Prediction: Bloomberg's polling will collapse over the next 72 hours

[AGeddy]

To the extent that any outfits poll over the next 3 days, they will see a big drop in Bloomberg's polling.


Voters who were saying they were for Bloomberg in polls are very soft support. They did so because they thought Biden's campaign was going under and wanted to back the person they thought could be a "firewall" against Bernie.


With Joe showing real momentum, Bloomberg is going to see a massive drop in his numbers.


Bloomberg won't win a single state on Super Tuesday. He might not come in 2nd in any state.

[empedocles]

1. BS 'collapse' is the bigger question

[AGeddy]

2. No, Bernie's supporters are generally rock-solid.

In that very important way, they are like Trump supporters.


But the good news is that Bernie's supporters are a minority of the Democratic party - a sizeable chunk sure, but a minority.

[Codeine]

3. His numbers will remain stable, I believe.

His fandom is sufficiently dedicated that they won’t be moving on regardless of what happens.

[empedocles]

9. Seems that when Mayor Pete, Steyer, Amy, drop out that goes to JB.

MB becomes just a money supporter but against trump and BS, chunk of Elizabeth supporters go to JB.

Then the BS media bubble deflates quite a bit - however, he will still get delegates. [Imo, for worse or worse, BS will be a Dem winning problem well into the fall]

[blue-wave]

4. Just one minor correction

It's "Joementum!"


I agree. Bloomberg's campaign will collapse.

[Happyhippychick]

5. Bloomberg is speaking tomorrow on coronavirus

That might give him a boost

[Garrett78]

6. That anyone supports Bloomberg is shameful.

Who all has read the complaint against him and his executives, or any number of his other horrifying statements? How can anyone in good conscience possibly support him or think he wouldn't alienate POC, LGBTQ, youth and women? He'd be an absolute disaster come November. I know, I know, it's perfectly fine to say that about Sanders, but not Bloomberg. I've had anti-Bloomberg posts removed before and I'm sure this one won't be any different. Whatever.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Anyone who thinks he would alienate those groups is a grub worm

Asleep deep in the dirt

The opponent is Donald Trump. Elections are won by preference, not turnout. The variance is in the middle, not the extremes.

But I'm sure you'll have the same batch of 4 desperate links, including Rachel Bitecofer who thought we were going to win Texas with its 44% self-identified conservatives.

At least it's worth a belly laugh every day. Maybe I should throw out my ideological system with its 28 year history and rely on Rachel Bitecofer

[OnDoutside]

7. If his numbers do drop, someone suggested that he could stay in and

Pump his money straight into ads supporting Joe v Sanders, which would be within campaign expenses rules.

The big hope is that Warren stays in as long as possible.

[Celerity]

13. More of Warren voters would move to Biden if she drops out

than would move to Bernie I think. The Berners HATE HATE HATE Warren, especially after she gave Bernie a right proper slap or two last night in her speech.

She has no path anyway. If Sanders had not run this year, I think she would have been, perhaps, the nominee, as the entire dynamic would have been different feom the start. The visceral campaign of hate from certain non DU Sanders forces would have never occurred.

Bernie simply running at all has been the single most damaging thing to our chances to defeat Trump and hold the House. He picked a terrible election cycle to try and totally go to war with the party and remake it in his image. Trump is the biggest syatemic threat to the nation since WWII. Madness to try and flamethrower light up an ideology-based cleavage conflict when we are starring down the barrel of a nation-threatening cannon like Trump.

[OnDoutside]

14. Great post. I do accept that the Berners hate Warren, though I wonder if there are progressive

Warren voters who (aside from anything else) feel it is important to support the female candidate, and may be tempted to move to Sanders if she dropped out ? However, certainly the hate campaign by them, won't help Sanders, that's for sure. Indeed Elizabeth's speech yesterday laid out that she's not happy about it.

[PatSeg]

10. Good point

Lately I've been hearing a lot of complaints about Bloomberg bombarding people with mailers and TV commercials. People are getting tired of it. Sometimes, less is more, but I don't think someone like Bloomberg understands that. He's always been able to buy whatever he wants.

Welcome to DU!!!

[karynnj]

15. The Bloomberg and Steyer campaigns might show that money spent on ads is not linearly related

to votes gained. Clearly, some advertising is helpful and there are examples where lack of money forced candidates to go dark in states where they were gaining and that trend ended. However, the idea that you need to have a "competitive" amount of ads, if defined as similar to the other candidates, will be rejected.

In South Carolina, Biden spoke of being outspent by 40 to 1 - I don't know what the claim was based on - was it Steyer's spending or the entire opposition's spending. In past elections, it has not always been the best funded person who won. In 2004, in the run up to the actual votes, Dean had FAR more money than anyone and his team far outspent everyone in Iowa and NH - and he lost both to Kerry, who by November 2003 had so little money and was getting few contributions that he mortgaged his half of his and Teresa's Boston home to loan his campaign enough money to continue competing in Iowa, where he knew he was gaining support. Even with that loan, he had far less money to spend in Iowa and from many accounts, his team was very frugal in spending what they had.

I live in Vermont. Obviously not a delegate state and not hospitable to Bloomberg (in my estimation - he is not "Vermonty" in the least. It is entirely possible that Sanders again gets all our delegates, but also possible that Warren or one of the others is able to get above the 15% and take some delegates. Yet, my husband and I have gotten at least 5 or 6 glossy mailings from Bloomberg. ( That he is not concerned with cost shows that his mailing list do not bother to combine obvious couples with the same address.) In addition, on medians or public land in Burlington - Sanders' home town - there are Bloomberg 2020 signs -- not so much at people's homes. If Bloomberg has people doing this much in Vermont -- I can only imagine how excessive it isin states he reasonably thought he could win!

Listening to MSNBC speaking of how Biden will not have enough time to use the money he gained due to his big win to run ads on SuperTuesday and how this is unlucky, I am struck by their acceptance that people listen to campaign ads over news and over their own long familiarity with the former VP. ( I think their point might have been truer for someone - Buttigieg or Klobuchar for instance - who are less known. Then ads could have helped define the person helping those who might for the first time seriously consider the person. )

[PatSeg]

16. A certain about advertising

of course is helpful, but him you overwhelm people with ads and the god-awful mailers, they get sick of you. Soon Bloomberg and even Steyer become less of an interesting alternative and more of an annoyance.

That's interesting that Bloomberg even had signs all over Vermont, a state with little over 600,000 people. Its like a mindless spending frenzy. Maybe there are people taking advantage of his willingness to spend whatever it takes. I'm not sure he knows how to run a national campaign, but there are plenty of people willing to take his money.

You know, Trump really didn't spend a lot of money in 2016 and his ground game apparently sucked, probably because he didn't expect to win. In spite of the fortune Jeb Bush spent, Trump won the nomination and the general election. Clearly, it is about more than the money that is spent, especially in today's digital age.

[squirecam]

11. If Bloomberg drops further

Biden is the likely beneficiary.

[honest.abe]

12. Yes I agree.

This will have big impact on ST.

[Hav]

17. The worst case scenario from Biden's perspective is

Bloomberg getting a considerable amount of voters that would have gone to non-BS candidates while not being viable to receive delegates based on the 15% threshold. That's particularly true for CA. If he doesn't drop out before Tuesday which is very unlikely, him getting 15% might be better for Biden than a result in the 10-14% range. In that case, BS gains proportionally while Bloomberg wouldn't even have any delegates he could release at the convention.