538: Bloomberg Bet Big On California. It Might Not Pay Off.

[honest.abe]

It’s hard to avoid thinking of Bloomberg’s bid as a kind of political science experiment — a test of whether an elderly, extraordinarily wealthy ex-Republican can run a competitive campaign almost entirely on the basis of his own advertising and a big, generously paid staff. That experiment will play out across the country this week, when Bloomberg will finally appear on the ballot after a bizarre campaign in which he entered the race late, skipped the four early states and focused instead on winning the trove of delegates that await on Super Tuesday.

And California is, in many ways, the maximal test of Bloomberg’s strategy. He’s invested a lot in other big Super Tuesday states like Texas, but California is the state where his dollars should carry him the furthest, because its media markets are so expensive and the state’s large, diverse population makes it hard to set up an effective ground game.

His spending spree has certainly gotten him somewhere in California. Bloomberg is now polling around 13 percent in California, according to our average, up from 4 percent in January. But Californians also love to tell you about the self-funded candidates who have tried — and failed — to spend their way into public office. Take Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Michael Huffington or Al Checchi. After this Tuesday, we’ll know whether Bloomberg will join that inglorious pantheon or whether California’s unexpected contribution to the Democratic nomination process is the elevation of a self-funded billionaire’s candidacy.

Right now, it seems like Bloomberg will finish in third or fourth place even though he has spent tens of millions of dollars in the state. But after seeing Bloomberg’s swanky office, I wanted to find out how ordinary Californians were feeling about his campaign. After spending several days talking to voters across Los Angeles, one thing became clear: Bloomberg’s spending has bought him notoriety, but hasn’t translated into widespread enthusiasm.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bloomberg-bet-big-on-california-it-might-not-pay-off/

If Bloomberg's big bet fails in California, Biden will likely be the beneficiary, and not just in California but in other states where Bloomberg was polling high. It does appear the stars are aligning for a big day for Biden tomorrow.

[HopeAgain]

1. Let's hope not. NT

[lapfog_1]

2. nobody is voting for Mike

and only his paid promoters are left trying to cheer lead for the boss.

At least that is my humble opinion.

[stopbush]

6. I've been voting since 1972, and I early voted for Mike here in CA.

[TwilightZone]

3. If Bloomberg does poorly tomorrow, he needs to drop out and join the others in backing Biden.

I suspect he will, especially if Joe also has a good day.

[honest.abe]

4. Yes, I suspect you are correct.

Despite all of his negatives, he is clearly a smart man and will do the smart thing at that point.

[stopbush]

7. It all depends what Bloomberg sees as doing poorly.

His strategy is obviously to win some delegates and stay in it if there’s a brokered convention.

[TwilightZone]

8. Agreed.

It's relative, of course. He's a smart guy and has tons of analytical people on staff, so I suspect he has some thresholds in mind already.

[Moderateguy]

5. I still hope he is viable in CA along with Liz

Splitting the pie 4 ways in CA is much better than 2 ways...