My super tuesday speculation

[dumptrump1]

Based on 538 and rcp averages and my stupid opinion...


Bernie wins: CA, CO, UT, WA, MA, VT, ME, Democrats Abroad
Biden wins: TN, AL, AR, OK
Tossups leaning Klobuchar: MN
Tossups leaning Bernie: VA and TX
Tossups leaning Biden: NC


We'll see what polls say tomorrow and how things shifted because of Saturday's events. If this happens, then after super tuesday,

Bernie would have had more delegates after super tuesday than Biden in MN, WA, NH, VT, ME, MA, IA, CO, VA, TX, DA, NV, CA, MN and UT

And Biden would be leading Bernie in delegates in TN, AL, AR, OK, NC and SC...

I'm clueless on where the delegate math will stand on this especially if some states are as close as 538 says they could be and who becomes unviable in which states with the continuous fluidity of the race.

[honest.abe]

1. I think Biden also wins VA, NC, and TX.

Total delegates won will be about even between Sanders and Biden.

[dumptrump1]

2. those are tossups in my opinion

But of course we can both be right about what states are won and delegates could go absolutely any way due to how delegates are divided up.

[RandySF]

3. Biden wins NC and VA and TX is a pure tossup

I agree on CA but I think Biden finishes in the 20’s.

[dumptrump1]

4. I won't pretend to know how the margins in any of these states will be

But based on who is ahead in the 538 averages (poll averages not projections), I think it will look something like this. It's crazy since how undecideds break influences so strongly how the race turns out. And there are soooooo many undecideds!!

[quakerboy]

5. What, if anything, does it mean

if Bernie wins most of the states we will win in November and Biden wins in most of the states we will likely lose in November?

[dumptrump1]

6. no clue

Probably nothing? But the turn out from the states will be an indicator of how motivated dems are in the GE regardless of who the nominee is.

[duforsure]

7. I think Biden is not going to do as well as they now want to claim

And this is all pr for him , while Bernie will win a lot more than expected. If it were only those to Bernie would get my vote after Biden already has lost to putin, trump ,and Moscow Mitch when they successfully corrupted the 2016 election, while he failed to stop them.

[bucolic_frolic]

8. Sanders is fading with little upside after Tuesday

Democrats want a strong candidate with a positive message who will fight Trump. The Biden campaign is showing skill at messaging nuances, which is important so as not to alienate the rest of the electorate. Polls from last week are old news. Voters' minds are shifting in response to the SC outcome, and Biden got a bump from a positive speech.

Nothing like a bandwagon for people to join!

[dumptrump1]

11. polls released today and conducted after saturday

Show him strong. Which means I could be understating his performance tomorrow.

[patricia92243]

9. Not too accurate if it does not include Bloomberg.

[dumptrump1]

10. bloomberg won't win 1 state

[Amishman]

12. Pete's abrupt departure leaves us in the dark

All of our polling is effectively invalid due to not including SC bump and the fallout of Pete dropping out

Funny tidbit, of the top three polling right now (Biden, Bernie, Bloomberg)... Biden is the youngest

[AGeddy]

13. LOL at VA leaning Bernie

and at NC being a "tossup"


VA is leaning heavily Biden, and NC is a lock for Biden.