Biden +20 in VA, +9 in NC, +2 in TX & down only 7 in CA according to latest polls.

[Drunken Irishman]

Wowza!

[bearsfootball516]

1. The Joementum is strong!!

GO JOE GO!!!

[SilasSouleII]

42. I heard

that we're not using that term here. Bad juju left over from Lieberman's campaign.

[Demsrule86]

2. Please let those numbers hold or get better!

[djacq]

3. VA-05 Family of 4 voted for Joe

[Recursion]

4. We got anybody running against Riggleman in the fall?

I know 5 is gerrymandered all to hell but I'd love to toss him out...

[djacq]

22. 5 each for June 2020 Primary

http://www.fauquierdemocrats.org/2020-elections

[NurseJackie]

13. Yes, he led in all those states. He was in the lead, but now things have changed.

[Celerity]

24. And there is the 800 lb gorilla in the room that many are forgetting.

A huge chunk of votes have been locked in already, and time frame in which most were cast is when Biden looked to quite possibly be damn near out. If there were zero early votes, Biden would CRUSH Bernie today, but unfortunately that is not the case.

[The_Counsel]

38. Yeah, Early Voting Might Be Problematic for Joe, BUT...

...we were saying the same thing RE: the Lyin' King in '16. Hillary was crushing him in Florida early voting, yet still lost for some reason. Maybe Joe can do this. Fingers crossed.

[Celerity]

40. Deffo fingers crossed. I do NOT want a brokered convention at all, I want a 1991 or more delegate

1st ballot Biden win, to remove a lot of the frictions points. That said, due to the problematic combination of conspiratorial and simultaneous victimhood stances that Sanders and many of his influencers out in the wilds are taking, it will be well nigh impossible to avoid all friction, unfortunately. I am all about damage limitation.

[The_Counsel]

43. Agreed. It's Time for the Party to Get on Board.

Sanders can always run third party like he should have. For all we know, he might do well going that route...

[Celerity]

44. IF he runs 3rd party, we have zero chance to dethrone Trump, zero. That is my absolute biggest

nightmare scenario.

[Amishman]

46. I don't see it happening, it makes Bernie's legacy enabling a Trump second term

I can't see him wanting that no matter how sore

[Celerity]

49. Let us all hope his voters overall feel the same. They are far less Democrtic party-friendly, far

more radical than his 2016 voting cohort was. I fear we may see an even larger defection rate (either to Trump, 3rd party, or no vote) than the 30% we saw in 2008 from Clinton Primary voters

for Clinton 2008 primary voters, around 24 or 25% voted for McCain, around 5% did not vote

https://isps.yale.edu/research/data/d130

https://sites.duke.edu/hillygus/files/2014/06/hendersonhillygustompsonPOQ.pdf



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

Another useful comparison is to 2008, when the question was whether Clinton supporters would vote for Barack Obama or John McCain (R-Ariz.) Based on data from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, a YouGov survey that also interviewed respondents multiple times during the campaign, 24 percent of people who supported Clinton in the primary as of March 2008 then reported voting for McCain in the general election.

An analysis of a different 2008 survey by the political scientists Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus and Trevor Thompson produced a similar estimate: 25 percent. (Unsurprisingly, Clinton voters who supported McCain were more likely to have negative views of African Americans, relative to those who supported Obama.)

Thus, the 6 percent or 12 percent of Sanders supporters who may have supported Trump does not look especially large in comparison with these other examples.

snip


I also dealt with Operation Chaos here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128775007#post166

which was very tiny in both number and impact in 2008. It has been vastly overstated here dozens of times just that I have seen since mid 2018, when I joined DU.

.


huge thread on it all here, with some other massive and detailed posts by me

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128775007

[still_one]

47. Sanders won't run third party. He realizes his only path is to run as a Democrat, win, lose or draw

[Dyedinthewoolliberal]

52. Lets say Joe gets the nod

he'd be money ahead to adapt some of Bernie's positions. Bernie has articulated the most succinct and clear definition of what he wants the government to look like- 'we want a government that works for all the people in America, not just the rich ones' (or words to that effect).

[Amishman]

6. Can't vote for him yet, so I bet on him instead

$850 on Joe to win the nomination (single market max on PredictIt). Even after fees, I'll double my money the way things look.

[Celerity]

25. Win on first ballot? Or just win? TIA

[Amishman]

27. to be the nominee of the party

so either first ballot or as a brokered selection, it pays out

was at 46 cents on the dollar when I bought in, now at 50 and rising.

[Celerity]

30. Smart play methinks. Good luck.

[brutus smith]

7. Go Bernie.

[LuvNewcastle]

8. That's very encouraging!

Looks a lot better than it did last week.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

9. Maybe not such a yuuge day as Sander's supporter's

Thought

Go Joe

[LovingLife]

10. I like that, but...

The hard part is with early voting - many had already voted before South Carolina results. This will impact these figures some in the early voting states.

[TexasTowelie]

12. Only 8% did early voting in Texas.

I'm not aware of the demographics as far as age or race, but my gut instinct is that most of that vote was already going for Biden.

[Celerity]

29. Yes but that is 8% of all possible voters. The percentage of actual voters will be far higher.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/03/texas-primary-elections-super-tuesday-watch/

snip

According to Democratic analyst Harold Cook, 56% of votes cast in a Democratic primary in Texas are typically cast on election day. Cook estimates Tuesday will likely be a higher percentage because “some voters held off because the presidential race has been so fluid.”

[Celerity]

26. +100

[honest.abe]

28. Blow out like SC.

This is going to be a big day for Biden.

[Botany]

14. If Biden come close to Bernie in California then Bernie is done.

Go Joe Joe.

[NBachers]

20. I'll be doing my part in California today.

[Cha]

53. Thank you!

[Mz Pip]

54. I got 2 people to vote for Biden today.

My husband and his cousin were undecided. I helped them decide. 🙂

[underpants]

31. Yeah. TEXAS and California are huge today

[honest.abe]

32. Yep. Bernie spent tons of money in CA and Biden almost nothing.

To end up with just a minor gain is a huge loss for Sanders from which I dont see him recovering. CA should have been his best state.

[mcar]

15. Wow!

[honest.abe]

16. Shaping up to be a big day for Biden!

[DownriverDem]

17. Please explain

why this morning we are seeing that Bernie will have enough delegates by tonight? Please say it isn't so!

[Happy Hoosier]

18. Relax... take a look at this. The Berners ain't gonna like this:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. Yes! What a wonderful remarkable day yesterday was. Bloomberg

has got to have the worst timing ever. Good things for Biden culminate the day before Bloomberg even sees ballot one. And then he misses the opportunity to look magnanimous and endorse Biden. What would his supporters think if he quit the day before anyone could even vote for him.

But, even though this seems to be turning out the way I have wanted it to, something seems very wrong to me that it seems impossible to win if you get in late. DNC caused a lot of that by planning debates so early too.

[bucolic_frolic]

21. A rare joint statement from Justice Dept, State Dept, FBI

Link to tweet

Philip Rucker
@PhilipRucker
Just in --> A rare joint statement from Justice Dept, State Dept, FBI, intel agencies warning on the eve of Super Tuesday elections that "foreign actors continue to try to influence public sentiment and shape voter perceptions."

_____________

You mean like Bernie Bros. Bots and some Large Orange Thing complaining about quid pro quos and the 'Democrat Corona Hoax'?

[greenjar_01]

23. The panic coming out of the

Sanders folks is pretty palpable. They're all over my social media begging Warren to drop out.

Imagine thinking Warren people switch to Sanders!

[honest.abe]

33. LOL.. Warren is not dropping out to help Sanders.

I hope she sticks it out until the end. We need her voice.

[Dopers_Greed]

34. Especially since they've spent the last few months insulting her and calling her a snake

Sanders is all but finished

[berksdem]

35. Let's roll Mr VP!

[Layzeebeaver]

36. whereas I will vote for the democratic candidate regardless of who it is...

... I just can't see an effective president being a person who suffers the same or even similar verbal foibles as Trump.

Joe is good guy - that is a given. However, he seems more and more likely to mis-speak or get confused in interviews and speeches. It concerns me.

OK LETS BE CLEAR, I support Warren... but be totally assured I will vote for Joe if he gets the nomination. Yet in my deepest heart-of-hearts I just hope we can put someone in the office that is not a visage of our past, but rather a visage of our future.

Running a campaign based on 2008 thinking/memories is a very poor choice IMO.I get the impression that Joe is running a campaign that is basically a "Rewind the clock" message. We might win the current battle with this, but we will not win the War.

We need to think and vote bigger and longer. We might well win with Joe - that is for sure, but we also might lose later if we continue this sameness of thinking.

[Docreed2003]

37. Things have changed...I hope it holds!

[Duppers]

39. Beto will pull in TX votes for Joe. nt

[Duppers]

41. My family is voting for the candidate that beats tRump.

And we perceive that candidate to be Biden. Bernie brings in the younger voters but most Americans are terrified of the word socialism.

[Sloumeau]

45. The early votes are liable to be less favorable to Joe than the later ones.

I hope enough people waited to cast their ballots.

[still_one]

48. I think no one should not count their chickens before they are hatched, and would be very skeptical

of any polls right now

[elleng]

51. CA polls open until 11 p.m. Eastern time.