DU Poll Results of Secondary "Plan B" Candidates at DU

[Bucky]

Last week (Saturday thru Wednesday) I did an informal poll that I think can give some perspective on what the contest will look like in the next month of two ahead. I used to do data analysis for market research surveys (including politician clients) and I think the findings are pretty instructive for both DU and the party at large.

Caveat

Let me start by saying this is not science, or at least not quantitative science. My findings are more along the lines of case study science, or qualitative analysis for those of you who know about market research, my one time profession.

Also, as long as I'm hedging, this is not a study of DUers, but a sampling of DUers who participate in the primaries forum, which is to say people who are interested enough to pay attention to and take sides in the democratic primary race. And to that extent I'm postulating that they are representative of how different preference groups within the party and this website are thinking. Anyway, if you care about this community, this will give you a picture of where we are and where we're headed. If you'd like the excel file I grinded this out on, PM me

Method

I posed a simple request to DUers in this forum: List your top four candidates in order of who you'd support. The thread is here: LINK

I then tallied the results. When people didn't make four choices (a few made only one) I left those spots blank. When respondents were unclear (e.g., "I'm torn between Candidate X and Candidate Y" ) I asked them to specify or I recorded their preferences in the order named (as above, labeled X as choice 1 and Y as choice 2). This is in keeping with standard market research methodology when dealing with unclear respondent preferences. I kicked the thread twice in order to insure it appeared at different times of the day.

A total of 98 DUers responded to this question. 78 named four preferences, 10 only named three, 5 named only two, and 5 wouldn't name a back-up preference (2 for Biden, 2 for Warren, and 1 for Bloomberg).

Findings

Top Preference
Top Preference was only a control. The website already records this. But it pleased me that the survey results closely paralleled what DUers overall have expressed:

Vote-Candid.- %age - DU Pref% (excluding undecideds)*
35 - Warren . – 35.7 – 33.9
28 – Biden. . – 28.6 – 27.1
19 – Sanders- 19.4 – 22.0
8 - Buttigieg..- 08.2 – 08.5
4 - Klobuchar.- 04.1 – 04.2
2 -Bloomberg- 02.0 - 01.7
1 – Gabbard – 01.0 - nil
1 – Steyer. . – 01.0 - nil

Percentages were current as of Wednesday, altho Biden preferences have edged up since (congrats, Joe!). These totals exclude Undecideds, which were at 41% on Feb 25th.

Top Four Mentions

So the respondents seem to be quite close to representative of the DU Primaries forum community. The number of unweighted mentions for each candidate gives a sense of who is at least acceptable to the DU voters. There, Warren was the most overall "acceptable" candidate at 91%. However Joe Biden ran a relatively close second at 78%. This should not be contstrued to mean others are unaccepted in inverse proportion to their mentions, only that they were not in the top four.

89 – Warren. – 90.8%
76 – Biden. . – 77.6
56 -Klobuchar- 57.1
55 -Buttigieg .- 56.1
50 – Sanders – 51.0
18 – Steyer. . – 18.4
09 -Bloomberg– 09.2
04 – Gabbard – 04.1


Weighted mentions

Of course there's a difference between being picked 1st and 4th. Just randomly I weighted each preferential placement as worth (respectively) 4, 3, 2, and 1 "votes", to index overall support, resulting in 925 'votes'. This is the least scientific component of this report, but slightly differentiates the weight of preference.

275 Warren
205 Biden
154 Sanders
118 Buttigieg
112 Klobuchar
-29 Steyer
-20 Bloomberg
-12 Gabbard

Second & Third Choices

With Super Tuesday (March 3rd) about to bump a few candidates out of the race (this was written pre-Pete's withdrawal), the most important part of the study was answering "Who will they go to next?" But it is also a key factor when all three national frontrunners are in their 70s and death's gristly hand is knocking at their doors. (Sorry, I keed, I keed!)

Biden

Respondents preferring Biden favored Warren (46%) or Klobuchar (25%) if their candidate isn't the nominee. Pete Buttigieg was mostly likely to be their third choice

2nd choice Biden
13 Warren
7 Klobuchar
4 Buttigieg
1 Bloomberg
1 Sanders
2 none

3rd choice Biden
14 Buttigieg
5 Klobuchar
3 Bloomberg
2 Warren
1 Steyer



Sanders

Respondents preferring Sanders almost unanimously preferred Warren as their back up. Their Plan Cs tended toward Biden (58%), so Biden seems to be a nominee they can at least acquiesce to. This suggests that it will be important for Biden supporters, in the event of his nomination, not to alienate Sanders supporters during the remaining primary contests. But shouldn't that be true of all of us?

2nd choice Sanders
18 Warren
1 Gabbard

3rd choice Sanders
11 Biden
3 Klobuchar
1 Buttigieg
1 Steyer



Warren

With Warren (the candidate with the largest national share of support who is also underperforming in the delegate contests), her supporters are the most critical to watch. Here there is good news for Sanders supporters. Among respondents, 18 of the 35 Warren backers (51%) said their go-to is Bernie. The rest were evenly split among the three moderate Democrats. Forced to a 3rd choice, 10 went with Klobuchar, 9 with Biden. Maintaining this positive situation makes it far more important for Sanders supporters to create welcoming campaign prior to the second-tier candidates pulling out of race.

2nd choice Warren
18 Sanders
5 Biden
5 Buttigieg
4 Klobuchar
1 Steyer
2 none

3rd choice Warren
10 Klobuchar
9 Biden
6 Sanders
5 Buttigieg
1 Gabbard
1 Steyer


others

There were not enough respondents for other candidates to draw valid conclusions, but lumped together, they generally replicate overall patterns. Out of those 15 DUers not preferring the top three candidates, Warren (at 7) and Biden (at 5) were the most likely Plan B candidates

2nd choice others
7 Warren
5 Biden
1 Gabbard
1 Klobuchar
1 Steyer

3rd choice others
5 Biden
3 Sanders
3 Warren
2 Klobuchar
1 Buttigieg
1 Steyer


Thought experiments

If DU had a traditional run-off system, where the top two candidates ran in a second round, you would approximate who a runoff election would select. This is achieved by looking at each respondents' 2nd, 3rd, or 4th until one of the top two finishers is mentioned. The result would be Warren over Biden (64%-36%). However this doesn't seem likely on a national scale.

The measure of a run-off between Joe and Bernie is too heavily weighted to Warren supporters to accurately reflect national trends, but among DU respondents to the survey the runoff would result in a very close contest. In the first preference, Biden is at a clear example. But when Warren's voters left in the second round, Sanders essentially closed the gap.

cand- 1st- 2nd- 3rd- 4th Rounds of candidate preference
Biden - 28 - 10 - 8 - 3
Sand. - 19 - 18 - 5 - 1

So the final run-off vote would be 49-43 (JB-53% to BS-47%) with 6% not voting. Of course with this margin of error, that's essentially a tie.

Next, I wondered what if this forum had a bottom-elimination system (the way Canadian parties select their prime minister candidates)? Then you'd get a different result

Round one would eliminate Steyer and Gabbard with their single votes each. Round Two would eliminate Bloomberg with his very expensive 2 DU voters. Factoring in secondary choices, Round Three would look like this, eliminating Klobuchar:

36 Warren
29 Biden
19 Sanders
8 Buttigieg
4 Klobuchar

Round Four would remove Buttigieg:
37 Warren
30 Biden
20 Sanders
8 Buttigieg

Round Five would bounce the Bern:
41 Warren
34 Biden
20 Sanders

Leading to the final round:
60 Warren
34 Biden


Of course things in the real world don’t work that way. I'm 56 and I can tell you, life is all about...

Settling

When we look at who'd settle for whom, we again run into Warren's strength as a unity candidate. Among the 28 who said they'd dance with Elizabeth if they can't have Mr. or Ms. Right, were half of the Biden voters and almost all of Sanders. That's 38 out of 63 (or 60% of) non-Warren supporters would get with her as their second choice.

So... Who'd settle for Warren?
18 Sanders
13 Biden
3 Buttigieg
2 Klobuchar
1 Gabbard
1 Steyer



Most (57%) of Warren's DUrs would vote for Sanders next in line. One Biden supporter also said Bernie is his number two. That person must be the happiest Democrat tonight.

So... Who'd settle for Sanders?
18 Warren
1 Biden



Joe did not do well in second choice voting; he only got 10 "twos", compared to 25 "threes" and 13 "fours". This makes him look more acquiesced to than preferred. Don't worry, Joe, that was also my strategy in high school. The upside is that he was mentioned acceptable by 78%. In the McDonald's Restaurant of life, Joe Biden is the Big Mac. That is, when there's a big hungry crowd lined up behind you and you're under pressure to pick an item off the menu quickly, he's who you'll go with in a pinch.

So... Who'd settle for Biden?
5 Warren
3 Buttigieg
1 Bloomberg
1 Klobuchar



Amy Klobuchar got more #two picks than Biden, mostly from DU Bidenites who were asked "who's next"? Coupled with a presumed win in her home state on Mar 3, if these stats bear out for all Democrats, she's the second tier candidate in the best position to pursue the fight.

So... Who'd settle for Klobuchar?
7 Biden
4 Warren
1 Buttigieg


Executive Summary

We need to fuck up Trump's bullshit hard in November


Raw Data

The voting totals looked like this -

cand's - 4th - 3rd - 2nd - 1st
Biden - 13 - 25 - 10 - 28
Bloomberg - 3 - 3 - 1 - 2
Buttigieg - 17 - 21 - 9 - 8
Gabbard - 0 - 1 - 2 - 1
Klobuchar - 20 - 20 - 12 - 4
Sanders - 3 - 9 - 19 - 19
Steyer - 11 - 4 - 2 - 1
Warren - 11 - 5 - 38 - 35
Total - 78 - 88 - 93 - 98

The 98 survey responses were graded thus -

1 - Warren - Klobuchar - Sanders - Biden
2 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar
4 - Biden - Klobuchar - Buttigieg - Warren
5 - Biden - Warren - Klobuchar - Sanders
6 - Warren - Sanders - Biden - Buttigieg
7 - Biden - Warren - Klobuchar - Sanders
8 - Warren - Sanders - Biden - Klobuchar
9 - Sanders - Warren - Buttigieg - Biden
11 - Sanders - Warren - Biden - Buttigieg
12 - Warren - Buttigieg - Biden - Klobuchar
13 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar
14 - Sanders - Warren - Biden - Steyer
15 - Sanders - Warren - -
16 - Sanders - Warren - Klobuchar - Biden
17 - Sanders - Warren - Biden - Buttigieg
18 - Warren - Sanders - Buttigieg - Biden
19 - Sanders - Warren - Biden - Steyer
20 - Warren - Sanders - Klobuchar - Buttigieg
21 - Biden - Klobuchar - Buttigieg - Warren
22 - Sanders - Warren - -
24 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar
25 - Klobuchar - Biden - Sanders - Warren
26 - Sanders - Warren - Biden - Buttigieg
27 - Warren - - -
28 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar
29 - Sanders - Warren - Biden -
30 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar
31 - Warren - Sanders - Klobuchar - Buttigieg
32 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg -
33 - Warren - Sanders - Buttigieg -
34 - Biden - Klobuchar - Buttigieg - Warren
35 - Sanders - Warren - Biden - Steyer
36 - Buttigieg - Warren - Biden -
37 - Warren - Sanders - Buttigieg - Biden
38 - Buttigieg - Gabbard - Biden - Klobuchar
39 - Warren - Sanders - Steyer - Buttigieg
40 - Sanders - Warren - Biden - Steyer
41 - Sanders - Warren - Biden -
42 - Biden - Buttigieg - Klobuchar - Bloomberg
43 - Bloomberg - Biden - Warren - Steyer
44 - Gabbard - Warren - Sanders - Buttigieg
45 - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar - Biden
46 - Warren - - -
48 - Sanders - Warren - Klobuchar - Buttigieg
49 - Steyer - Warren - Klobuchar - Sanders
51 - Biden - - -
53 - Biden - Warren - Bloomberg - Klobuchar
54 - Biden - Klobuchar - Steyer - Buttigieg
55 - Buttigieg - Biden - Warren - Bloomberg
56 - Sanders - Warren - Biden - Klobuchar
57 - Biden - Warren - Klobuchar - Buttigieg
59 - Warren - Klobuchar - Biden -
61 - Klobuchar - Warren - Biden - Buttigieg
62 - Biden - Buttigieg - Klobuchar - Warren
63 - Warren - Klobuchar - Biden - Buttigieg
64 - Warren - Sanders - Biden - Klobuchar
65 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar
66 - Biden - Bloomberg - Buttigieg -
68 - Buttigieg - Biden - Klobuchar - Warren
70 - Buttigieg - Warren - Biden - Steyer
73 - Biden - Klobuchar - Buttigieg - Warren
74 - Warren - Buttigieg - Sanders - Klobuchar
75 - Klobuchar - Warren - Buttigieg -
77 - Warren - Sanders - Biden - Klobuchar
78 - Warren - Sanders - Klobuchar - Biden
79 - Sanders - Warren - Steyer - Klobuchar
80 - Bloomberg - - -
81 - Sanders - Gabbard - -
82 - Warren - Sanders - Klobuchar - Biden
83 - Warren - Biden - Klobuchar - Buttigieg
84 - Biden - Klobuchar - Bloomberg - Warren
85 - Warren - Sanders - Biden - Buttigieg
86 - Warren - Biden - Sanders - Klobuchar
87 - Buttigieg - Warren - Biden - Steyer
88 - Buttigieg - Biden - Steyer - Warren
89 - Warren - Biden - Buttigieg - Klobuchar
90 - Warren - Sanders - Biden -
91 - Warren - Sanders - Buttigieg - Biden
93 - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar - Biden
94 - Biden - - -
95 - Warren - Steyer - Klobuchar - Biden
96 - Warren - Biden - Sanders - Klobuchar
98 - Biden - Sanders - -
99 - Sanders - Warren - Biden -
100 - Biden - Klobuchar - Warren - Buttigieg
101 - Warren - Klobuchar - Sanders - Biden
102 - Warren - Biden - Klobuchar - Bloomberg
103 - Biden - Buttigieg - Bloomberg - Warren
104 - Warren - Sanders - -
105 - Biden - Buttigieg - Warren - Steyer
107 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg - Klobuchar
108 - Warren - Sanders - Gabbard - Steyer
109 - Sanders - Warren - Klobuchar - Buttigieg
110 - Klobuchar - Steyer - Sanders - Warren
111 - Warren - Buttigieg - Sanders - Klobuchar
112 - Buttigieg - Klobuchar - Warren - Steyer
113 - Warren - Sanders - Klobuchar - Biden
114 - Biden - Warren - Buttigieg - Steyer

[Gravitycollapse]

1. Clearly DU is not representative of the rest of the world.

30% of Biden supporters' second choice is Sanders.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[TwilightZone]

3. That was pre-SC.

The race has changed a bit since then. It'll be interesting to see what their next one shows.

[Gravitycollapse]

5. For sure. But almost no Biden supporters on DU rank Sanders as second choice.

Which is dramatically different from the general population.

[Bucky]

7. I would hazard a guess that DUers are a good deal more engaged in the race dynamics and differences

And that's going to lead to sharper distinctions. Most of the deviance is a result of Warren being way overrepresented in this survey and the Bernie supporters being probably a little more ideological and less emotion-driven than the general population.

Like I said in my summary: Joe is the Big Mac on the menu. If you don't know anyone else, he's plenty likeable, experienced, and engaging. He doesn't scare off voters; he just sometimes loses them to more rigorous and more message-driven candidates. I notice that Biden just got a nice bump following Buttigieg's exit announcement.

[Bucky]

9. 2nd choices aren't far off from my anecdotal research

Sanders voters break 35-23 for Warren and Biden.

Bloomie voters go 32 Biden and... wait for it.. 27% Bernie. (!!!!!)
- That tells me people still voting mostly on emotion, name ID, and sense of message, not ideology.

Biden votes going 29% for Bernie; 25% Bloomberg
- Mike's rep is trashed by his own policies and gaffes.

Warrenites are 40% for Sanders next.

This is all mostly about connecting to identity and name recognition. This is why Republican ad hominem campaigns always work.

[Bucky]

4. Thanks!

I love minutiae

[TwilightZone]

2. Run-off is in the same order as candidate preference.

Interesting that it holds up even with ranked choices.

When Pete was removed earlier from the preference board, it was Warren, Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, which is the reverse order in which they were bumped.

If you said that somewhere in the post, I apologize. I did a pretty heavy skim, but will admit I didn't read every word.

[Bucky]

6. I appreciate what you did read.

This is largely for me and my OCD, but I think it's important to remember the interconnectedness of the party and of this web community.

[blm]

8. Gotcha. Good to keep that in mind.

[TwilightZone]

11. I'm a numbers nut and a bit OCD myself.

Ok, maybe more than a bit.

I thought the original idea was excellent and I appreciate the effort it took to provide results. I also appreciated the humor and the "Big Mac" bit was hilarious - and perfect. You know I'm going to spend the rest of the campaign thinking of him that way....

[2naSalit]

10. Wow that's a lot of effort!

But much appreciated!

[Bucky]

12. I hope it brings clarity to a few more people

It's not getting much attention so far

[2naSalit]

13. Hmmm.

Well I appreciate it. I don;t do stats very well myself but I understand the result and am thankful to those for whom this is a simple or pleasant task. I know people who just love it.

[ancianita]

16. I love this layout.

Your statistical effort is much appreciated.

I'd like to see you do this again after today, if you're inclined.

We're not representative of the country, yet this affirms how we look at Warren's and Biden's measurable accomplishments, current campaign styles, such that most Americans could be sold to put their vote of trust on them.

[Bucky]

18. Sure, I'mup for it.

Just need to find the right moment.

If this becomes a two-person race I'm not sure what I would ask people about, though

[ancianita]

20. I hear you.This works for heading into the convention, tho'. If Warren wins any battleground, she's

got more leverage beyond DU, I'm hoping.

Primary trends can change our numbers here faster than you should have to sort through, anyway.

Thanks.

[JGug1]

14. Favoring Warren

I am fascinated by the fact that here on Democratic Underground and on Kos people favor Warren over any other candidate. WHY? Warren has much less chance of beating Trump. That is simply what the polls say. Biden runs best against Trump. When Trump first started his illegal assault on Biden, I thought he might be bullshitting us but now, I think it was one of the few times in his life Trump told the truth. He is more afraid of running against Biden than any of the others.
Gimme Biden, PLEASE.

[jaxexpat]

17. When/if the contest is Warren VS Trump........

, Warren will, in a head to head forum, trounce the creepy guy. That's why Trump doesn't mention her so much these days. He thinks that if HE doesn't acknowledge her then no one else will remember her. He thinks that if he demonizes Biden, Biden would become a wounded candidate. That could be a good plan. There's plenty of he/said/she/said to keep the Fox Nation turned off to Joethusiasm. (That shit spreads, you know. What is at once an offhand talking-headed untruth becomes tomorrow's screaming banner and next week's leading story. Then in six months it's grand jury testimony.)
BTW, FWIW and IMO, Biden can and will shoot himself in the foot on 5th Ave. and people might forget their way to the polls.
Furthermore, The national treasure that IS Bernie Sanders mishmashes his single tone message ad-nauseum. Many don't even understand his message. He's an easy target for the right wing propaganda firing squad and, again, people might forget their way to the polls.

Did I mention age?

[Bucky]

19. I think it has to do with the details she goes into

It speaks to a more informed electrate, that is, people who spend a lot of time arguing on the internet. The rigor of argument will sharpen the focus on details. That's not necessarily a superiority over candidates who can speak in sweeping themes of social justice, which is Bernie's particular talent.

I think he elicits more passion; she elicits more problem solving and understanding. Their respective standing in the polls tells us which is the more important skill.

[keopeli]

15. Kudos and thank you for this informative project.

In spite of the lack of quantitative rigor in your survey (by no fault of your own), the quality of this report is illuminating and very informative. Even though much of the resulting data simply confirms what I can deduce without your analysis, the exhaustive detail of your work provides a level of confidence that is otherwise sorely missing in our current electoral cycle because of the unusually large field of candidates at this late date, as well as the whirlwind of distractions, misinformation, and propaganda that blows through our minds and our lives constantly in the era of Trump.

Again, thank you for sharing your skills, your time, your insights and your passion with all of us here at DU!