Carolina

[Gravitycollapse]

Pretty good odds.

[yaesu]

1. yep, he needs to win big there & I think he will. nt

[Gravitycollapse]

2. And it's going to make Super Tuesday extremely interesting.

[AGeddy]

3. I agree. I think a big SC win for Biden causes Bloomberg's numbers to dive everywhere on Tuesday

So 538's current numbers for Bloomberg are pretty inflated, I think.


I don't see a rationale for Klobuchar or Buttigieg for continuing after Tuesday. Pete won't finish higher than 3rd on any state on Tuesday, and Klobuchar will be in 5th or 6th in every state but Minnesota. Both of them will have early speeches Tuesday night, but will be out of the race on Wednesday morning.


I think Warren does just well enough in CA to get a nice chunk of delegates there, but other than MA she will struggle to get any delegates on Tuesday. But I think she stays in until at least March 17th.


It will really be a two-person race after Tuesday, with Bloomberg hanging around so he can spend money without limits. But Bloomberg won't attack Biden at all - he will be the stalking horse spending money that indirectly helps Biden by attacking Bernie and Trump.


The March 10 and March 17 states are more favorable for Biden too.

[thesquanderer]

14. I agree, a strong Biden win hurts Bloomberg. That's why I'm rooting for Biden in SC...

...even though I prefer Sanders to Biden. I'd rather see Sanders and Biden as the two big winners of Super Tuesday than Sanders and Bloomberg. If our nominee ends up being one of the moderates, I'd rather it was Biden than Bloomberg.

[Skittles]

4. so it will be odd if he doesn't

yup

[Gravitycollapse]

6. And if nothing happens you'll stop complaining, right?

[onetexan]

12. HEAR! HEAR!

Go Joe!

[blue-wave]

7. A big win for Joe

will have the talking heads turning their heads. It's what they will be talking about all the way into Super Tuesday. It's starting to get interesting.

[Sloumeau]

8. I feel like a guy at blackjack table praying for a card.

"Come on, 21!"

[TCJ70]

9. Pretty sure that's always been expected...

...and things that are expected generally don’t change things much.

[TwilightZone]

15. Their model had Sanders with the edge for a while.

That never seemed terribly likely. It seems that momentum and national polls are perhaps more of a factor in their state race predictions than might be warranted.

[texasfiddler]

10. Did they throw the pro Bernie trump voters

Into the simulations?

[helpisontheway]

11. Without Putin puppets interfering...nt

[honest.abe]

13. I think the question is not if Biden wins but by how much.

If he wins by 20+ points which some polls show that could be huge momentum into ST. Also, if Sanders is < 15% he will get zero delegates. That will be tough to explain away for the supposed "front runner".