Bernie Sanders has the advantage on Super Tuesday

[bluewater]

The Democratic presidential campaign has produced as many questions as answers in the first four contests of the year. On Tuesday, things will begin to change, as the candidates enter what could be the decisive, if not conclusive, month in the battle for their party’s nomination.

What has been a state-by-state battle over the past month will suddenly explode into a nationalized contest on Tuesday, with establishment Democrats worried about the strength of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) but not settled on the strongest alternative.
Former vice president Joe Biden, with his blowout victory Saturday in South Carolina, made a strong case that he should be that person, but Super Tuesday voters will barely have time to digest those results before they, and the candidates, are plunged into the biggest and most important day of the Democratic nominating campaign.

By the time the votes from Tuesday’s contests are counted, and all the delegates allocated, at least two things should become clearer. One is whether Sanders has emerged with an insurmountable lead in the delegate race. The other, if Sanders’s delegate lead is not so big, is whether Biden or someone else might be positioned to overtake him.
Sanders heads toward Super Tuesday’s contests in an enviable position. But given growing resistance to his candidacy among establishment Democrats, he needs a strong performance Tuesday to put a lock on becoming the delegate leader heading to the national convention in Milwaukee in July.

“Bernie is the clear front-runner, but he’s got to get a lead, and a substantial lead, to consolidate his position,” said Tad Devine, who worked for Sanders’s campaign in 2016 and who advised Andrew Yang this year.

No day on this year’s primary-caucus calendar sets up any better for Sanders than this year’s Super Tuesday. One reason is his perceived strength in California, where 415 delegates will be distributed. Other factors include the higher percentage of Latino voters in some of the Super Tuesday states, particularly Texas with its 228 delegates. Beyond that, primaries in the future are mostly closed, denying Sanders the votes of independents, one of his best constituencies.

Campaign strategists can’t say just how well Sanders will be positioned after Super Tuesday. There are simply too many variables — too many candidates, too much fluidity and too many combinations about possible outcomes. Campaigns have been modeling the states and constantly tweaking internal projections. As one strategist put it: “It’s an insane Rubik’s cube.”
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Heading into Tuesday, the fractured opposition gives Sanders a potentially significant advantage. The senator from Vermont is the only candidate who is broadly viable across all the states and districts, meaning he is likely to break the threshold in almost every congressional or state Senate district.

The other candidates are in a more tenuous position, hovering in polls somewhere just below or just above the 15 percent threshold that determines viability for delegates. No one can predict with any certainty how any of the others will do in the district-by-district competition, but their individual and collective results will shape both their and Sanders’s delegate hauls.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bernie-sanders-has-the-advantage-on-super-tuesday-as-rivals-jockey-to-hold-down-his-delegate-count/2020/02/29/750e8b58-5a43-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html

[MrsCoffee]

1. Lol.

[underpants]

2. Socialism

Any analysis that doesn't factor in the effect that that branding has had on him is insufficient.

[HeartlandProgressive]

3. lol Sanders will have a big day